Last year I made a bet with a friend of mine about Major League Baseball.
The bet was: Who could more accurately predict the 2008 Major League Baseball season's final standings, league champions, and World Series winner?
In my predictions for '08, I had Detroit beating Seattle in the Division Series, then beating the BoSox in the ALCS. In my National League bracket, I had the Diamondbacks defeating the Mets in the NLDS, followed by a swift 6 game shellacking of the Rockies in the League Championship series, then finally going on to win the World Series title in a hard-fought 7 game series against a potent Tigers offense.
Only one of those previously mentioned teams was even in the 2008 playoffs...
And I still won the bet.
So considering how erratic a baseball season can be with so many factors you really can't account for (Manny becoming a Dodger mid-season, Tulowitzki tearing a quad, Tampa Bay...you know winning), I decided I'd make a follow up prediction for this season. I'm just that arrogant.
But not only that, I'm going to explain why they're right, in six separate installments for each division. So here we go, starting with the AL East.
1st place goes to...
The Boston Red Sox.
Sorry Rays, I love you and hope you do win the division, but no team in baseball is more complete than the Dark Pink Hosiery. Their lineup is solid one through nine, so if anyone gets hurt, they have six other All-stars to cover for it.
And their lineup possesses every quality you'd want. Speed at the top with Ellsbury, followed by patient contact hitters in Pedroia and Youkilis, and then big gun, home run hittin' machines in Ortiz, Bay, and Drew.
Their pitching depth is amazing. Smoltz is their sixth man. Sixth! He was the ace of the Braves staff last year before getting hurt. Clay Buchholz, third youngest pitcher ever to throw a no-hitter, is in the bullpen!
They have Takashi Saito, the closer for the Dodgers last year, pitching in middle relief behind Papelbon, Okajima, and Masterson. Overall, amazingly talented. It's unfair. But the team that comes close in second place...
The Tampa Bay Rays.
The second most complete team in baseball happens to be in the same division. It's really a coin flip for who will win the crown, but I give the edge to the Red Sox only because of their superior bullpen.
Tampa Bay's offense and defense got an upgrade with the addition of Burrell. Evan "The Natural" Longoria can actually get better next year now that he has some seasoning. Upton, Crawford, and Pena make it a fearsome 1-5.
Their starting pitching will get better with Price in the rotation, and Isringhausen is a great insurance policy for those short DL stints Troy Percival's sure to receive.
Basically the best team in the American League last year...got better. But I still think their bullpen overachieved in '08 and will struggle a bit more this season.
Speaking of overachieving expectations, in third place...
The New York Yankees.
Nope, they won't make the playoffs this year either. I feel like this one deserves quite the explanation considering all their spending to avoid a repeat of last season.
Yes, The addition of CC Sabathia is nice, but beyond that, what is there?
AJ Burnett I'm not sold on. He'll either get hurt, pitch in a mediocre manner, or both. He can strike guys out, but his ERA hovers around 4.00, which isn't anything special.
Plus, he's not exactly the most motivated person unless a contract year is forthcoming. If he struggles even a little, it could snowball a lot.
Wang is a poor man's Brandon Webb, which is fine, but again nothing special. He's followed by Pettite, who I think we all can agree is past his prime.
Joba Chamberlain rounds out the rotation in his first full year as a starter, which weakens their bullpen, a bullpen that is solid, but nothing to write home about (outside of Rivera.)
That brings me to my next point as to why the Bronx Bombers won't make the playoffs. Age. Mariano Rivera. 39. Jorge Posada. 37. Johnny Damon. 35. Derek Jeter. 34. Hideki Matsui. 34. If it were 2003, that would be the best lineup in baseball. And these players are all still good.
But without A-Rod, Teixiera is the only relatively young (28) big bopper they have with capabilities of a 30+ homer, 100+ RBI season. The other players previously mentioned are entering or are already in the twilight of their respective careers.
And the back-up plan for A-Rod? Cody Ransom. This guy's best friend doesn't even know he plays for the Yankees. Sorry, the most vaunted lineup in baseball can't have the names Cody Ransom and Brett Gardner in it. Not in my America.
A-Rod will return, but we saw what happens to this Yankee team under duress without Joe Torre at the helm. It just doesn't have the same character it had when he was in charge. And with all the baggage that A-Rod brings, I don't think they have the make-up to push through it.
So no, the Yankees come in third with 82-89 wins. In fourth place,...
The Toronto Blue Jays.
This is also a coin flip for Least in the East. I could see the Orioles overtaking fourth place and pushing the Blue Jays to the cellar, and the only reason I'm taking the Blue Jays here rather than in last place is because of Roy Halladay and Jesse Litsch.
The Orioles have no starting pitching, whereas the Blue Jays will win at least 25-30 games simply because of these two.
Other than that, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios do not make you a championship contender. Not with an infield of Rod Barajas, Lyle Overbay, Aaron Hill, Scott Rolen, and John McDonald (McDonald, if you don't know, is a career .236 hitter with 9 homers. But he's got room to grow at the tender age of 34. Hot prospect to watch.)
A healthy BJ Ryan could make them competitive, and Adam Lind could be a nice surprise, but this team is looking like last year's Giants with a little more pop in the line up.
And finally, in fifth place...
The Baltimore Orioles.
I want to pick them as a sleeper team, because offensively, they're actually not bad. Matt Wieters, currently slated as the backup catcher, is rated the No. 2 overall prospect in baseball (behind David Price).
Adam Jones will soon be a star and Nick Markakis already is. A solid infield as well with Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora, and options of Ty Wigginton and Aubrey Huff for the DH. Definitely a chance to put a few crooked numbers on the scoreboard with that group.
But their pitching is uglier than an 80-year-old man rollerblading in just Umbros. That may seem like a ridiculous comparison, but it's not. Look at their starting rotation. Jeremy Guthrie (Sure, he's ok.) Koji Uehara (Uhm, ok young prospect or-?) Nope. He's 34 and doesn't strike out a lot of guys. (Yeah well...yeah ok who else?)
They don't know. But here are some of the names floating around on their list. Rich Hill. (Didn't he...I thought he went all Rick Ankiel with the Cubs and couldn't throw a curveball anymore.) Yep. And he still can't according to a pitching coach who nearly got hit in the head standing in the box trying to observe Hill's classic yakker. (Huh...well now the 80 year old man thing is starting to make sen-)
Adam Eaton. (He...no he's terrible why would you even give him a chance?) Danys Baez (That guy didn't even play one game of Major League Baseball last year.) Yeah. It's that bad.
The bullpen is fine with Sherrill, Ray, and Sarfate. How early the opposition gets to the bullpen is where the problem lies. They've got a lot of long reliever positions available because of it.
Matt Albers and former Tampa Bay Ray Mark Hendrickson will see most of the action when things get bad early, which, unfortunately for these young upstarts, will be often.
So that's the AL EAST predictions for 2009.
Next up will be the AL CENTRAL when I get some extra free time.
Until then, feel free to use these facts to tell your friends they're wrong when they say the Yankees will be great this year.
- Login to post comments