The Angels won the A.L. West again last season after posting a record of 97-65, but the team that takes the field on Opening Day will be substantially different than the one that eliminated the Boston Red Sox in the 2009 ALDS.
One year after losing slugging 1B Mark Teixeira and closer Francisco Rodriguez via free agency, the Halos again endured an offseason in which they lost players who were key contributors to their success. This winter they lost their staff ace, one of their key arms in the bullpen, and a pair of productive bats. In their place, GM Tony Reagans brought in a journeyman pitcher, a power-armed reliever and an aging outfielder. The other bat will be replaced by a rookie of infinite potential (3B Brandon Wood) who has never lived up to expectations.
With these changes in place, it seems inevitable the club will take a giant step backwards in 2010 and be overtaken by the much-improved Seattle Mariners for the division title.
Key Additions: DH/OF Hideki Matsui, P Joel Pineiro and P Fernando Rodney
Key Subtractions: 3B Chone Figgins, DH/OF Vladimir Guerrero, P John Lackey, OF Gary Matthews Jr., and P Darren Oliver
Key Performer, 2010: RHP Joel Pineiro
Starting Rotation
The departure of John Lackey from the top of the rotation will be difficult to overcome. Although he was injured during each of the last two springs and started each season on the disabled list, he has nonetheless been a rock of consistency throughout his career. Despite the arm woes, he has pitched 160+ innings each season. He continuously posted double-digits in wins, a sub-4.00 ERA, a sub-1.30 WHIP, and a K:BB ratio of 3.0 or better. His performance in the first half of 2009 was brutal (2-3, 5.08, 1.53), but he shook off the arm trouble that afflicted him earlier and was outstanding in the second half (9-5, 3.21, 1.16).
Manager Mike Scioscia will rely on RHP Jered Weaver (16-8, 3.75, 1.24) to assume the role of staff ace. While the 27 year old would seem to have the raw talent to shoulder the responsibility, it remains to be seen if his head is up to the task. After a rough 2008 campaign, he rebounded nicely last year. His metrics suggest that he might not be quite as good as his numbers indicate (xERA of 4.38) due to a lower-than-expected hit rate (29%) and an unacceptably high fly ball ratio (50%). Southpaw Scott Kazmir will likely slot into the rotation behind Weaver. Much like Lackey, he had a rough start to the 2009 season due to injury problems (quad and forearm issues) that lingered for much of the year. He found himself after arriving in Los Angeles and pitched surprisingly well down the stretch (2-2, 1.73, 1.05), reminding everyone of the reason he once was the ace of the Tampa Bay rotation.
After the top two, the rotation is (in my opinion) quite mediocre. While many pundits are enamored of both Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders, I’m not a fan of either hurler. Santana (8-8, 5.03) was always a bit of a head case, but he put things together nicely in 2008, thus providing hope for the future. Alas, elbow problems make him an injury risk and robbed him of 3-4 mph on the fastball and some of the bite in his slider last year. Saunders (16-7, 4.60) is clearly overachieving and is due to come crashing back to Earth. While he posted a nice win total, his underlying metrics reveal a skill set that is more in line with a pitcher who has a losing record. He posted an xERA of 4.66, a WHIP of 1.43, and a K:BB rate of just 1.6… furthermore, he surrendered 1.4 HR/9 IP. Taken in combination, his performance resulted in a RAR of minus-3.3 (these are certainly not the kind of stats usually associated with a 16-game winner).
Pineiro fits into the back of the rotation, but its my guess that he’ll be a poor replacement for Lackey, who is now toiling in Boston. He had an outstanding year under the tutelage of pitching coach Dave Duncan in St Louis (15-12, 3.49), but Duncan won’t be heading west with him and he is likely to rev
rt back to the pitcher he has always been (he was 8-13, 6.37 in his last full year in an A.L. rotation). It says here he will not be able to sustain a ground ball rate of 60% and a K:BB ratio of 3.9 for the Angels in 2010—or in any other year.
Bullpen
Brian Fuentes posted 48 saves—but that number masks the struggles he had in his first season as the Angels closer. He had a 3.93 ERA, a 4.60 xERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and nine blown saves… and his second half could be the harbinger of a brutal 2010 (4.19 ERA, 5.71 xERA, 1.54 WHIP… additionally, his command (K:BB ratio) was just 1.1 and he surrendered home runs at the rate of 1.3 per 9 IP).
With that in mind, the front office brought in Fernando Rodney from Detroit, although his underlying metrics aren’t really any better than Fuentes (4.33 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 1.6 Command). His command is horrendous (4.7 BB/9 IP), but he manages to keep the ball on the ground (57% last year) providing hope that he could be a capable closer should Fuentes struggle again.
The depth chart includes guys like Jason Bulger (6-1, 3.56) , Kevin Jepsen (6-4, 4.94) and Matt Palmer (11-2, 3.93). Beyond Fuentes and Rodney the key reliever may well be Scot Shields (1-3, 6.61), the veteran whose performance was uncharacteristically bad last year, likely as a result of patella tendinitis.
Lineup
The lineup will be missing 3B Chone Figgins (.298, 5 HR, 54 RBI, 42 SB) and OF Vlad Guerrero (.295/15/50). They will be replaced by Wood (.195/1/3) and Yankees castoff Hideki Matsui (.274/28/90 in 383 AB). Figgins was the catalyst for the offense (114 R) and will be missed. Guerrero has had trouble staying on the playing field and his skills are on the decline, but he posed a significant threat.
SS Erick Aybar (.312/5/58, with 14 SB and 70 R) will replace Figgins in the leadoff spot. He doesn’t yet have Figgins overall offensive skill set, but he has the potential to do the same kinds of things. RF Bobby Abreu (.293, 15 HR, 103 RBI) and CF Torii Hunter (.299, 22 HR, 90 RBI) will bat second and third respectively, setting the tables for Matsui and 1B Kendry Morales (.306, 34 HR, 108 RBI), who finally proved to be worth the wait for the Angels.
LF Juan Rivera (.287, 25 HR, 88 RBI) gives the lineup the power bat it needs to protect Morales. Each spring, baseball pundits declare that this may be the year that 2B Howie Kendrick (.291, 10 HR, 61 RBI) finally establishes himself as the kind of hitter who should be batting near the top of the lineup… we are still waiting. C Mike Napoli (.272, 20 HR, 56 RBI) will bat eighth and Wood will bat ninth.
Outlook
As I said earlier, the Angels should score lots of runs, but there will be nights that just won’t be good enough. The ballclub will go as far as the rotation will take it, but that likely will fall short of another division title and postseason appearance.
SOX1Forecast: 85-77, 2nd place
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Los Angeles Angels—Top Five Prospects
1. C Hank Conger
2. P Fabio Martinez
3. P Trevor Reckling
4. OF Peter Bourjos
5. OF Mike Trout
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