2009 Record: 87-76
2010 Prediction: 88-74
Predicted Finish: 2nd
Offensive Projections:
http://www.fan-exchange.com/mlb/teamhittingpredictions.asp?userid=53&franchid=MIN&yearid=2010
Pitching Projections:
http://www.fan-exchange.com/mlb/teampitchingpredictions.asp?userid=53&franchid=MIN&yearid=2010
Incoming:
Orlando Hudson, J.J. Hardy
Outgoing:
Carlos Gomez
Strengths:
Offense, Management, Defense
Weaknesses:
Health, Starting Pitching
Questions:
Can Morneau and Mauer stay healthy all season?
Which J.J. Hardy did they get in a trade?
How will a move from the Metrodome affect them?
How will the nasty spring weather in Minnesota affect their start?
Can they live up to expectations?
Overview:
Minnesota has quiety had a good offseason. They swapped disappointing players (Carlos Gomez for J.J. Hardy) with the Brewers. They let the bottom drop out of the free agent market and signed Orlando Hudson. They also signed Jim Thome to share DH duties and pitch hit.
The one area I felt they needed to improve on—and they didn't make any changes—was starting pitching.
Minnesota has what I would call an average starting rotation. Not one pitcher had a sub 4.00 ERA in 2009 and all but one starter had a WHIP close to 1.40. Minnesota is also gambling too much on Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano having good years. Unless Perkins or Duensing can come into the rotation and succeed, I just don't think Minnesota has a good starting rotation.
While Minnesota's starting rotation may be a liability, their relief pitching is an asset. Their bullpen is anchored by Joe Nathan, who has been one of the most dominant closers in baseball the past few years. Nathan has a great supporting cast of Rauch, Mijares, Guerrier and Condrey.
What was once known as a pitching and defense team has quietly become one of the better offensive teams in the American League.
In 2009, Minnesota hit 172 homeruns and scored 817 runs. One has to assume that moving from a dome to an open roof stadium in Minnesota will slow their offense a bit. Minneapolis has an average low of 36 degrees and average high of 57 degrees in April. And it will probably be a wet cold too. I think this will slow their bats out of the gates and I don't feel they have the pitching to support slow hitting. Look for Minnesota to start slowly this year but then pick it back up in the second half.
Minnesota's infield defense will be one of the better ones in baseball. Hardy and Hudson form a great double play combo and Morneau is solid at 1st. As of right now it looks like Tolbert will get the nod at 3B. He is decent, but nothing special for defense or offense.
Summary:
I think Minnesota has a good team but ultimately I think pitching will win and they don't have the starting rotation to win the division. Their team is good enough to battle it out, but I think they will come up short.
Projections/Predictions Competition:
I have a group competition for stat projections and standings projections setup on www.fan-exchange.com for anyone that is interested. They will score and rank us for accuracy at the end of the season. Sign-up then add the following groups if you are interested.
Stat Competition
ID: 12
Password: statsbr
Standings Competition
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Password: bleacher544
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