The Tampa Bay Rays took home their second AL East title in the last three years in 2010 by finishing with a 96-66 record. A quick exit in the Divisional Round at the hands of the Texas Rangers would soon follow.
After what took place this offseason, the Rays went from being a serious World Series contender back to a small-market wannabe. Tampa Bay lost Carl Crawford (their best player ever) to the Red Sox, Carlos Pena (their best home run hitter) to the Cubs, and Jason Bartlett (their best shortstop ever) to San Diego.
To top it off, closer Rafael Soriano decided to sign with the New York Yankees and No. 2 starter Matt Garza was traded to the Cubs. Take a look at how these losses will affect this organization by checking out my MLB predictions on Tampa Bay below.
Projected Lineup
With the losses of Pena and Crawford, Tampa Bay is need a monster season out of third baseman Evan Longoria more than ever in 2011. Longoria has the talent to carry this offense, but you have to wonder how much opposing teams are even going to pitch to him.
Longoria has 82 home runs and 302 RBIs over the last three seasons, and has only gotten better with each season. The Rays are hoping the additions of Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez will help ease the losses this offseason, but both will have to rebound from a disappointing 2010 season.
Damon, who figures to bat leadoff, watched his home run totals fall from 24 to eight and at 37 it's hard to imagine a big turn around. Ramirez turns 39 in May, but if he comes into the season focused, we think he could really help this team win games.
Another player the Rays will really count on this season is B.J. Upton, who needs to return to the form of 2007 when he hit .300 with 24 home runs.
The rest of the lineup is full of question marks, and you really don't know what to expect out of this bunch. Right fielder Ben Zobrist has one of the best eyes in the game, but his home runs totals dropped from 27 in 2009 to just 10 last season.
First baseman Dan Johnson really impressed the Rays down the stretch with two game winning home runs, and it will be interesting to see what he does in a full season.
Shortstop Reid Brignac and second baseman Sean Rodriguez showed a little of what they are capable of producing last year, and how they perform this year will have a big impact on whether or not the Rays can continue to contend in the AL East.
Catcher John Jaso had a pretty solid first season in the majors, and Tampa Bay is hoping that by dropping him in the lineup he will be able to show some big improvements this year.
Projected Rotation
With Garza no longer in the picture, Tampa Bay's only sure starter this year is ace David Price, who won 19 games with a 2.72 ERA in 2010, and the 24-year old only figures to get better as he matures and develops his secondary pitches to go along with his 95-mph fastball.
If Tampa Bay is going to win this year it will be because the other four starters in this rotation improved off last year. Jeff Niemann started the year on fire, going 6-0 in his first 12 starts, but struggled down the stretch, going 5-8 over his final 17 starts. If he can find some consistency and pitch like he did to start 2010, Tampa Bay will have a solid No. 2 or No.3 starter.
Wade Davis also had a bit of a roller coaster season. He went just 2-8 with a 5.58 ERA in an 11-start stretch, but was 10-2 with a 3.30 ERA in all other starts.
James Shields continues to give up a ton of extra base hits; he has led all of baseball with 379 over the last five years. He has to find a way to lower those numbers and improve off his 13-15 finish to last year.
Jeremy Hellickson was the minor league pitcher of the year in 2010, and was 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA with Tampa Bay. If he can put together a complete season, he could really surprise this season.
2011 Projection: 3rd Place AL East
General Manager Andrew Friedman said it best, “To have a business model that’s based on being right more than anyone else, it’s not really a lasting business model. We relish the fact that we have to swim against the tide. It’s just that the current is getting stronger.”
To translate that for you, the Yankees and Red Sox are spending a lot more money, our power and bullpen are shaky at best, and even if things go as well as possible, we’ll still finish third in the division.
I don’t believe the cupboard is bare here, but with the losses the Rays suffered in the offseason, they will not be able to keep up with Boston and New York again. Tampa Bays MLB odds to win the AL East this season are currently listed at +800.
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