The fact that the Toronto Blue Jays were able to finish the year with a winning record (85-77) in the tough AL East last season was an accomplishment in itself. Still, it isn't likely they will put to rest a near-two decade playoff drought. The Blue Jays topped the league with an amazing 257 home runs last season, but they can’t expect to get that kind of production again. Plus, their pitching staff lacks a shutdown ace, but Brandon Morrow and Kyle Drabek have the potential to earn that label. Find out how the Blue Jays will fare in the AL East this season with our MLB predictions below.
Projected Lineup
Toronto lost a big chunk of its power with the departure of Vernon Wells to the Angels, but still figure to display one of the top offenses in the majors again this year. Toronto will be hoping for a similar season from Jose Bautista, who went off for 54 home runs and 124 RBI in 2010. Bautista will be making the switch from the outfield to third base this season, and Toronto will be thrilled with anything close to the stats he put up last year.
Adam Lind is another player the Blue Jays will be relying on for a solid year, as he makes the move to first base. Lind is coming off a year where he hit just .237 with 23 home runs, but needs to bounce back and become the hitter he was in 2009 when he hit .305 with 35 home runs. Second baseman Aaron Hill also struggled to get going in 2010 after an impressive 2009 campaign, where he hit .286 with 36 home runs and 108 RBI.
Edwin Encarnacion will make the move from third base to DH this season, as he really struggled in the field last season. Encarnacion also was bothered by injuries, which limited him to just 332 at-bats, but he still managed to hit 21 home runs. The Blue Jays also have high hopes for newly acquired center fielder Rajai Davis, who has 91 stolen bases over the last two years, and should be a productive leadoff hitter for this organization.
Catcher J.P. Arencibia got off to a great start with two home runs in his debut last August, but really struggled after that. Arencibia did win the Pacific Coast League MVP, and it figures to be only a matter of time before he is a big force in this lineup. Toronto acquired Juan Rivera in the Wells trade, and is hoping he can produce like he did in 2009 when he hit .287 with 25 home runs and 88 RBI. Right fielder Travis Snider and shortstop Yunel Escobar are two up-and-coming players, who could have breakout seasons in 2011.
Projected Rotation
With Shaun Marcum now a member of the Brewers, the Blue Jays have a ton of question marks surrounding their rotation, and for them to compete this season, they need even better years from both Ricky Romero and Morrow.
Romero is 27-18 with a 3.99 ERA in his first two years, and showed improvement with a 3.73 ERA in 2010. Morrow went 10-7 with a 4.49 ERA in his first full season as a starter, and posted a 10.9 SO/9 mark, which has us thinking he is only going to get better. Brett Cecil went 15-7 with a 4.22 ERA, but benefited from the offense scoring 5.9 runs per game in his starts.
Kyle Drabek is another pitcher who could break out this season. Drabek went 0-3 in three starts with the Blue Jays last season, but will get his chance to display what he can do over a full season. Jesse Litsch and Marc Rzepczynski will battle it out for the fifth and final spot in the rotation.
2011 Projection: Fourth Place AL East
Toronto seems to have direction and a coherent strategy for the first time in quite some time. A lot of credit needs to be given to general manager Alex Anthopoulos has done an amazing job, and we really like the hiring of new manager John Farrell. Toronto can slug it out with the Red Sox and Yankees, but simply doesn't have the pitching staff to win the division. At least it doesn’t appear that way, though there is a ton of potential here in Drabek, Morrow, Romero and Cecil who are all steadily improving. The Blue Jays' MLB odds to win the AL East are currently listed at +2000
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