Call it a patchwork rotation, a makeshift rotation or even a hit-or-miss rotation, but I think we all can believe one thing: Now that Pettitte has officially retired, the Yankees rotation is in shambles.
There are essentially three locks in the Yankees rotation at this point. CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes and A.J. Burnett will occupy the first three slots in the Yankees rotation in 2011.
Out of the three, the only sure thing is CC Sabathia. The Yankees can count on the big left-hander for upwards of 200 innings, 30 starts and at least 15-17 wins. After Sabathia, the rotation gets iffy.
Hughes had a fantastic season last year. Although everyone knew of his potential, the Yankees never expected the season that they received from the young righty. He pitched to an 18-8 record in 29 starts (31 games) with a 4.19 ERA. Hughes struck out 146 in 176.1 innings.
To expect the same from Hughes this season would be just stupid.
Hughes clearly has the potential to be a consistent major league starter, but until we see it for a few years straight, we can't bank on it every single season. He's still young and developing, so he could realistically hit a snag within the next season or two.
A good prediction for Hughes this season would be 15 wins with a similar ERA in about as many innings. Look for his strikeout totals to increase this season, though, as he is beginning to learn the ins and outs of the AL East's biggest bats.
A.J. Burnett is far from a sure thing. He has great seasons, then terrible seasons. Last season was neither great nor terrible.
It was atrocious.
He compiled a 10-15 record (never before has he had a winning percentage that low in a full season) and pitched to a 5.26 ERA. His strikeout numbers were noticeably low (145 in 186.2 innings) and he struggled with control, walking 78 and hitting 19.
Maybe there was an undisclosed injury that he was hiding from the team. Who knows? We just know that this type of production (or lack thereof) from Burnett is unacceptable for this 2011 season. The Yankees need him to be the pitcher they signed after the 2008 season.
He is an intense pitcher and lacked that emotion on the mound last season. Maybe if he harnesses that intensity, he can revert back to his old self. If not, the Yankees may look to sell low and trade him midseason.
As I covered in a separate piece just a few days ago, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre will be battling for the final two spots in the rotation. Recently, I have also heard Andrew Brackman's name come up in discussions for the final spot. Regardless, none of the five are sure things.
Some of the names even scare me.
As a Yankees fan, I do not want to see either Colon or Mitre even touch a baseball. If the Yankees can find a way to keep them off the roster, then that right there is a success.
I can live with Garcia and Nova in the fourth and fifth slots, respectively. Nova showed some promise in limited time last season and Garcia is coming off a bounce-back campaign with the White Sox.
Because Pettitte chose to retire, the Yankees rotation is left in complete disarray. After Sabathia, the Yankees really need to get lucky.
Brian Cashman is Brian Cashman though, and I'm sure we'll see a trade or two before the deadline to sure up the rotation. Joe Blanton is rumored to be available and I've even heard Chris Carpenter's name being floated around.
I'm not sure how reliable that rumor is but, hey, you never know.
For now, we'll celebrate the successes of Pettitte's career and worry about baseball when it's time to worry about baseball.
Congratulations to Andy Pettitte for a great career, and have a happy retirement. For all the hard-fought years you have put into the Yankees, you deserve this more than anyone.
*If you missed the first part of the series, click the link!
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