Can Rajai Davis Steal 75-80 Bases for the Oakland A's in 2010?

I love players who have confidence. Give me the guy who thinks he is the best over the guy who is just happy to have a job in the major leagues.

Take Ricky Henderson, for example. A lot of people didn’t like him because they felt he was arrogant. I just thought he was extremely confident in his abilities.

I mean, who doesn’t want a guy who refers to himself in the third person on their team?

Whatever you think of Henderson, there is no denying he was the greatest base stealer of all time. He turned base stealing into an art form and walks and singles into doubles and triples.

Now that his playing days are long behind him, Henderson is trying to instill some of that confidence and base stealing techniques into today’s players.

Henderson has been at the Oakland A’s camp this year and apparently is rubbing off on A’s outfielder Rajai Davis. After working with Henderson, Davis believes he can steal 75-80 bases in his sleep.

I am not sure if it will be that easy, but it does raise the question. Can Davis steal 75-80 bases in 2010?

I say he is going to be hard-pressed in accomplishing that feat. The main reason being I don’t feel Davis will get on base enough in 2010 to steal that many bases.

Last year, Davis hit .305 with a .360 OBP. That OBP allowed him to steal 41 bases. History shows Davis won’t have that average or OBP again.

From 2006 to 2008, Davis posted a combined .256 average with a .314 OBP. Those numbers won’t be good enough to steal 80 bases. It’s just not going to happen.

Let’s say Davis falls somewhere between that and his 2009 season. That would be a .275 average and a .330 OBP. Even with 500-600 at-bats, those numbers wouldn’t be good enough to steal 75-80 bases.

Jacoby Ellsbury led the American League in stolen bases in 2009 with 70 and he hit .301 and had an OBP of .355. Davis would have to pretty much repeat his 2009 season in order to steal more bases than Ellsbury.

I think Davis will steal in the neighborhood of 50-60 bases, not the 80 he has so confidently predicted.

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