If nine games doesn't limit Thursday's daily fantasy baseball choices enough, the action disperses into separate slates throughout the day.
With start times stretching from 12:10 p.m. to 10:15 p.m. ET, DraftKings gamers will tackle their DFS lineups through afternoon and/or evening contests. Only so many roster combinations exist with four early and five evening bouts, limiting the margin of error for all participants.
On the bright side, there's less noise to silence when researching the player pool. It's easier to dive deep into every matchup and uncover optimal selections.
Afternoon
SP Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets ($11,100) vs. Colorado
Are you really going to pay $12,200 for Sonny Gray against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Rogers Centre? Of course not. Don't be silly. Noah Syndergaard looked mortal during his last start, but trust Thor to hurl a bounce-back gem against the Colorado Rockies.
Even after Saturday's five-run struggle, the rookie righty holds a 3.01 ERA, 2.86 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and 9.67 strikeouts per nine innings. Still weary of the neophyte? Consider his steep home-road splits, hardly uncommon for a newcomer:
Away from Coors Field, the Colorado Rockies failed to score a run against Matt Harvey or Jacob deGrom on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Count on Syndergaard to continue their turmoil at Citi Field.
SP Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs ($10,800) vs. Milwaukee
The other attractive ace going early, Jon Lester has overcome a slow start to sport a 3.22 ERA, 2.95 FIP and 8.96 K/9. He has especially dominated over his last seven starts, dating back to July 1:
Expect the Chicago Cubs southpaw to extend those good times against the Milwaukee Brewers, who rank second-to-last in weighted on-base average (wOBA) against southpaws. Pairing Syndergaard and Lester represents the safe and sensible plan, but those unwilling to pay for both should make Lester their top priority.
C Josh Phegley ($3,300) and 3B/OF Danny Valencia ($3,500), Oakland Athletics at Toronto
Rather than trust Mark Buehrle's 3.34 ERA accrued in spite of a 4.32 K/9, implement a pair of Oakland Athletics who thrive against lefties.
Sporting a .398 wOBA off opposite-handed hurlers, Josh Phegley should get the nod behind the plate. Those stellar splits scream for exposure as a $3,300 catcher.
A curious cut by the Toronto Blue Jays, Danny Valencia is hitting .308/.348/.557 this season, blasting three homers in six games with Oakland. Generating a career .326/.369/.500 line versus lefties, the 30-year-old gets a golden opportunity to make his old employer jealous.
3B Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins ($3,800) vs. Texas
Miguel Sano won't keep juggling a .295 batting average and 32.8 strikeout percentage, but it's awfully hard to pass on someone with a .476 wOBA and 48.9 hard-hit percentage against righties. He gets a weak one in Alex "Chi Chi" Gonzalez, who has submitted more walks (19) than strikeouts (15) through 43.1 innings.
The Minnesota Twins rookie is due for regression, but not nearly as much as the Texas Rangers novice. Besides, his $3,800 price tag reflects the untrustworthy .419 batting average on balls in play (BABIP).
Evening
SP Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates ($11,000) at St. Louis
In his second start back, Stephen Strasburg is shaky for $10,900 against the San Francisco Giants, who lead baseball in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) versus righties. That leaves Francisco Liriano and Lance Lynn, who square off Thursday, as the evening's lone aces. Taking both and hoping for one victory in a low-scoring game is fine, but given the St. Louis Cardinals' struggles against southpaws, Liriano gets the edge.
St. Louis ranks No. 23 in wOBA versus lefties with a 23.1 strikeout percentage. Although shaky in his last two starts, Liriano still boasts a 10.02 K/9, sixth-highest among qualified starters, and a 53.4 ground-ball percentage.
SP Nathan Eovaldi, New York Yankees ($7,700) at Cleveland
There aren't many intriguing midcard starters to target Thursday, but Nathan Eovaldi is the most playable budget-saver beyond the five-figure aces. Since getting annihilated by the Miami Marlins (0.2 innings, eight runs) on June 16, he has registered a 2.85 ERA while allowing three or fewer runs during all nine starts.
He also averages an underwhelming 5.2 innings per start and doesn't punch people out despite throwing gas. For anyone impressed by his 11-2 record, maybe stay away from DFS.
Lefties crush him, making Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana significant obstacles. But at least he doesn't have to deal with the injured Jason Kipnis or traded Brandon Moss when facing a suddenly lackluster Cleveland Indians lineup. This is a lukewarm endorsement, but he beats playing Buehrle.
OF Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals ($5,200) at San Francisco
Lefties have obliterated Ryan Vogelsong to a .532 slugging percentage this season, accounting for 13 of his 15 relinquished long balls. Bryce Harper is a pretty darn good lefty with a .677 slugging percentage and 24 dingers off righties.
Since he hasn't homered since July 29, his price didn't rise to unspeakable heights. Although $5,200 is typically a lot of money to throw at one slugger, Harper looks like a bargain at that going rate.
OFs Kole Calhoun ($4,100) and David Murphy ($2,500), Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City
How can one afford Liriano and Harper? Turn to David Murphy, who costs a minuscule $2,500 in a perfect matchup against Jeremy Guthrie. Despite his current splits, the new Los Angeles Angels outfielder owns a career .345 wOBA against his preferred foe.
Meanwhile, lefties demolish the Kansas City Royals veteran to a tune of .332/.393/.542 and 13 homers. After looking at those brutal numbers, let's take Kole Calhoun for the ride as well.
Note: All advanced stats are courtesy of FanGraphs.
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