Summer's final Saturday MLB slate gets the party started early with a pair of afternoon rivalry matchups. As all 30 teams compete during the day, players will have to carefully study the DraftKings catalog for bargains.
The Toronto Blue Jays face lefty Wade Miley in the afternoon, and Clayton Kershaw takes the hill during the evening. If contestants want to pay up for those studs, they'll need to enforce a tight budget elsewhere.
These value plays will save a buck or two in afternoon and evening lineups. After all, can you really not play Kershaw the way he's pitching?
Afternoon
SP Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals ($9,200) vs. Miami
Oof. That's the best way to describe the afternoon's probable starting pitchers. Even if he's overpriced based on his performance, Jordan Zimmermann is a near must-start given the situation.
Below his $9,200 price point, Mike Leake is the most acceptable choice. Given his 16.3 strikeout percentage, he's merely a No. 2 starter investors hope pieces together a quality start and stumbles into a win over the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Washington Nationals righty at least gets the Miami Marlins, who rank fourth-to-last in weighted on-base average (wOBA) with baseball's second fewest homers (110) behind the Atlanta Braves.
Zimmermann's 2.68 fielding independent pitching (FIP) from 2014 has risen a full run this year, and his ERA has jumped accordingly from 2.66 to 3.51. His strikeout percentage has also dipped three points to 19.8, so this is all about chasing a high-floor option in a group full of risky choices. In four starts against Miami this season, he has limited the NL East opponent to seven earned runs.
SS Ian Desmond ($3,600), Washington Nationals vs. Miami
Staying in Washington, the Nationals will tee off against lefty Justin Nicolino, who has registered a 4.86 FIP and 8.0 strikeout percentage through nine career MLB starts. Righties have already torched him for 19 extra-base hits, so stack away on Washington bats.
Bryce Harper will cost a boatload of money ($6,100), but Ian Desmond resides at a reasonable $3,600. Using the All-Star break as a convenient arbitrary endpoint, the usually superb fantasy shortstop has rebounded from a horrid start to hit .269/.329/.472 with 11 homers and seven steals over the second half.
Expanding the sample size, he boasts a career .336 wOBA against lefties. Be grateful DraftKings didn't inflate his price due to a lack of healthy shortstop talent in the afternoon slate.
OF David Peralta ($3,100), Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco
David Peralta continues to fall out of favor for no reason. The Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder carries a .904 OPS against righties into the weekend. While his 13-game hitting streak is littered mostly with one-hit efforts, he's certainly not slumping either.
Trading a hitter's park for a pitcher's palace isn't enough to fade him at $3,100. A consistent bargain throughout the year, keep riding Peralta down the finish line, starting Saturday against an average righty in Leake.
Evening
SP Jerad Eickhoff ($7,400), Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
An unlikely pick in nearly any other circumstance, Jerad Eickhoff suddenly jumps off the page because of his opponent.
The only franchise as downtrodden as the Philadelphia Phillies, the Braves have scored an MLB-low 176 runs since the All-Star break. The Los Angeles Angels rank No. 29 with 218 runs. Atlanta also places last in slugging percentage, home runs and wOBA over that stretch.
If he were a disaster in his own right, Eickhoff wouldn't get the nod. Yet he has registered a satisfactory 3.90 ERA, 24 strikeouts and nine walks over 30 innings. After getting roughed up by the red-hot Boston Red Sox, he allowed four baserunners and one run against the Chicago Cubs, weaving eight strikeouts through seven frames.
Throw in two starts against the raging New York Mets and his only favorable matchup came in his MLB debut, when he fired six scoreless innings against Miami. As a 25-year-old fringe prospect, he isn't getting coddled like most rookies, and his 45.6 fly-ball percentage poses less of a problem against baseball's least powerful lineup.
C/1B Wilin Rosario ($3,100), Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego
Wilin Rosario is 6-for-40 with no home runs since the All-Star break. Receiving five starts over the Colorado Rockies' last eight games, he has reached base three times.
Silver lining: He's playing more. An injured Nick Hundley has cleared real estate behind the plate, and the slumping slugger has also logged some games at first base. Before cowering from someone with a .276 on-base percentage and five homers in 78 games, remember that he lives for days like these.
The 26-year-old has milked Coors Field for all it's worth, and he generally crushes lefties despite faltering against pitchers of all varieties this year:
As noted by MLB.com, Robbie Erlin is the first southpaw to start for the San Diego Padres this season. He'll make his 2015 debut back from elbow injury at the worst possible time, so capitalize on Rosario's slump and play the low-risk, high-reward catcher, assuming he plays.
1B Mike Napoli ($3,500), Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners
Mike Napoli has caught fire back with the Texas Rangers, hitting .286/.385/.518 over 25 games. Reuniting with Globe Life Park in Arlington, the first baseman has homered twice over the past week.
The big bopper has authored vast splits, tallying a .614 OPS against righties and .936 OPS against lefties. While an overexaggeration of his career norms, he has crushed southpaws over his career:
Before falling for Vidal Nuno's 2.94 ERA, exclaimed by a one-hit masterpiece over Texas, he has also registered a 4.41 FIP. Bullpen work has also greatly embellished his stats; he holds a less flattering 4.13 ERA and .545 opposing slugging percentage through six starts.
First base is usually a spot to pay for premium power, but less so on a night where most contestants will use $15,100 of their $50,000 budget on Kershaw. Besides, why pass up a great deal?
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs. Pricing info via DraftKings.com.
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