Here’s a look at some players who got out of the gate early last year. It may be wise to target these players late in the draft and move them if they start hot again.
José López - Lopez’s three best career months for average are April, June, and May.
His average is 29 points higher before the All-Star break for his career, and despite playing in 30 less games he has 20 more Runs, 20 more Hits, 8 more Doubles, 7 more triples, 1 less HR, and 39 more RBI.
Additionally, his OBP is 26 points higher, slugging percentage 51 points higher, and OPS is 75 points higher before the break.
Derrek Lee - Lee tore it up last April hitting .371 with 24 R, 8 HRs & 23 RBI in 26 games. In
the other 129 games he hit .274 with 69 R, 12 HR, and 67 RBI. If he starts out that hot, with his name recognition, you might be able to turn him into a nice upgrade.
Justin Upton - Upton tore it up to a tune of .340, 14 R, 33 H, 6 Doubles, 5 HRs, and 15 RBI in 26 April games. In the remaining 82 games he hit a miserable .216 with 38 R, 45 H, 13 Doubles, 10 HRs, and 27 RBI. He hit just .221 in August and December in his 2007 debut.
Casey Kotchman - Kotchman came out sizzling hitting .321 with 6 HR, and 30 RBI in 53 games through May. In the next 90 games he hit just .243 with 8 HR and 44 RBI.
Jeff Keppinger - Jeff is a career .287 hitter, but has hit .329 in April and May, including hitting .333 last year during those months. He had 21 of his 43 RBI (49 percent) in 38 of his 121 games (31 percent).
He should be available late in drafts. You can use him to provide depth, or as trade bait if he gets off to another great start.
Now let’s take a look at some Pitchers who get off to fast starts. These are guys who you could look to Sell High if they continue their trend of early season success.
Brandon Webb - Brandon Webb started the year 6-0 with a 1.98 ERA. For his career he’s 18-2 with a 2.44 ERA in March and April. The rest of the year he’s 69-60 with a 3.38 ERA.
That split is staggering. What I recommend if you have him is to enjoy the early jump he gives your team in April and then look to move him.
Brad Penny - Penny went 4-2 with a 2.89 ERA last March/April. He was 3-7 with a 8.48 ERA the rest of the way. For his career, Penny is 21-7 with a 3.28 ERA in March/April. He’s 73-68 with a 4.23 ERA in the other months. If he starts off hot, he may be a good candidate to move.
Braden Looper - Braden Looper went 4-1 last year with a 3.86 ERA. His ERA didn’t fluctuate much the rest of the way as he finished at 4.16. However, his record saw a big drop-off as he went 8-13 the rest of the way.
Historically April is his best month as he’s 13-8 with a 2.79 ERA in 174 Innings. He is 45-50 with a 4.18 ERA in the other months.
Micah Owings - Owings was red hot last year going 4-0 with a 3.48 ERA in five April starts. Things got rocky going forward. He was 2-9 with a 6.96 ERA the rest of the way. He’s been pitching well this Spring, and if he can win a spot in the rotation over Homer Bailey, he might be a decent early season play.
Carlos Silva - Carlos Silva was 3-0 with a 2.79 ERA. Hardly numbers you’d expect from a guy who finished the season 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA.
His April start is not a fluke though. He is 14-5 in his career in April. He is 45-56 in the rest of the months. If he somehow lands a spot in the rotation, he may be worth a few spot starts on your fantasy team.
Then dump him like a hot potato. If you’re able to trade him to somebody, even better.
Mark Hendrickson - Mark was 4-0 with a 2.56 ERA last April. He finished 3-8 with a 6.12 ERA. Historically April has been his best ERA month. In 21 career April starts (25 games) he has an ERA of 3.97.
Aside from September, where he’s 10-4 with a 4.12 ERA, Hendrickson’s ERA doesn’t dip below 5.30 in any other month. I put him in the same boat as Silva.
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