Five Things You Won't See in the American League Central Division in 2009

There's arguably no race in the Major League that is more difficult to predict than the American League Central Division.

Last year was a prime example.

Most preseason baseball forecasters picked either the Detroit Tigers or the Cleveland Indians to capture the division. Chicago was picked third, with Minnesota in fourth followed by Kansas City at the bottom.

Well, we all know what happened.

The White Sox and Twins duked it out for the division crown, the Indians finished third and surprisingly, the Tigers succeeded the Royals as division bottom-dwellers.

With the disclaimer in the opening paragraph in place, here's a take on some developments in the Central Division that just won't happen in 2009. And by the way, you can take these to the bank.

1. Cliff Lee will win another Cy Young Award.

History is against it. Eight pitchers since 1960, like Lee, have amassed 20 wins in a single season (10 times overall) coupled with a winning percentage of .800 or higher. Only two (Denny McLain in 1969 and Roger Clemens in 1987) managed to win 20 games the following season.

The combined winning percentage of the group following their banner seasons is .624 (156 wins and 89 losses). This suggests that Lee, barring injury, poor run support, or a bullpen breakdown, should put together an above-average year. It just won't be Cy Young caliber.

2. Jim Thome will retain his home run mojo.

Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins isn't the only slugger in the American League Central Division with a bad back. The White Sox designated hitter is dealing with a back ailment that has limited his effectiveness in spring training.

The difference is that Mauer is young. He still has time on his side. Thome, at 38, is clearly on the downside of a majestic career.

Thome, who has belted 541 career home runs, hit .245 with 34 home runs and 90 runs batted in last season. These totals are more than respectable, but they represent three-year lows in each category.

There's no reason to assume that Thome will be able to substantially revive his career in 2009.

3. Delmon Young will have a breakout year.

He just might, but it may be for another club.

Minnesota Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire clearly prefers an outfield mix of Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span and Carlos Gomez. They hustle, pay attention to the fundamentals, and present no behavioral problems in the clubhouse.

In short, they're Gardenhire's type of players.

Young, on the other hand, came to the Twins with questions about his attitude and maturity.

These issues are apparently unresolved in Gardenhire's mind, clearly evidenced by the fact that the Twins' manager hasn't give him a nod of confidence despite Young's torrid spring performance.

4. The Kansas City Royals are ready for a pennant drive.

"The Royals have increased their victory totals in three straight years."

"The Royals were a Major League-leading 18-8 in September."

"They have a dynamic mixture of veterans and youngsters."

Who are the apologists for this sorry franchise trying to kid?

Alex Gordon and Billy Butler still have yet to prove they are the real deal.

Former Florida Marlin Mike Jacobs still has yet to show that his home runs offset his woeful on-base percentage.

The Royals' No. 4 and 5 starters, Brian Bannister and Luke Hochevar, still haven't shown that they're Major League pitchers.

Given the fact that the Royals finished well down the list in runs scored, home runs, stolen bases and on-base percentage in 2008, it's clear that the Royals' improvement was more likely due to luck than newfound skill.

5. Justin Verlander will have another mediocre season.

The Tigers' hopes for a Central Division rest on the ability of Justin Verlander to bounce back from a disappointing season.

After two seasons of model consistency (17-9, 3.63 ERA in 2006 and 18-6, 3.66 in 2007), Verlander slumped to an 11-17 mark and an alarmingly high ERA of 4.84 last season.

This is a guy who was once mentioned in the same breath as Johan Santana.

Verlander need look no further than a teammate on the Tigers' bench to be reminded of how quickly baseball fortunes can change.

Dontrelle Willis went 22-10, with a gaudy 2.63 ERA, for the Florida Marlins in 2005. Since then, he's won 22 games and lost 29. He's currently struggling for a spot in the Tigers' starting rotation.

Verlander is simply too young and too talented to struggle again in 2009.