For fans of a select few MLB squads, playoff baseball represents the most exciting time of the year. Supporters of eliminated teams, however, must helplessly watch others live and die on every heart-pounding pitch as their minds wander to the offseason.
Nobody can complete any trades during the postseason, but everyone out of the action is already assembling an offseason plan. While 2015's wounds still sting, general managers will reflect on their misfires and identify holes in need of remedies.
On the heels of losing campaigns, both Ohio franchises are already looking to parlay power pitchers into help across the board. The playoffs are far from over, but let's take a brief reprieve from the games with a look at two early rumors.
Indians Saying "So Long" to Danny Salazar?
Many analysts predicted the Cleveland Indians to represent the American League Central in October. Instead, they needed a late surge and a postponed game never made up to squeak over .500 at 81-80.
Cleveland's pitching didn't lead it into the postseason as anticipated, but the unit collectively led the American League with a 23.8 strikeout percentage, while its starting staff sported an AL-best 3.73 fielding independent pitching (FIP).
Although anyone looking solely at ERA won't think so, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar give the Indians one of baseball's finest rotation trios. Each of them struck out over a batter per inning, and while Salazar led the group in ERA, the other two amassed FIPs below 3.00.
According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the Indians are looking to break up this trio to ascertain offense, as Salazar is the likely odd man out.
"There’s no question the Indians are going to deal a starting pitcher for a hitter this offseason," Cafardo wrote. "As the year went on the Indians seemed more content to deal Salazar than Carlos Carrasco, who they made available at the trading deadline. Word is they’ll continue that way this offseason."
This comes days after Salazar expressed his excitement for another year in Cleveland:
Either hurler should fetch a considerable haul on the open market. Salazar, 25, has another season under team control before hitting the first of three arbitration years. The 28-year-old Carrasco is signed to a team-friendly deal. According to Cot's Contracts, he'll earn $19 million over the next three seasons with club options for $9 million in 2019 and $9.5 million in 2020.
Teams don't typically try to trade young, affordable stars, especially not starting pitchers with Cy Young upside. While the offense has room for improvement, it's certainly not hopeless. With help from rookie sensation Francisco Lindor, Cleveland finished No. 12 with a .315 weighted on-base average (wOBA).
Most teams would kill for its young, cheap nucleus of Kluber, Carrasco, Salazar, Lindor, Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis. Unless someone offers a young, affordable slugger, the Indians should instead build around those guys with a mid-level free-agent bat or two.
Reds Ready to Deal Aroldis Chapman
While the Cincinnati Reds didn't harbor postseason aspirations, they weren't supposed to be this bad. At 64-98, they finished one game shy of the Philadelphia Phillies for the No. 1 overall amateur draft pick.
They cleared house before the trade deadline, moving starters Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. They were willing to gut the rotation and use five rookies over the last two months, but they didn't jettison flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman.
According to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, that will likely change this winter. "Chapman will probably bring a package of prospects," Fay wrote. "The Reds have to do that. I think they will. In fact, an insider told me they will 'probably' trade Chapman."
Chapman, who concluded 2015 with a 1.63 ERA and 15.74 strikeouts per nine innings, is a major weapon out of the bullpen. An Associated Press report credited him with throwing the season's 62 fastest pitches, no surprise from someone who scorched an average fastball velocity of 99.5 mph.
Yet the Reds need starting pitching. Some younger hitters wouldn't hurt, either. They're a rebuilding franchise in need of young talent, so a dominant reliever is simply a luxury they can't afford.
The Atlanta Braves arrived at this realization earlier this year, shipping Craig Kimbrel to the San Diego Padres right before Opening Day. Along with receiving a solid starting center fielder in Cameron Maybin, they netted top pitching prospect Matt Wisler from the exchange.
Fay also noted that the ship has sailed on converting the 27-year-old southpaw into a starter.
If the Reds had stuck to the plan to make Chapman a starter, they may be looking at a different set of circumstances right now. If Chapman had developed into an ace – a big if given his temperament and bouts with command problems – the Reds might not be rebuilding right now.
But that ship sailed a long time ago. Chapman is a hard guy to read, given the language barrier. But when my old boss, Angel Rodriguez, interviewed Chapman in Spanish at Redsfest in 2013, Chapman made it clear – very clear – that he didn't want to deal with the talk about starting anymore.
Even as a reliever, Chapman will gross some substantial assets, preferably of the prospect variety. While the Reds will lose their most popular attraction, they'll gain pieces necessary to reconstruct the fleeting organization.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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