Early in MLB's offseason, the rumor mill will run wild with possibilities. Some will foreshadow future maneuvers, but others will remain in "What if?" purgatory.
A general manager isn't doing his due diligence by hanging up on an inquiry. Even an untouchable superstar has his price if the other side is willing to overpay. Many speculated studs on the hot stove will stay put, but it's usually worth a conversation.
This is also the time to play armchair GM and assemble possible trades. One such move, given life last week, was already discarded. Yet that doesn't mean both players will stay put.
Let's examine the league's latest chatter as offseason activity intensifies.
Heavy Interest in Dee Gordon
When the Los Angeles Dodgers dealt Dee Gordon to the Miami Marlins last winter, it looked like they sold high on a career year. Not quite. The second baseman hit .333 with 58 steals and 88 runs scored for Miami, giving the downtrodden franchise a rare win.
After a disappointing 71-91 season for Miami, other organizations are calling in hopes of the frugal franchise opening the gates on another fire sale. According to the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, eager suitors are knocking on the door:
The Marlins have a few players that other teams are interested in, including center fielder Marcell Ozuna, who could be dealt for starting pitching. But Gordon has received a ton of interest, being a second baseman who can hit as well as run. The Marlins have listened, but it would have to be a huge deal in which front-line, controllable pitching would come in return. Seems unlikely.
While Gordon will draw a raise in arbitration, he remains under team control. Back in August, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported the team's intentions of negotiating an extension this offseason. That doesn't sound like a team worried about a letdown, even if there's reason for concern.
Gordon won the National League batting title with help from a .383 batting average on balls in play, MLB's third-highest clip among qualified hitters. Some regression to the mean will bring the number down to a more reasonable rate, which will further expose his 3.8 walk percentage.
Then again, the same was said heading into 2015. Although the old saying claims nobody can steal first base, he snatches up infield hits few other speedsters can beat out. If he falls to his .293 career average, he's still an above-average option.
Everybody has his price, so Miami should listen to offers in case anyone overpays for his .333 average. Given his lack of plate discipline and power, the club probably won't receive a young, high-caliber ace in return.
Yankees Want Starting Pitching for Brett Gardner
Rumors spread faster in the city that never sleeps, so Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News opened up a giant can of worms by discussing the New York Yankees flipping outfielder Brett Gardner to the Chicago Cubs for middle infielder Starlin Castro:
The initial report spurred an avalanche of speculation and opinions, but this rumor didn't live long. Heyman shot down the pairing:
Feinsand updated his story to sing a different tune, joining Heyman in stating the Yankees' interest in acquiring a starting pitcher rather than a second baseman.
"A source said if the Yankees are to trade Gardner, it would likely be for a starting pitcher," Feinsand wrote. "The Indians have reportedly shown interest in Gardner as well, setting up a possible deal to send a pitcher—Carlos Carrasco, perhaps—to the Bronx."
An overlooked mainstay in New York's lineup, Gardner hit .259/.343/.399 with 16 homers, 20 steals and a 2.6 fWAR. While the 32-year-old is no longer a major menace on the bases or a premier defender, his stellar batting eye and growing power preserve his status as an outfield fixture.
Any suitors, however, should fear the lefty's newly gained muscle waning outside of Yankee Stadium, whose short right-field fence is perfectly tailored for his line-drive swing. Expecting Carrasco, a 28-year-old hurler under team control, is far too ambitious after his 216-strikeout season.
While Castro, 25, is far younger than Gardner, he has failed to reach his potential with fluctuating results. Last season, he recorded a .296 on-base percentage, causing the Cubs to bench him during the season. A right-handed hitter with a 54.1 ground-ball percentage can't properly utilize Yankee Stadium, so the Yankees are wise to leave this exchange as nothing more than talk-radio fodder.
Astros Pursuing Top Closers
The Houston Astros cleaned up their organization sooner than expected, snapping a nine-season playoff drought and pushing the Kansas City Royals to the limit in the American League Division Series.
In six playoff games, Houston's bullpen surrendered 14 runs through 17.1 innings. It also must replace or re-sign Tony Sipp, who registered a 1.99 ERA last season. As a result, the Astros are eyeing top late-inning arms in hopes of making a major splash, per ESPN's Jayson Stark.
According to Cafardo, Andrew Miller tops their wish list, and Pittsburgh Pirates closer Mark Melancon is also on their radar. In his first season of a four-year deal with the Yankees, Miller notched a 2.04 ERA and 100 strikeouts through 61.2 innings.
New York has another shutdown reliever in Dellin Betances, but he was on the roster when they signed Miller last winter. Per Feinsand, the Yankees would move the 30-year-old lefty, but they're not desperate to do so:
After years of rebuilding, Houston showed a willingness to leverage its deep farm system on the trade market last summer. To sustain an unexpected run, it traded prospects to land Carlos Gomez, Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers before the trade deadline. Now it wants a bullpen ace, who would probably supplant veteran Luke Gregerson as the ninth-inning man.
All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs.com.
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