While contemplating a list of players whose spring training statistics are meaningless, I must admit, I considered concluding "all of them" and just calling it a day. But that isn't completely fair; some hot spring starts are important.
Take Ian Kinsler. He's hitting .500 with four home runs through his first six spring games. Does that mean Barry Bonds' single-season home run record is about to fall? Of course not.
What it does mean is that Kinsler appears to be healthy enough to drive the ball. At this time last year, Kinsler had a high ankle sprain that sapped his power and ended up bothering him throughout the season.
I am already on the record as both a Kinsler fan and an optimist when it comes to injuries. Kinsler proved in 2009 that he has the ability to hit 30 HRs if healthy for a full season. His hot start this spring is important because it suggests that Kinsler, at least for now, is healthy enough to have a nice year.
You could also argue that hot spring starts could boost the confidence of players who have been good in the past but are coming of inexplicably poor seasons. Nate McLouth and Yunel Escobar are a couple examples that come to mind.
Other players' spring performances are important because they are fighting for playing time.
For instance, Kila Ka'aihue is hitting .375 with two HRs so far, making it an easy decision for the Royals to keep top prospect Eric Hosmer—who's also swinging a hot bat—in the minors to slow down his arbitration clock; Braves starter Mike Minor has a 1.80 ERA through his first two spring appearances as he fights for the team's final rotation spot and Atlanta reliever Jonny Venters has given up just one hit through four scoreless frames this spring, helping his case for first dibs at the Braves' closer job over Craig Kimbrel, who has an ERA north of 15.00 so far.
But while spring stats may sway managers' roster decisions, outside of showing that a player is healthy and confident, they are not a great predictor of future performance. This is especially true for veterans with a long track record and established level of ability.
Which brings us to 10 players whose hot spring starts are no more consequential than where their teams place in the spring training standings.
- Login to post comments