The free-agent market is yet to develop, but it’s only a matter of time until the dominoes will start to fall. When they do, expect the trade market to take shape as well.
Front-of-the-rotation pitchers Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields headline this year’s crop of free-agent starters, while Pablo Sandoval and Cuban prospect Yasmany Tomas stand out among hitters in a class that’s thin on impact players.
With just a few franchise-caliber players on the market—players that a team would plan to build around—it wouldn’t be surprising if there were a flurry of trades made this offseason. After all, most teams can’t afford or will miss out on one of the few elite free agents in this year’s class.
With that said, here are three potential trade targets who could be game-changers for any franchise.
Jason Heyward, RF, Atlanta Braves
Heyward had a solid offensive season, batting .271/.351/.384 over 649 plate appearances, but his 11 home runs marked his lowest total since breaking into the major leagues in 2010. The 25-year-old also scored 74 runs and swiped 20 bags in 149 games, and he led all Braves players with a 5.1 fWAR.
Heyward’s WAR was largely tied to his Gold Glove defense in right field, as he led all qualified major leaguers at the position in both defensive runs saved (32) and ultimate zone rating (24.1), per FanGraphs.
The Braves approached Heyward back in 2013 about an extension worth less than the five-year, $75 million contract they recently gave to B.J. Upton, writes Mark Bowman of MLB.com. However, both parties haven’t discussed a potential extension since then.
After talking with Braves president of operations John Hart, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution doesn’t believe the Braves will try to extend Jason Heyward this offseason. Heyward is set to make $8.3 million after hitting a few incentives in his contract his past season, O’Brien tweets.
The trade market for Heyward will come down to whether teams believe he’s open to signing an extension before hitting the open market next winter. And if they’re willing to offer him an extension in the first place, then it’s fair to assume they also believe he can re-discover the power that produced 27 home runs in 2012, rather than the 25 he’s totaled over the last two seasons.
Even if that doesn’t happen, we’re still talking about a 25-year-old with a four-win floor moving forward. The fact that Heyward is a year away from free agency might hurt his overall trade value, but I’d still expect a team to give up two quality young players for the right fielder, with one possibly being a cost-controlled big leaguer.
Cole Hamels, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Hamels, who turns 31 in December, will make $96 million over the final four years of his contract, not including a $20 million vesting option for 2019. He also has a 20-team no-trade clause and nine-team block list in his contract, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, as of now, the only team known not to be included on either list is the Chicago Cubs, according to a tweet from ESPN’s Buster Olney.
Hamels has made at least 30 starts in seven consecutive seasons while eclipsing 200 innings all but once during that time frame. During his nine-year career with the Phillies, the left-hander has pitched to a 3.27 ERA (3.48 FIP), 8.53 K/9 and 2.26 BB/9 in 1,801.1 innings, good for a 34.4 fWAR.
Unsurprisingly, Philadelphia is asking for a flattering return on Hamels in the form of “at least three top prospects,” two of whom are capable of contributing in the major leagues, per Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.
That said, general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. is prepared to wait and see how the market for free agents Max Scherzer and Jon Lester unfolds before deciding whether to deal his ace left-hander, per Salisbury.
Cole is still a really valuable player for us. He’s going to help us win baseball games. As I’ve said before, we have him under contract and he kind of traverses the timeline and the goals that we, at least in our mind, have set. He can still be pitching for us when it’s time for us to be contending.
“He’s really kind of in the sweet spot and there is no reason to do anything with him because he’s going to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, we believe, over the next five years of his contract. There’s no pressure to move him, no necessity to do it and, frankly, I’m not dying to move him. If there is an opportunity that is going to make our organization better off then you have to consider it because we’re considering everything.
Hamels is the only trade candidate—unless the Marlins fail to extend slugger Giancarlo Stanton—worth the king’s ransom the Phillies are demanding. However, teams aren’t going to sell the farm, literally and figuratively, to get him this early in the offseason, which is why Amaro will patiently wait for Scherzer and/or Lester to come off the board.
Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Washington Nationals
A strong case can be made that Jordan Zimmermann, not Stephen Strasburg, is the Washington Nationals’ ace.
Zimmermann, 28, went 14-5 with a 2.66 ERA (2.68 FIP), 8.20 K/9 and 1.31 BB/9 over 199.2 innings this past season, capping off his career-best season with a no-hitter on the final day of the regular season. The right-hander’s 5.2 fWAR ranked second among National League starting pitchers, trailing only Clayton Kershaw (7.2).
Zimmermann has a 3.00 ERA in 122 starts over the past four seasons, and he’s now made exactly 32 starts in three consecutive years. Meanwhile, the right-hander dominated the San Francisco Giants in Game 2 of the NLDS this year, allowing just one run on three hits in 8.2 innings.
Adam Kilgore of The Washington Post thinks the Nationals should prioritize working out a long-term contract extension with Zimmermann during the offseason. However, the two sides aren’t engaged in discussions at the moment, tweets James Wagner of the Washington Post.
Meanwhile, Kilgore also notes that any deal the Nats offer Zimmermann will likely be the richest in franchise history, topping the seven-year, $126 million contract given to Jayson Werth prior to the 2011 season.
Zimmermann, a two-time All-Star, will make $16.5 million in 2015 and hit the open market after the season, so any team interesting in trading for the right-hander will need to believe it can lock him up with a long-term contract.
According to CSN Washington’s Mark Zuckerman, the Nationals would only trade Zimmermann if they received “a boatload in return,” which he describes as “at least three really good, young, big-league-ready players.”
A trade involving Zimmermann seems unlikely, especially with one year remaining on his contract and Washington poised to contend in 2015. However, that could change if the Phillies decide to move Cole Hamels, which in turn would define the going exchange rate for an ace-caliber pitcher.
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