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The Washington Nationals May Improve Before the Fans' Mood Does

Judging from the content of blogs covering the team, the fans of the Washington Nationals are grumpy. That is easy to understand when considered in the context of last year's 102-loss season. However, since the grumpiness is evident even during discussions of obvious improvements to the team, one might accuse us of holding a grudge.

For instance, consider the signing of Adam Dunn. The man has hit 40 HRs five years in a row, and Lastings Milledge led the Nats last year with 14. He has an on-base percentage to rival any in the league, and he usually scores more than 100 runs.

His signing dulled the argument that the owners are cheap, and his signing didn't even cost the club a draft pick. What's not to like?

Apparently, given the sniping one can read where Nats fans congregate to blog, many feel that his defense at first when he spells Nick Johnson puts his signing totally into question.

Next we have the "problem" of outfield depth, a bit of a tangle crafted while we enjoyed the general managing stylings of Jim Bowden. Last year, the Nats featured Wily Mo Pena, Rob Mackowiak and Willy Harris as part of the mix, and only Harris earned a return.

Hell, we had Paul LoDuca and Felipe Lopez in the outfield at least one game each, due to injuries. This year, the outfield has Adam Dunn, Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns, and Elijah Dukes fighting for three spots.

You would think that the fans would see the advantage of an overall higher caliber of outfielders, but you would never know it. Although Milledge had a decent year last year, and is still only 24, a significant minority of Nationals fans grind axes to a nub for this kid like so many no. 2 pencils.

In spite of the fact that Austin Kearns showed a significant hitting recovery during spring training, some are intent on doubting his signature defense, and bemoaning the fact that Kearns beat out Elijah Dukes for the starting right field job last year. Have they forgotten all of their "You dead, dawg" jokes from last season?

One thing that brought joy to almost all Nationals fans, at least because it brought the hope of real change, was the ouster (OK, OK, "resignation") of GM Jim Bowden.  The Nationals front office did not give the job outright to assistant GM Mike Rizzo, but he seems to be doing the job himself for now. 

The Constituency was pleased only long enough to find a reason to complain. Whereas Jim Bowden was too flamboyant, some now complain that Rizzo is too "corporate," because he has a habit of referring to players as "inventory," particularly when he signs extra players to minor league deals for more depth.

I think we Nationals fans may not realize the true insight Rizzo shows until the team actually has some superstars, and not a surplus of replacement-level players.

The commentary above is pretty true to the mood of many fans as we enter the 2009 season, but I promise certainly not all of us. There is much to be excited about in seeing John Lannan, Shairon Martis, and Jordan Zimmermann holding down rotation spots, and Daniel Cabrera and Scott Olsen have been near-.500 pitchers in the past.

The OBP's and power of Dunn, Nick Johnson and Willingham give us hope, if health and/or Manny Acta give them enough at-bats. The signing of Joe Beimel keeps the bullpen from being hideous, and the team couldn't possibly have as many injury problems as last year. 

Seriously, you have just read a story on the prospects of the Nats which did not focus heavily on Ryan Zimmerman, who is due for a breakout year.

Most writers outside of the Natosphere do not even mention the Nationals' name when they predict that four teams have a chance in the NL East. However, the change in the team is reflected better when they try to predict final records.

Whether a prognosticator is using the PECOTA system, throwing chicken bones on the table, or blurting out the first numbers that come to mind, I have not seen a prediction that doesn't give the Nats between 72 and 77 wins.

That, my scoffing public, would represent an improvement of 13 to 18 victories, and we Nats fans would take it.

After all, we should have No. 1 draft pick Stephen Strasburg heading the rotation next year.

Positively Half St.

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