2014: The Year of the Nat

"So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak."—Sun Tzu

So in baseball, the way to a World Series is to strike when your division is weak. Although gruff old managers and coaches may risk a platitude or two about playing only against oneself, general managers must think otherwise (e.g. Jack Zduriencik). A baseball team does not simply play against itself. A baseball franchise does not only compete with itself.

Teams exist in divisions. Those divisions can be won. Winning the division gives a team the opportunity to win it all.

Now, if you’re a wealthy, big-market franchise (e.g. Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Tigers, Phillies, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers) you should win nearly every year, and you should always be contending for the World Series. (Somebody inform the Mets and Cubs.)

On the other hand, if you're a poor, smaller-market franchise (e.g. Marlins, Padres, Pirates, Nationals, Athletics, Twins, Reds, D-Backs, Rockies, Royals, Rangers, Orioles, Brewers) you cannot win every year, and you should always be building toward a shot at that elusive Series. Not some vague, undefined shot in a few years or so. You must build toward a specific striking moment.

You must carefully monitor your divisional competition, as strong as they may be, and wait, and wait, and wait. When will they be weak again? They all will be, and when they are, that is your window to go for it.

Seattle is doing it right now. While Texas remains imbalanced, Oakland settles for perennial "Moneyball" mediocrity, and Anaheim is failing to take the necessary steps to maintain its divisional dominance, Seattle is making its push. Signing Figgins, acquiring Lee, trying to lock up their aces, dumping Silva's bad contract, and getting Bradley's bat comprise the first steps in a concerted, perfectly-timed effort to seize the division and win it all.

The key to Seattle's potential success rests in the timing. They have been building a strong core for some time, but the expiring Lackey/Figgins contracts, combined with the Angels' top-heavy payroll, make 2010 the perfect year to dethrone the Halos.

It may or may not work. But the timing is right. The window is open, and you never know for how long.

Building on this premise, let's consider the Washington Nationals, bottom-feeders of the National League East.

Assessing that division, we'll see that the best possible opening for the Nationals occurs in 2014. We'll call it "The Year of the Nat."

 

THE COMPETITION

The 2009 National League East race finished with Philadelphia beating out the Marlins and Braves and trouncing the Mets and Nationals. The dead-last Nationals’ 59-103 record marked the Major League season’s worst. Yet they have an opportunity to win their division in five short years. Let’s evaluate the divisional competition’s prospective paths from 2010 to 2014.

 

The Phillies: While the Phillies recently upgraded their rotation slightly by shipping Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay, the next five years spell a series of contractual nightmares for the Philadelphia front office. Although Jason Werth represents their only prominent component to hit free agency at 2010’s finish, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez, Jimmy Rollins and J.C. Romero could all walk after 2011.

Whether it should want to keep them all, there is no way Philly could. After 2012, Brad Lidge and Shane Victorino are free. The 2013 season will force the Phillies’ hand on Polanco and Utley. Again, it’s not that they couldn’t retain all these extremely productive components, it’s that they won’t.

They will do their best to replace some while re-signing others, but by 2014 the Phillies will be either saddled with aging, overpaid former superstars or entering a relatively short rebuilding period.

 

The Mets: The Mets are already in the doghouse, and the next several years won’t necessarily help, unless a new general manager takes over and begins immediately implementing a totally new ideology (unlikely).

After 2011, current contracts with Carlos Beltran, Oliver Perez, and Jose Reyes all expire. K-Rod and David Wright walk after 2012 and 2013, respectively. The Metropolitans face a problem similar to that of the Phillies’ (though without the present potential for success).

 

The Marlins: Although they finished a surprising second in an unpredictable 2009 race, and have some of the pieces necessary to make a serious challenge over the next three years, the Marlins will most likely continue to follow their pattern of exploiting revenue-sharing for pure profit and failing to invest the capital requisite to becoming a contender.

While a dedicated and savvy Marlins G.M. might lock up the likes of Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson and build a championship caliber squad around those starters (like building around King Felix and Lee in Seattle), the current ownership would shock the baseball-loving world if it did.

With Johnson and Dan Uggla traded or gone after 2012 and Nolasco to follow in 2013, the Marlins are likely shaping into the National League version of the Athletics. By 2014 they will again be a relatively hopeless embarrassment.

 

The Braves: It’s already apparent where this organization is headed. After letting Mark Teixeira go for a song two years ago, the Braves unexpectedly invested 60 million in an unwise Derek Lowe contract, only to be desperately trying to dump it a year later.

Javier Vazquez has one year left. Chipper Jones and Brian McCann can get paid after 2013, but expect them to get traded before that. The economy sucks, but an Atlanta front office should be making better decisions.

Thus, if the Nationals’ front office has the vision and is willing to make some timely investments, they have an opportunity to leapfrog to the top of the division by 2014. The path is clearing for “The Year of the Nat.”

 

A POSSIBLE PATH

The danger most franchises face is trying to satisfy the fans immediately, rather than crafting and sticking to an achievable long-term plan. Most ownership groups wrongly equate winning now with increased attendance.

Although winning now obviously draws more fans (though not in Tampa Bay), having a clear plan and publicly building a championship team over several years would actually improve revenue as much or more. Over time the benefits in dollars and fan loyalty are far more rewarding.

Although the Nationals may currently be considering signing players like Jason Marquis and Jon Garland to short-term deals, they should do so only because it allows younger players time to develop while purchasing potential trade chips via free agency.

A good signing occurs only with unranked or Type-B free agents. If a club like the Nationals is to sign a Type A, it had better be to a contract long enough to cover the target year (2014).

This is why many rightfully question the Orioles' signing of Mike Gonzalez. The O’s won’t gain enough wins over the next two years to justify the loss of draft picks, and if Gonzalez doesn’t leave a Type A in two years, the O’s have lost everything. The best they can hope for is that he maintains his status and they get an organizational draw. Bad move.

So, starting now, here is one possible path for the Nationals.

PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE ARE SUGGESTED STARTING POINTS AND THAT THE SPECIFIC PIECES ARE OBVIOUSLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE.  THAT SAID, ALL OF THE TRADE CANDIDATES, OR SIMILAR ONES, ARE OBTAINABLE WITH THE RIGHT PACKAGE.

 

2009-10

Sign Matt Capps. He’s a non-tender and a trade-free closer with huge upside.

Acquire Miguel Cabrera. The Tigers are eager to dump the salary, and the Nats have the chips to make it happen. Three or four prospects should get it done.

Deal Adam Dunn and Wil Nieves to the Giants for catcher Buster Posey and pitcher Tim Alderson . They need several big bats, and this helps offset payroll added in the Miggy deal.

Deal Josh Willingham and either Willie Harris or Cristian Guzman to Seattle for shortstop Carlos Triunfel .

Deal Scott Olsen and either Willie Harris or Cristian Guzman to the New York Mets for outfielder Fernando Martinez .

 

2010-11

Sign Carl Crawford.

 

2011-12

Sign Jason Kubel.

 

2012-13

Sign Justin Verlander.

Extend Ryan Zimmerman.

Extend RP Sean Burnett.

 

2014 POSSIBLE ROSTER

C Buster Posey (Trade)—NYY's Jesus Montero is good alternative.

1B Miguel Cabrera (Trade)

2B Danny Espinoza (Internal)

3B Ryan Zimmerman (Internal)

SS Carlos Triunfel (Trade)—also consider either CWS' Gordon Beckham or TB's Tim Beckham, or 2012 Free Agents Jose Reyes or Alexei Ramirez.

LF Fernando Martinez (Trade)

CF Carl Crawford (Free Agent)

RF Elijah Dukes (Internal)

OF Jason Kubel (Free Agent)

SP1 Justin Verlander (Free Agent)

SP2 Stephen Strasburg (Internal)

SP3 John Lannan (Internal)

SP4 Jordan Zimmermann (Internal)

RP1 Tyler Clippard (Internal)

RP2 Sean Burnett (Internal)

RP3 Drew Storen (Internal)

RP4 Tim Alderson (Trade)

CP Matt Capps (Free Agent)

 

Projected Payrolls: 2010: $54.36, 2011: $67, 2012: $80.33, 2013: $106.6, and 2014: $152.3.

This roster is a template, a possibility. Obviously any number of these moves might be impossible. Any number of these prospects might not develop as hoped. Any number of players might decline unexpectedly or rapidly. What is important is the plan.

If there is a window, a team must not just watch for potential trades. A team must thoroughly evaluate and aggressively pursue the necessary pieces.

Financially, the goal must be to keep payroll relatively low as long as possible, stockpiling any surplus for the future push. In this Nationals’ scenario the payroll slowly escalates and then balloons in the target year. Shortly thereafter, the payroll would reduce dramatically, and a new plan would be formulated since such a high payroll level is unsustainable.

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