Every offseason, the MLB hype machine sputters to life. Fans, pundits and media outlets (including us here at Bleacher Report) throw their support behind potential juggernauts and dark horses, building some clubs up and tearing others down.
Then the games start and, usually, it all goes out the window.
Take a glance at the standings. Entering play Tuesday, the Chicago White Sox, one of the winter's most active teams and a popular pick to contend in the American League Central, sit at 12-17, 6.5 games out.
Staying in the same division, the Cleveland Indians, who landed on the cover of Sports Illustrated next to the headline "Why the Tribe Will Win Its First Series Since 1948," are 11-19, which should only fuel talk of an SI cover curse.
The Seattle Mariners, picked by ESPN and Bleacher Report's Scott Miller to win the AL West, are 14-17, 5.5 games behind the surprising Houston Astros.
In the National League East, the Washington Nationals, owners of baseball's most vaunted super-rotation, sit 2.5 games back of the New York Mets.
Or how about the young Chicago Cubs, a hype magnet if ever there was one, who are staring up at their old rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, in the NL Central.
Yes, this is the part where we remind ourselves that it's only May. A lot will happen between now and October. Hot starts will melt and slumps will turn to streaks.
Usually, the best teams end up with the most wins, to state the painfully obvious.
This is an interesting season, though, and there's a chance it might not follow the rules of "usually."
In February, I predicted 2015 could bring historic parity to both leagues. So far, that's what we've gotten.
Entering play Tuesday, only five teams had sunk more than five games below .500. And other than the Colorado Rockies, who had dropped nine straight, no club was in the midst of more than a six-game winning or losing streak.
"This is what we set out to do," then-MLB Commissioner Bud Selig said in June 2014, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale. "We have, unquestionably, more competitive balance than at any time in history."
ESPN.com's Jayson Stark elaborates:
All but six baseball teams have played in at least one of the past 30 World Series, and 17 teams have won one. No matter how you do the math, at least 12 teams have divvied up the champagne in 24 of the past 30 World Series, even though the Yankees have won five of them all by themselves. How'd that happen in a sport in which the "same teams win every year?"
It happened because the same team doesn't win every year. Often, the team or teams with the most buzz finish out of the money.
This is especially true when parity reigns. With fewer great teams and fewer awful teams, everyone slides to the middle. That's good for generating widespread interest, as more clubs in more markets stay in the hunt.
But it can lay waste to preseason expectations. If virtually everyone's in contention, how reliably can anyone hype some teams over others?
To understand the folly of preseason hype, we need look no further than the San Francisco Giants. Over the past five years, the Giants have won three championships, an impressive run in this or any era.
And yet, those three rings have been separated by disappointing seasons marred by injury and poor performances.
Each time San Francisco wore the "defending champ" mantle between 2010 and 2014, it faltered. Each time expectations were lowered, the Giants brought a Commissioner's Trophy to the Bay Area.
This year, fresh off their 2014 title run, the orange and black are 16-16.
There's no hard and fast lesson here, except that baseball will serve up the unexpected more often than not.
Mostly, we should remember that hype is like a cool breeze or the carbonation in a freshly cracked soda can: enjoyable while it lasts, but bound to dissipate.
The squads you assumed would run away with things still might. Then again, they might not. To recycle the cliche, that's why they play the games.
None of this is to say we will, or should, stop generating preseason buzz. It's part of what makes baseball fun.
But as parity reshapes the MLB landscape and injects more unpredictability than ever into the game, it pays to remember there's a yawning chasm between hype and results.
All statistics current as of May 11 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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