Every fan wants his or her team to sign the biggest MLB free agents who are on the market every offseason, but sometimes, the middling contracts are the ones that pay off the most.
Big names like David Price, Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes will likely take over headlines as soon as the World Series ends. Still, the smarter organizations will find ways to add productive members to their rosters without limiting payroll flexibility in the future.
Here is a look at some of those options who will be available this upcoming winter.
John Lackey, SP
Even at 36 years old, John Lackey can clearly get it done at a high level. The St. Louis Cardinals veteran finished the 2015 season with a 2.77 ERA in 218 innings, including a dominant 1.78 ERA in September.
He then showcased his ability on the national stage with 7.1 shutout innings against the Chicago Cubs in the National League Division Series. After making just $500,000 this season at the veteran minimum, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, it's time for Lackey to once again get paid.
The Cardinals would certainly like to keep him after his success since acquiring him from the Boston Red Sox. Bernie Miklasz of 101Sports.com notes just how well he has pitched, especially at home:
Some competition will come for the free-agent's services, though, and interestingly enough, it might be from a team he recently defeated, per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe:
It is not out of the realm of possibility that Lackey could wind up with the Cubs next season as a free agent, according to one major league source. It was Theo Epstein who signed him as a free agent in Boston. Lackey is also a close friend of Jon Lester, who will push Epstein in that direction. Lackey played for the major league minimum of $500,000 this season but also reached incentives that made his contract worth more than $2 million.
Although the Cardinals and Cubs are still battling in the playoffs, Lackey makes a lot of sense for Chicago as another veteran addition who can help the team both in the regular season and beyond. For all the young stars in the lineup, there aren't many top pitchers on the way, and this could be a reasonably priced addition to the rotation.
With his 2.90 postseason ERA and two World Series rings, he would be a nice addition to a young team likely to contend in 2016.
Predicted destination: Chicago Cubs
Daniel Murphy, 2B
It has never been easy for the New York Mets to quantify Daniel Murphy's value to the team. He isn't a good defender and often makes mental mistakes in the field and on the basepaths. On the other hand, he is a consistent hitter (batting average between .281 and .291 over last four seasons) and is known for big hits in important moments.
One of those big moments came in Game 1 of the NLDS against Clayton Kershaw, which energized his team when it was needed, via Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal:
Despite his value, Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a "strong sense the Mets also do not plan to give Murphy the $15.8 million qualifying offer." Sherman added an outlook of what he expects from Murphy's free agency:
The consensus seems to be Murphy will get a three-year, contract in the $30 million-to-$40 million range. That he is best suited to the AL where his sketchy defense can be mitigated somewhat by, say, playing third base 20-30 games, second 20-30 games, first 20-30 games and DHing 30-50 times. The A’s, Astros and Rays are examples of teams that have valued multi-positional versatility.
Based on what we know about Murphy, this makes a lot of sense. The 30-year-old player was forced to play second base out of necessity for the team, but this has been his worst position. According to Baseball-Reference.com, 507 games at second have cost his team 42 runs compared to average. He has been neutral in 86 games at third base and saved 20 runs in 190 games at first base.
If another team has a better fit for Murphy in the field, he would be a much more valuable addition. As Sherman notes, the versatility should also help in negotiations. Add this to the fact the Mets can easily replace him with Wilmer Flores next season, and a chance of returning to New York seems unlikely.
As for his next location, any of the American League teams mentioned could be solid possibilities. One alternative in the National League could be the San Diego Padres, who have a lot of uncertainty in the infield and could use a left-handed hitter to balance the lineup. He wouldn't be able to spend time as a designated hitter, but the opportunity for playing time around the field will make the deal worthwhile.
Predicted destination: San Diego Padres
Mike Leake, SP
It was an up-and-down year for Mike Leake, but he ended the season as strong as possible. The last start of the season featured a complete-game, two-hit shutout against the Los Angeles Dodgers, ending his year with a 3.70 ERA and 11-10 record.
Leake will now hope his performance was enough for his latest team, the San Francisco Giants, to offer a new deal after acquiring him from Cincinnati in a midseason trade. Bob Nightengale of USA Today noted this was a possibility, but another NL West team was also interested:
The Arizona Diamondbacks had a solid season, but a 4.37 starter ERA (23rd in MLB) ruined any chance of making the playoffs. They have stated the plan this offseason is to add more pitching.
"I think that's the No. 1 goal for Dave [Stewart] and Tony [La Russa] right now—to find a horse that we know when we throw him out there, win or lose, he's going to give us at least seven innings," manager Chip Hale said after the season, via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com.
Leake might not win any Cy Young awards, but he has pitched at least 192 innings over each of the last three seasons with an ERA under 4.00 each time. He pitched eight innings or more eight times in 30 starts this season.
This goes a long way toward helping a team over the course of a season.
San Francisco might want to keep him around, but Leake to the Diamondbacks makes a lot of sense.
Predicted destination: Arizona Diamondbacks
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