With MLB free agency beginning Monday night, the Seattle Mariners can officially start signing players in an attempt to upgrade their offense.
One of the best pitching staffs in baseball wasn't enough to get the Mariners into the playoffs, as Seattle ranked 11th in runs scored in the American League. General manager Jack Zduriencik has already indicated that payroll will rise in 2015, via Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune, meaning the Mariners will be active in free agency and the trade market.
This season's free-agency class is relatively weak overall, but it does have a number of intriguing players at the top. Seattle will look closely at Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz or Billy Butler to establish a presence in the middle of its lineup.
The Colorado Rockies unexpectedly extended a qualifying offer to Michael Cuddyer, likely taking one of Seattle's top targets out of the picture.
Still, the Mariners have a few options who could improve the club enough to make the postseason in 2015. Getting all three of these ideal free-agent pickups isn't going to happen, but the Mariners would be very happy if any of them landed in Seattle.
Victor Martinez, DH
Any of those big-name sluggers carry their own set of risks, but Martinez is the best overall option for the Mariners at this point.
Martinez was one of the best hitters in the majors last season, posting a 335/.409/.565 line with 32 home runs. He's 35 years old and will require an expensive three- or four-year contract, but Martinez is good enough to push the Mariners over the top in 2015.
The Mariners have to expect any player to suffer a drop in power production after moving to Safeco Field. Martinez can do more at the plate than just hit home runs, making him an ideal candidate over Cruz and others.
Despite never totaling more than 25 home runs in a year prior to last season, Martinez owns a career 133 wRC+. Martinez has also posted an on-base percentage of over .370 six times in his career, including a .409 clip in 2014.
Adding that production to Seattle's lineup in between Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager would solidify the middle of the order for the first time in years, at least for the near future. Martinez is a risk, but the window is open for the Mariners to take such a risk.
Yasmani Tomas, OF
Tomas is the wild card of this year's free-agency period. He's going to be expensive, and nobody is going to be able to accurately predict how well he will translate to the major leagues, but he has the potential to shape a franchise for years to come.
While not quite on the same level as Jose Abreu, Tomas does appear to be one of the more talented power hitters to come out of Cuba in recent memory. Ben Badler of Baseball America offered his scouting report on Tomas.
A righthanded-hitting corner outfielder, Tomas can hit towering home runs thanks to the strength from his thickly-built 6-foot-1, 230-pound frame. Tomas has 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale, and with Jose Abreu already gone, the only player still in Cuba with more raw power than him was Alfredo Despaigne. He has some experience in center field and is a decent runner for his size, but his speed is still below-average and he’s going to be a corner outfielder in pro ball.
On the surface, that sounds like the type of player Seattle has been trying to bring in for years. Tomas will also be just 24 years old next season and his contract will run through his prime, which may be more appealing than banking on an aging power hitter avoiding decline.
Even with the raw tools, Tomas is an unknown, so there's plenty of risk here too. Tomas is still absolutely worth the right price, particularly if Martinez and others sign elsewhere first.
Brandon McCarthy, SP
The Mariners could roll with the young trio of James Paxton, Taijuan Walker and Roenis Elias behind their outstanding top two in the rotation. With no depth behind that, one injury would mean a lot of Erasmo Ramirez starts again, unless Danny Hultzen is fully recovered.
A more ideal situation would be signing a veteran mid-level starter to take some of the pressure off the young guys (Walker in particular) and add depth. Chris Young would work just fine in that role, but McCarthy could be a higher-upside option who would come relatively cheaply.
McCarthy pitched better last season than his 4.05 ERA would indicate, posting a 3.55 FIP and 2.87 xFIP. He was particularly good after being traded to the New York Yankees midseason, striking out 82 batters in 90.1 innings while walking just 13.
John Harper of the New York Daily News reports that the Yankees had McCarthy change his pitch selection after coming to New York.
On Saturday, GM Brian Cashman said that a study by the club’s analytics department before the trade convinced the Yankees that McCarthy could get back to the success he had enjoyed in previous years if he reincorporated his cutter, a pitch the Diamondbacks instructed him to stop throwing this season.
In addition, McCann went to McCarthy after catching him in Cleveland last week and convinced him to throw his four-seam fastball up in the zone at times as a counter of sorts to his sinker.
That indicates McCarthy may have found the key to his success moving forward, but the Yankees won't let him go easily. If he doesn't end up back in New York for whatever reason, McCarthy would be a nice fit in Seattle.
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