When is a 9.88 a good thing?
When you're taking a test out of 10 points. When you're an Olympic ice skater. When it's your 100-meter dash time.
When is it a bad thing?
It's certainly a bad thing if we are talking about ERA.
The 9.88 ERA belongs to Cincinnati Reds "ace" Aaron Harang—the same guy who will be tying an all-time Reds record for Opening Day starts on Monday with five.
The season hasn't even started, and I'm already hitting the panic button on Harang.
Something is missing—and it's his location. He can't blow a fastball by hitters anymore, and he must rely on tricking hitters more so than in the past.
He used to be a strikeout pitcher—but not anymore.
Harang has been relegated to nibbling on the corners—and the results have been an abundance of full counts and wasted pitches. Thus, he hasn't been able to be the inning-eater the Reds have come to expect.
The Reds need a strong performance out of Harang if they want to be relevant in August. During the past two years, Harang has been plagued by injuries and long balls while posting a horrific 12-31 record.
The turning point was a 18-inning marathon against the San Diego Padres—which many skeptics point to as the beginning of his decline.
On two days rest, manager Dusty Baker threw Harang in for four-plus innings. His ERA jumped 1.5 runs during the rest of the season.
He also missed a whole month with injury—yet he still managed to accumulate 17 losses.
The year 2009 brought more of the same. A 6-14 record ended prematurely after an emergency appendectomy.
While there are plenty of reasons to worry, Harang isn't sweating a thing.
“I feel great," said Harang after his final start of the spring.
He feels great about allowing 24 hits in 13.5 innings?
"This is the best I’ve felt in spring training. The outcome is not what you want and expect. But it doesn’t count. This is about getting really for the long haul of the season.”
How are Reds fans supposed to believe this statement? How can any pitcher feel good after giving up five runs in 5.2 innings pitched? That comes after giving up seven runs on nine hits in 2.2 innings in his previous outing.
Wish I knew the answer.
But his recent history really doesn't make me feel any better.
After two fantastic seasons of 16 wins and 200-plus strikeouts in '06 and '07, he has been a shell of his former self.
He is making $12.5 million this year, so he isn't going anywhere. Harang could be used as trade bait at the deadline if the Reds fall on their collective faces—a common occurrence in the past decade.
He is saying all the old spring cliches that can be found in quotes of various players across Major League Baseball. It becomes hard to believe him in light of his recent history—dating all the way back to that ill-fated Padres game in '08.
Maybe he is fine, and the lack of run support led to his 6-14 record last year. The Reds averaged just 3.42 runs in his 26 starts last year. They scored two or fewer runs 12 times and were shut out twice. The Reds hit just .239 in his starts.
His 4.21 ERA was better than plenty of solid pitchers in '09: Jorge De La Rosa (16-9, 4.38), Johnny Cueto (11-11, 4.41), Joe Saunders (16-7, 4.60).
So completely writing off Harang is a mistake.
“Overall, I feel very comfortable with the new stuff with my mechanics,” Harang said. “I feel like the ball is coming out very well. It’s matter of coming in and stretching it out come Monday.”
Reds fans are crossing their fingers that Harang really is telling the truth. A solid season for the hefty righty will go along way for the '10 Redlegs.
He has shown he is capable of producing, so you can't rule him out.
Unfortunately, overlooking his recent numbers is not easy. Posting another mediocre season will close the small glimmer of hope the Reds have to make the postseason.
Either way, one thing is for sure—the Reds aren't going anywhere this season without a strong, injury-free campaign from Mr. Opening Day.
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