In the interest of full disclosure, I’m the same guy who said heading into last season that I thought the Red Sox had made enough savvy moves to challenge the Yankees for the pennant.
Not quite. My prediction that cost-effective reclamation projects such as John Smoltz and Brad Penny would pay serious dividends landed somewhere between woefully off base and numbingly stupid.
So take what you will from this: I really like the team the Sox are preparing to roll out in 2010.
With Monday’s signing of Adrian Beltre, the Red Sox have essentially completed an offseason makeover, eschewing the pursuit of pop in favor of pitching and defense. The team that takes the field to open the year in April will look little like the one that petered out in the playoffs—far less Silver Slugger and much more Gold Glove.
The Sox, by everyone’s account, entered the offseason in pursuit of a thumper to add to the middle of the lineup. Instead they nabbed John Lackey, perhaps the best pitcher on the free agent market, to build a rotation that includes Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Clay Buchholz. That doesn’t even factor Tim Wakefield, an All-Star a season ago, into the mix.
In Beckett, Lester, and Lackey, the Sox have three true gamers, guys who take a boxer’s mentality to the mound every fifth day. They also have a one-two-three punch that can match the Yankees troika of Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte. Anyone who argues that Burnett is better than either Lester or Lackey should have their DNA checked for signs of the Steinbrenner gene.
But that’s only the tip of the iceberg. The Red Sox now have Gold Glove winners at three of four infield positions, a shortstop in Marco Scutaro who ranked highly in the field last season, and a center/leftfielder in Mike Cameron who has a trio of Gold Gloves in his locker. Unearned runs should not be a problem.
I really like this squad, though, because I think the offense will be much better than everyone thinks it will. Spend enough time listening to Boston sports talk radio and you’ll come away thinking everyone in the Sox lineup is named Mendoza. The talking heads are apparently expecting a team batting average somewhere in the neighborhood of .220.
I realize a vaunted slugger was at the top of everyone’s wish list this winter, particularly those in the media. But consider the following: Cameron has hit 25 and 24 homers in the last two seasons, respectively, and hasn’t hit fewer than 20 in a full season since 2003 (he missed almost half of 2005 due to injury). And while Beltre clubbed just eight in an injury-plagued 2009 campaign, he hit 25, 26, and 25 in the three previous years.
All that with Beltre playing half of his games in cavernous Safeco Field and Cameron toiling in Milwaukee and San Diego. Fenway Park alone should be good for five more homers each. And considering that both are right-handed hitters with solid pop, along with more home runs, the pair will likely find more doubles that scrape the Monster. I expect the production from both to spike over the last few seasons.
Factor in that Scutaro is a significant upgrade offensively over the corpse of Julio Lugo and Alex Gonzalez—the pair that split most of the shortstop duties a season ago—and don’t forget the Red Sox will get a full season of Victor Martinez in the lineup instead of just the last two months of the year. His presence alone changes the equation.
I think Cameron, Beltre, Scutaro, and Martinez will outproduce last season’s Opening Day foursome of Bay, Lowell, Lugo, and Varitek. So while the Sox didn’t add one prized slugger to the middle of the order, they’ve stretched the lineup significantly.
The point here is simple: Are the Sox as good as they would have been had they pried Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres? No. But can they still be a more productive offense than a season ago?
I say absolutely.
I realize Cameron and Beltre are free swingers who strike out frequently, but let’s not forget that Bay was among the league leaders in that category. What the Red Sox have done is significantly upgrade two areas of the team (pitching and defense) while at the very least not weakening a third (the offense). Had they simply chased offense this offseason and left the rest of the mix alone, I’m not sure they’d be any better than they were a season ago.
To me, this is a team that can challenge anyone in the American League. I don’t see anyone else with better balance through all phases of the game.
Of course, as I mentioned, I felt fairly comfortable with the team the Sox unveiled last spring, too. But that team needed a handful of players to reclaim their old form, a hope that turned out to be unrealistic. And while it’s possible that Scutaro will fail to replicate his 2009 numbers, and that Beltre needs to prove he’s healthy and productive again, the additions of Lackey and the improved defense alone make this a more imposing squad already.
Everyone knows pitching and defense win championships. Combine that with an offense likely to surpass the media’s expectations and you’ve got yourself a contender.
Trust me.
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