It’s long been known that Russell Martin, the top free-agent catcher on the market, would command a large contract this offseason.
After rejecting the Pittsburgh Pirates' $15.3 million qualifying offer for the 2015 season, it became clear that Martin was interested in a multiyear deal, with an annual average salary that reflected both his past two years with the Pirates as well as his highly coveted status on the open market.
Well, Martin got just that Monday, agreeing to a five-year, $82 million contract with the Toronto Blue Jays, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports. The Blue Jays are yet to confirm the deal.
The news comes just one day after Rosenthal reported that the Chicago Cubs appeared to be the front-runners to land Martin, with an offer said to be in the ballpark of four years and $64 million.
Suffice it to say the deal is a huge win for Martin—and not just because he was born in Ontario and currently resides in Quebec, per Bleacher Report's Scott Miller. As Peter Gammons noted, the 31-year-old backstop will receive "McCann money" over the next five years.
For the Blue Jays, the $82 million going to Martin represents the largest contract given to a free agent under general manager Alex Anthopoulos, and it will cost the team the No. 17 overall pick in the 2015 first-year player draft.
The five-year deal is a huge risk for Toronto, as Martin is set to turn 32 years old in February and plays the most physically demanding position on the field.
However, it is worth mentioning that Anthopoulos hasn't shied away from taking on hefty veteran contracts in the past via trades for shortstop Jose Reyes and pitchers R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle.
So what are the Blue Jays getting in Martin that, in the organization's opinion, makes him worth $82 million over the next five seasons?
For starters, Martin's 2014 season was his best offensive campaign since 2007, as he batted .290/.402/.430 with 11 home runs and 67 RBI over 460 plate appearances for the Pirates.
While those numbers don't necessarily jump off the page, Martin's impact can be better gauged by the fact he ranked second in both weighted on-base average (wOBA) at .370 and weighted runs created plus (wRC+) at 140 among all catchers with at least 450 plate appearances. He also ranked third in wins above replacement (fWAR) at 5.3.
However, it's what Martin does behind the plate that makes him such a truly valuable catcher.
According to ESPN.com, Martin registered a 38.5 percent caught-stealing rate and committed only three passed balls over 940.2 innings in 2014.
Beyond that, Martin also paced all catchers last season with 12 defensive runs saved—after saving 16 runs the previous year—and finished the season ranked as the third-best framer in the major leagues, according to Baseball Prospectus.
More on that from ESPN Stats & Info: "He got strikes on 85.5 percent of taken pitches in the zone, 12th-highest among the 42 catchers who caught the most pitches last season. That's about 2.5 extra strikes for every 100 of those pitches above what an average catcher would get."
It's hard to fault the Blue Jays for aggressively pursuing an upgrade behind the plate, especially after the team's catchers ranked 22nd, 27th and 22nd in OPS, respectively, over the last three seasons, per ESPN Stats & Info.
Blue Jays catchers ranked last in the AL (29th in MLB) with a wRC+ of 73 during the time frame, while their collective defensive value of -47.6 ranked 21st among all teams.
The signing does raise questions about the organization's plans for Dioner Navarro, who's under contract through 2015 and coming off a 2.0 fWAR campaign, and Josh Thole, currently the only guy capable of catching R.A. Dickey's knuckleball, moving forward.
Plus, the Blue Jays have a promising crop of young arms on the rise in Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and Daniel Norris. All reached the major league level for the first time in 2014 and are expected to be important pieces in the team's 2015 starting rotation and bullpen.
With a veteran such as Martin calling the shots behind the plate on a daily basis, it's fair to assume he'll make a positive impact on Sanchez, Stroman and Norris' respective developmental processes—just as he did with the Pirates' up-and-coming pitchers over the last two seasons.
For the Blue Jays, the reasons laid out above warranted them going all in on Martin in the form of five years and $82 million, even when other teams were reportedly interested in committing less money over fewer years.
But is it safe to assume Martin will continue to perform at such an elite level over the next five years?
ESPN's Keith Law (subscription required) doesn't think so, noting that Martin "is a catcher in his early 30s and already somewhat injury-prone, reaching 130 games just once since leaving L.A."
Law's concerns about Martin’s health moving forward are justified, as a quick look at the catcher's injury history at Baseball Prospectus highlights the various ailments he's battled throughout his career.
He goes on to mention that Martin "is far more likely to be a solid regular, hitting .240/.330/.390 or so with above-average defense but playing only 110 to 120 games a season."
Law's projection for Martin's future seasons speaks to why only two free-agent catchers, Charles Johnson and Brian McCann, have received five-year deals since 2000.
If Martin can remain mostly healthy and produce on both sides of the ball at an All-Star-caliber rate, then the deal holds considerable value.
But Toronto's hefty gamble on the aging catcher for such a lengthy period of time seems likelier to result in disappointment, as it basically expects the next five years of Martin's career to resemble his 2013 and 2014 campaigns.
At the same time, the Blue Jays are also in the market for starting pitching this offseason, just as they were at last year's trade deadline, and landing a few legitimate starters could help put a more positive spin on the Martin signing.
Unless otherwise noted, advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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