Oh, to be young again. And, preferably, with an arm fit for the major leagues.
This is a golden age for young pitchers, folks. The minor leagues have been producing talented arms left and right in recent seasons, and the mark they've left resonates as much as Noah Syndergaard's radar gun readings. According to one version of wins above replacement at FanGraphs, five of the 17 best seasons for 25-and-under pitchers ever have happened since 2010.
Cool tidbit, eh? Darn right, and it leads us to the obligatory question: Who's next to join the party?
Let's take a look at the strongest candidates. Below is a breakdown of five prospects who haven't yet debuted in the majors—sorry, no Steven Matz and Jon Gray—but should be on every baseball fan's radar, as well as a few more names to keep an eye on.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
On talent alone, Lucas Giolito was arguably the best pitcher available in the 2012 draft. But an ulnar collateral sprain in his right elbow led to fears that he would need a certain surgery (see: John, Thomas), causing him to slip to the Nationals at No. 16.
Sure enough, Giolito did need Tommy John surgery. But rather than the derailment of his path to the majors, that's proved to be more like a speed bump.
The 21-year-old right-hander has logged parts of four seasons in the minors, and his numbers still look dominant even after a slight hiccup at Double-A in 2015. In 53 appearances, he owns a 2.63 ERA and has struck out 10 batters per nine innings.
At 6'6" and 255 pounds, Giolito certainly has the stature of an ace. He throws like one, too. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and can touch the upper 90s, earning grades of 80 on the 20-80 scale from MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. And that's just one of three above-average offerings, as Giolito also features a wicked 12-to-6 curveball and a changeup that he's steadily improved into a weapon.
Giolito's control also sets him apart. He's walked only 2.8 batters per nine innings in his minor league career. Teddy Cahill of Baseball America chalked that up to Giolito's ability to repeat his delivery and throw all three of his pitches for strikes.
"You've got to be ready to go when you're up there facing him," Cleveland Indians prospect Bradley Zimmer told Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. "He's got good velo and a good feel for the strike zone, so he can mix it up."
Add it all up, and you get a pitcher who checks in as the No. 3 prospect in baseball according to both MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus, with the latter projecting a future as a "top-of-the-rotation demigod."
That future may soon be Giolito's present. He's arguably ready for The Show right now, and it so happens that there's not a ton of starting pitching depth in Washington going into 2016. For him, the door is open a bit more than just a crack.
Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Consider a recent list of players who have debuted in the majors in their age-19 seasons: Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Madison Bumgarner, Justin Upton and Felix Hernandez.
Clearly, it's a privilege reserved for a special breed of prospect. And Julio Urias may be next.
The Dodgers left-hander made it as far as Triple-A as an 18-year-old in 2015, and his rocky cameo there did little to dampen his career numbers in the minors. In 61 appearances dating back to 2013, Urias has racked up a 2.91 ERA and struck out 10.7 batters per nine innings.
Urias has the goods to be an ace. He works off a fastball that sits in the low-to-mid 90s with movement, and he mixes in an above-average curveball and changeup to go with it. He also features better control than most teenagers, as the MLB.com report on him notes that he threw "more strikes than ever" in 2015.
Even more impressive than Urias' stuff and control is his feel for pitching. He can already be described as a "crafty lefty," as he hides the ball well and is capable of giving hitters different looks.
"He manipulates the shape and speed of his curve, giving it top-to-bottom depth at times, then getting wide and slurvy at others," Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote. "He also mixes in a short slider at times. He deliberately throws from multiple arm angles, adding and subtracting from his pitches."
"He's such a crafty kid," Razor Shines, Urias' delightfully named manager at Double-A Tulsa, told Kelsie Heneghan of MiLB.com last April. "This kid is really good at knowing the game of baseball at such a young age."
For now, Urias is the best left-handed pitching prospect in the game, as well as a consensus top-10 overall prospect. But a major league breakthrough likely isn't imminent. Between his youth and the rotation depth that they have at the major league level, there's no need for the Dodgers to rush his arrival.
It is likely to happen sometime in 2016, though. By the time the Dodgers need help, Urias should be ready.
Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Take a look back at what the Pirates did in the 2011 draft, and them drafting Gerrit Cole first overall fairly stands out after he established himself as a Cy Young-caliber ace in 2015.
But now we can wonder if the 2011 draft might net the Pirates two aces. They also landed Tyler Glasnow in the fifth round, and he's turned into an intimidating talent in his own right.
The 22-year-old right-hander has owned his journey through the minor leagues, which has taken him as far as Triple-A. In 81 appearances over four seasons, he's compiled a sterling 2.07 ERA and struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings.
At 6'8" and 225 pounds, Glasnow is humongous. And that size makes his mid-90s fastball that much tougher to hit, as John Perrotto of Baseball America noted that Glasnow's long limbs and long strides toward the plate make his fastball appear even faster. That and its sinking action help explain how he's also given up a grand total of just six home runs over the last two seasons.
Glasnow also features a power curveball and a changeup that got a much-needed boost in development in 2015. As MLB.com noted, he couldn't get a feel for his curveball after returning from an ankle injury in 2015, forcing him to go to his changeup more often.
Heading into 2016, Glasnow is good enough to rank at No. 10 on MLB.com's list and at No. 11 on Baseball Prospectus' list.
However, he's not quite a perfect candidate to crack the weak back end of Pittsburgh's rotation in the very near future. As his 4.2 career BB/9 in the minors suggests, Glasnow's size ramps up the difficulty of repeating his delivery. Beyond that, the Pirates presumably aren't going to call him up before the Super Two deadline in 2016.
But like with Urias, Glasnow should appear in 2016 eventually. After resisting the urge last year, it's hard to imagine the Pirates won't promote him to help with a potential playoff push this year.
Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Let's go ahead and address the elephant in the room. Due to a 50-game suspension following a positive marijuana test, Alex Reyes' development has hit a slight hitch.
Not to worry, though. The talent is still there, and there's a ton of it.
Reyes has only been in the Cardinals system since 2013, but the 21-year-old right-hander has already advanced as far as Double-A and left a trail of wreckage along the way. He owns a 3.14 ERA in 55 appearances, and he has struck out just about 12 batters per nine innings.
He's done that mainly with a fastball that Baseball Prospectus grades as an 80 pitch, noting that Reyes easily sits in the mid-90s and can climb as high as triple digits. He also throws a curveball that grades as an easily above-average pitch, with John Manuel of Baseball America writing that scouts occasionally rate it as a double-plus pitch.
Here, see for yourself:
Though Reyes' stuff is ready for the major leagues now, his control needs a bit more work. He's walked nearly five batters per nine innings in his minor league career, the byproduct of a delivery that has him throwing across his body.
Still, the consensus appears to be that Reyes at least repeats his delivery better than his walk rate lets on. And with his fastball-curveball combination, he's always going to be able to get strikes with swings and misses anyway.
Baseball Prospectus likes Reyes enough to put him as the No. 10 overall prospect in baseball. MLB.com only likes him a shade less, ranking him at No. 13. Once he returns from his suspension, he should get back on a fast track that leads to a debut somewhere along the line in 2016.
Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins
The best prospect in the Twins system is center fielder Byron Buxton, whom they nabbed with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2012 draft.
They landed Jose Berrios exactly 30 picks later, and he's now their second-best prospect. Huzzah for good drafting!
Berrios hit a bump with a 3.99 ERA in 19 starts at Single-A in 2013 but has otherwise been in control in his four minor league seasons. Across 82 appearances, he's racked up a 2.98 ERA, struck out 9.5 batters per nine innings and walked only 2.5 batters per nine innings.
That last figure is reflective of how Berrios uses his natural athleticism to repeat his delivery and generally overcome his smallish stature at 6'0" and 185 pounds. It was a question mark going into the 2012 draft, but the Twins feel he's provided a suitable answer.
"He's as fit as they get," Twins skipper Paul Molitor said last September, per Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "Don't let the size matter. Everything you hear from our strength coaches and everyone else, the guy does everything possible throughout the year to sustain himself."
There's no downplaying Berrios' stuff, either. He works off a mid-90s fastball that grades as an easily above-average pitch, and MLB.com sees his curveball and changeup as two pitches with above-average potential as well. And as Berardino wrote for Baseball America, Berrios can alter the speed and break of his curveball to give hitters different looks.
Berrios is going into the 2016 season as a top-20 prospect at MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus, but it'll likely be a couple of months before he's seen in the major leagues. The back end of Minnesota's rotation is crackable, but the club will surely let the Super Two deadline pass before calling on Berrios.
At some point in 2016, though, you can expect to finally see the Twins' two best prospects together at last in Minnesota.
A Few More for Your Radar
The five pitchers named above are arguably the five best pitching prospects in baseball, but they're hardly the only ones worth keeping an eye on. Time for a bonus round!
Blake Snell, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
The folks at MLB.com like Blake Snell enough to list him as the No. 14 prospect in baseball and second among left-handers behind only Urias. Deception is his game, as he works off a low-90s fastball with a ton of movement and is also great at masking the delivery of his above-average changeup. Add in a pretty good slider, and you have all the ingredients for the Rays' next pitching wunderkind.
Jose De Leon, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers drafted De Leon in the 24th round back in 2013, and they have been rewarded with a much-improved pitcher. De Leon has upped his conditioning and improved his mechanics, resulting in a mid-90s fastball that comes with solid secondaries. He's a top-30 prospect according to MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus, and he could make his debut in 2016.
Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Stephenson has loomed large on the prospect landscape for several years now, but control problems have continued to get in his way of cracking the major leagues. He does have a big fastball that makes him a top-40 prospect for both MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus, though, and there should be an opportunity for him to break through in Cincinnati this season.
Sean Newcomb, LHP, Atlanta Braves
The Braves landed Newcomb from the Los Angeles Angels in the Andrelton Simmons trade, and he's now the top pitching prospect in their organization. MLB.com puts him as the No. 21 prospect overall thanks to his 70-grade fastball and plus curveball. But because the lefty's control still needs a lot of work, it's not quite a given that he'll be ready for the majors in 2016.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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