Los Angeles Angels super-rookie Mike Trout is officially 21 years old on Tuesday, meaning he can go out and grab a celebratory beer if he feels so inclined (quick, somebody ask him if he's going to do that).
Let's go ahead and consider Trout's 21st birthday a career milestone. At the rate he's going, milestones still to come probably include a batting title, a stolen base title, the American League Rookie of the Year award and possibly a Gold Glove as well.
Trout also has a very, very legitimate chance of winning the big one: the American League Most Valuable Player award.
Those who have been following along with my weekly AL MVP rankings will know that I'm very much in favor of Trout winning the award when all is said and done. He's had a vice grip on the No. 1 spot in my rankings for weeks, and he's once again up at No. 1 in this week's rankings. He has some worthy pursuers in Miguel Cabrera and Robinson Cano, but the season Trout is having blows theirs out of the water.
But the MVP isn't my call (sigh...). It's in the hands of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, and the voters have been known to make some questionable calls regarding the MVP on occasion. The 1999 AL MVP voting comes to mind.
Trout's situation is complicated by the fact that rookie MVPs are few and far between. Only Fred Lynn in 1975 and Ichiro in 2001 have won the MVP award as rookies. That's two rookie winners in 80 seasons of MVP voting. Not a good percentage.
Two things have to happen for Trout to have a shot at becoming the third rookie to win the MVP award.
First and foremost, the one thing Trout must do is avoid slowing down in the final two months. He needs to keep up the level of production he's established since he was called up to The Show in late April, which is unlike anything we've ever seen.
Trout's numbers are frighteningly good. He has a triple slash line of .348/.411/.598, which makes for an OPS of 1.009. He leads the American League in hitting, ranks third in OBP, and second in slugging and OPS.
Trout's 36 stolen bases are good for tops in the American League, as are his 86 runs. Per FanGraphs, he also leads the AL with a .443 weighted on-base average. Both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com have Trout leading the Junior Circuit in WAR.
The short version: Trout is the best player in the American League. By a significant margin.
The fact that he's just now turning 21 years old boggles the mind, but what boggles the mind even more are the numbers Trout is on pace to finish with.
According to ESPN.com, Trout is on pace to finish with 28 home runs, 87 RBI, 53 stolen bases and 127 runs scored. It's of course assumed that he'll maintain his .348/.411/.598 line for the rest of the season.
Ever wonder how many players have finished with numbers like those?
Nobody. No player in history has ever hit .340 with 25 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a single season (h/t Baseball-Reference.com).
So it's by no means an exaggeration to say that Trout is in the middle of a historic season. If he sees it through all the way to the end, him not winning the AL MVP would be a travesty.
But can he keep it up all the way to the end?
One's first instinct is to say no, but what's amazing about Trout is that he's gotten better and better as the season has gone along. His OPS increased each month in May, June and July. He's also proven to be slump-proof, as he hasn't strung together back-to-back 0-fers since the middle of June.
You have to throw conventional wisdom out the door when it comes to Trout. Rookies aren't supposed to be this good, but it's abundantly obvious by now that he really is this good.
But this doesn't mean that the voters are going to have to lend Trout their support when it comes time to fill out their MVP ballots at the end of the season. He'll have the numbers, but voters rightfully consider more than just numbers when choosing MVPs.
There's Trout's team to consider. There's no question Trout has made the Angels a much better team since his arrival, but he hasn't made them a first-place team. Entering Tuesday, the Angels are still five games behind the Texas Rangers in the AL West, and they're only a half-game ahead of a Oakland A's for second place.
MVPs tend to come from first-place teams. Case in point, seven of the last 10 American League MVPs have played on first-place teams, with the exceptions being Alex Rodriguez in 2003 and 2007 and Dustin Pedroia in 2008.
Trout's MVP candidacy will still be strong even if the Angels fail to overtake the Rangers in the AL West by the end of the season, but he won't be a lock for the award. The matter will be further complicated by the possibility that some voters will prioritize veteran players in their ballots.
You know, players like Cabrera, Cano, Josh Hamilton and maybe even Albert Pujols if he stays on a torrid pace until the end of the season.
Of the bunch, Cabrera will be the biggest threat to Trout. He's on pace to hit 40 home runs and drive in 130 runs for the first time in his career, and he's probably also going to finish with a .325 average and an OPS up around 1.000. Even for him, those are impressive numbers.
The voters are going to see those numbers, and they're also going to recognize the fact that Cabrera has been putting up similar numbers for the past three seasons. He's been the AL's most dominant hitter ever since 2009.
Yet he hasn't won an MVP. He finished fourth in the voting in 2009, second in 2010 and fifth last year, but he has yet to win the coveted hardware. If it comes down to him and Trout for the AL MVP, there will no doubt be some voters who will want to throw Cabrera a bone.
That could cost Trout the MVP. There's also a chance that Pujols and Mark Trumbo will steal votes from him and that Prince Fielder could steal votes from Cabrera, thus opening the door for Cano or somebody else to swoop in and steal the MVP in an upset victory.
If the MVP was given to the guy with the best numbers every year, there's no question that Trout would be in line to win it this year. It's the human element of the matter that makes him less of a lock.
The bright side for Trout is that he clearly has a lot of fans out there. You don't have to search far and wide to find writers who have squeed (yes, that's a word) over Trout over the last few months. Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com, Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated and Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com are just a few of many who have waxed poetic about the baseball genius of Trout.
It's clear that there's not a whole lot of skepticism regarding Trout among the "Knights of the Keyboard," as Ted Williams used to refer to baseball writers. They love Trout.
Because of that, it's hard to see them spurning Trout on their MVP ballots even if some of the scenarios we discussed regarding deserving veterans are in play when it comes time to vote. If Trout finishes with the numbers he's teasing right now, he'll get the support he deserves.
And if he gets the support he deserves, he'll win the American League MVP.
So can he win it? The answer is most certainly yes.
Should he win it?
That remains to be seen. But for now, you know where I stand.
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