As the Cubs look toward 2010, General Manager Jim Hendry has to be pleased with the quartet he has assembled atop his starting rotation.
In Ted Lilly, Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells, the Cubs have as deep a four-man staff as any in the National League, albeit not the most talented.
However, unless Hendry and Piniella unexpectedly unveil a plan to return to the four-man rotation , those four leave the Cubs (at best) one card short of a full hand in the preliminary race for the 2010 pennant.
To round out the corps, Hendry will have to either find an in-house candidate suitable for the job, or use the active off-season player markets to acquire a solid fifth option.
Given the volatility that still abounds as the Cubs search for one good move to determine the direction of their winter, Hendry could choose to address the situation in a number of ways. Here are my top five candidates, ranked in descending order of preference (that is, number one is the choice I find most appealing):
- Javier Vazquez: This would be the blockbuster. Vazquez is not the biggest name available on the trade market, where Toronto's Roy Halladay and Seattle's Felix Hernandez dangle. Given that either of those men would cost twice the talent to acquire as would Vazquez, however, the Atlanta right-hander is still the best bargain in town. Chicago would have to move serious contracts to make this happen; a recent article by another Cubs featured columnist provides one possible vision for that undertaking. Personally, I would encourage Hendry to send Lee to Atlanta in exchange for Vazquez, then turn and sign Nick Johnson to play first, allowing Curtis Granderson (whom the Cubs are attempting to acquire in trade with the Detroit Tigers) to bat third in Lee's stead against right-handed pitchers, and Johnson there against southpaws.
- Bronson Arroyo: Reports out of Cincinnati have the Reds seeking to move their rubber-armed right-hander, who has the misfortune of being owed $11 million in 2010 on a club looking to cut payroll. But Arroyo, who will turn 33 during spring training, had a career-best ground ball-to-fly ball ratio of 1.22 last season. He added to that three complete games (two of them shutouts), 220 1/3 innings pitched and a 3.84 ERA. He is not now, nor will ever be, a top-tier starter, but as the fifth man in the rotation, Arroyo would have value because he never gets hurt (32 or more games in every season since 2004) and piles up innings, giving the Cubs the luxury of sending the top of their rotation out there with the confidence instilled by a fresh bullpen.
- Roy Oswalt: Oswalt, whom many long considered a Cubs antagonist, probably deserves some absolution for those alleged sins. First of all, the primary justification given for his vilification is a shouting match-turned-ho-hum brawl he got into with the Cubs in 2004. On the other end of that dispute, however, was then-Cubs catcher Michael Barrett . Once again, that's Michael Barrett . Michael Barrett . Oswalt also has worse numbers (13-12, with a 3.81 ERA) against the Cubs than against any of the Astros' other NL Central rivals. Best of all, he is the highest-paid Astro (at $31 million for the next two seasons, with a club option for 2012) on a team looking to shed salary . If he were less expensive, either in terms of salary or talent given up in trade, he would top my list, He is one of the top ten pitchers in baseball in inducing ground balls. He strikes out more than three times as many batters as he walks, and hasn't started fewer than 30 games since 2003. Oswalt wouldn't be a fifth starter, nor would Vazquez. But he would certainly make this Cubs starting staff better, and do so fast and by an order of magnitude.
- Pedro Martinez: Martinez is the only free agent to be found on this list, for two reasons. First, the market for free agents is thin this winter, meaning teams more desperate for pitching than the Cubs will overpay not only aces like John Lackey, but also second-tier pitchers like Jon Garland and Joel Pineiro. Second, the Cubs simply don't have the money in their budget to add substantially to their pitching expenditure, unless they are able to unload a big contract (like Lee's) in a trade. Martinez is the anti-Arroyo. He will not eat innings in the fifth starter's role. In fact, though he intends to throw a full season , the Cubs should probably count on being without the future Hall of Fame right-hander for some stretch, even if they sign him. Yet, as he showed during his brief stint with Philadelphia in 2009, Pedro still has a little in the tank. His last two managers, Jerry and Charlie Manuel (Jerry with the 2008 Mets, Charlie last year in Philadelphia), have not made good use of Pedro. Martinez has never responded well either in-game or in ensuing starts when forced to throw over 100 pitcher, yet New York's Manuel asked him to do so eight times in 15 starts after taking over in June of that year. In Philadelphia, Charlie allowed Martinez to throw 119 and 130 pitches in back-to-back September starts, and paid for it in Pedro's two remaining regular-season outings. If the Cubs can intelligently utilize him, they may get one more year of solid, control-oriented pitching from Martinez, and at a very economical rate.
- Tom Gorzelanny: Gorzelanny isn't left for last as a slight: first, he faces stiff competition in this group. Secondly, he appears in a recent speculation about packages Chicago could use to acquire Curtis Granderson, therefore throwing into question his very future with the club. If he stays, he is a decent option to hold down the spot. Ideally, however, the Cubs could do better.
All things considered, the most likely scenario could be this last. Hendry has a rather tight budget to deal with, after all, and has at least two bigger holes to fill on the offensive side of the equation. Still, the Cubs would do well to keep their options open, lest Ted Lilly's rehab turns out less well than is hoped, leaving the Cubs' 2010 rotation vulnerable and ace-less.
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