The Los Angeles Dodgers definitely have problems in their bullpen, and they definitely need to seek out solutions.
What's not so definite is that Julio Urias is the one they're looking for.
The Dodgers haven't yet called on Urias, their No. 1 prospect and the top left-handed pitching prospect in the sport, to join their relief corps. But it wasn't even two weeks ago that the idea was in the air.
"Where we're at right now, Urias is leading the discussions," Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts said in early May, per Ken Gurnick of MLB.com. "He can get lefties and rightes out. It's a nice luxury if we decide to go that way."
Urias hasn't gotten any less appealing in the days since. Though he's still only 19—hence his Twitter handle—the Mexico native is with Triple-A Oklahoma City and making older hitters look like chumps. In seven appearances, he's racked up a 1.25 ERA with 39 strikeouts and eight walks in 36 innings. Presently, he's working on a 22-inning scoreless streak.
"In my report tonight, I commented that I wasn't sure if there's much more for him to prove," Oklahoma City pitching coach Matt Herges said after Urias' latest effort, per Michael Avallone of MiLB.com. "He's showing he's big league-ready now, in my opinion."
In the meantime, the Dodgers bullpen continues to make Roberts reach for the aspirin. Kenley Jansen is still a stabilizing force in the ninth inning, but the bridge to him is as sturdy as a rope bridge in an Indiana Jones movie. The Dodgers bullpen has a 3.74 ERA, but the ERA of non-Jansen relievers is 4.30.
It's not hard to imagine Urias as the setup man the Dodgers are looking for. He has a lively fastball that, as MLB.com notes, he's pushed as high as 97 mph in the past. His changeup and breaking ball are also above-average offerings that could play up in a relief role.
Urias is a starter by trade, sure, but he's not yet ready to play that role in the majors. As J.J. Cooper wrote at Baseball America, the southpaw is still working on attaining the durability to match his talent, and he is therefore "not necessarily ready to take a regular turn in a big league rotation."
And as Phil Rogers of MLB.com observed, working out of the bullpen before transitioning into the rotation could result in Urias walking the Chris Sale path to stardom:
But if we're going to get on with the debunking process, this is a good place to start.
Sale was also a hot left-handed prospect back in the day, but that's the extent of the similarities between him then and Urias now. Sale was already 21 years old when the Chicago White Sox took him with the No. 13 pick in the 2010 draft. He was also in the middle of a junior season at Florida Gulf Coast University that resulted in over 100 innings pitched (h/t the Baseball Cube).
And when the White Sox promptly put Sale in their bullpen, they were placing him in a role that he was arguably best suited for. As Keith Law of ESPN.com wrote at the time, Sale's funky delivery and arm action made it "reasonably likely" that he would spend his career as a reliever.
Sale therefore had the experience and the workload, but not necessarily the projection of a starting pitcher. The White Sox's decision to throw him into a relief role killed two birds with one stone: It filled an immediate need, and it gave them a chance to evaluate Sale up close before deciding on his future.
Urias is a different pitcher on all fronts, most notably in his long-term projection. He may only be 6'0", but he's a sturdy 215 pounds. He also has a clean delivery. And as Baseball Prospectus noted, his good stuff comes with a surprisingly advanced feel for pitching. He's not a reliever masquerading as a starter. He's a starter all the way.
All Urias needs is experience. He was only 16 when he began his professional career and has yet to top even 90 innings in a season. Some of that is owed to health issues, such as cosmetic surgery on his left eye that sidelined him for a month in 2015. Otherwise, it's owed to the Dodgers handling him with kid gloves.
Before the season, Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi was aware this needed to change. He told Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times: "[Urias'] innings are clearly going to be trending upwards for the next couple of seasons as we try to build him up to a full workload."
So far, so good. Urias lasted five innings in each of his first three starts. In his last three, he's made it to six innings. If he stays on this track, he'll have no problem blowing away his current single-season high of 87.2 innings.
But if the Dodgers stick him in their bullpen, that's suddenly in jeopardy. There's always the possibility that him airing it out in shorter appearances could lead to an injury. And even if he were to stay healthy and give the Dodgers a better bullpen in the short run, it may not be worth it in the long run.
The Dodgers aren't going to use Urias as a reliever forever, so they're going to have to get his workload to where it needs to be eventually. If they make him a reliever this year, he'll begin 2017 in basically the same position he's in now. That's a valuable development year wasted.
Rather than the Sale route, it's the Felix Hernandez route to stardom the Dodgers should have in mind. The Seattle Mariners brought him up for a look-see in his age-19 season in 2005 and put him in their rotation at age 20 the next year. That was the start of a full decade of good pitching, and Hernandez is still going strong today. The Dodgers have a chance to do the same thing with Urias.
Granted, they most certainly need another shutdown reliever to bridge the gap to Jansen. But those are a lot easier to find than young pitchers with ace potential. Teams can trade for the former. With the latter, teams generally have to make their own.
That's the course the Dodgers are on with Urias. They should stay on it.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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