I've been playing around in several draft lobbies lately and watching box scores. What's nice about this time of year is that it allows us to really take a look at recovering players and learn about injuries before we start drafting.
So what have we seen this spring that would impact drafting and the season in general? More than you might think for a typical spring. Here are some notes taken over the past weeks that may help when setting up your drafts.
Draft Late
The number of injuries to key position players this spring seems higher than normal. So far, Alex Rodriguez has gone down. The Twins have concerns with Joe Nathan and Joe Mauer. The Red Sox's issues include Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia, both suffered at the WBC.
Chipper Jones had to leave the WBC with an injury of his own. If that's not bad enough, Phillies ace Cole Hamels may not be ready for opening day thanks to elbow inflammation. Yesterday, the Yankees came out and stated it's unlikely we'll see Hideki Matsui in the outfield before June.
Beyond the injuries are the late signings. Orlando Cabrera and Nomar Garciaparra have displaced Oakland starter Bobby Crosby. Ivan Rodriguez inking a contract in Houston has likely made him a starter, and he's hit well in the WBC.
If you drafted before now, chances are you didn't get to see the impact of some of these moves. It just wasn't possible. Sure, we can always have injuries, but this is the only time of year where owners have the chance to control for them.
My first major draft in a competitive league is this weekend, and I have concerns even that could be too soon. There is nothing wrong with waiting until the final week of spring training. More position battles are decided at that point, and the margin of error is much lower.
The Comeback Kids
More than just players that get hurt, the recovering players need to get some love.
Chris Carpenter has done nothing but pitch extremely well in camp for the Cardinals. I know, I argue that you can't look at the results when it comes to pitchers, but this merits attention. Carpenter is still looking solid, and his outings are getting longer.
He hasn't given up a run in 14 innings this spring, including six scoreless yesterday.
Yovani Gallardo is another one. Gallardo tore his ACL last year, but is now pitching well this spring for the Brewers. We can use his ability to even be on the mound as a good measuring stick. His injuries were freak in nature and not arm related. He held Arizona hitless through five innings yesterday.
Chien-Ming Wang is another one. He's buried in rankings and can be had relatively cheap. The WHIP might kill you, but he should win 18 games with that offense.
In addition, Jed Lowrie's injury doesn't seem to be an issue, and he'll start the season in Boston as the starting shortstop. Jimmy Rollins looks healthy as well.
When looking at pitching or hitting in drafts, guys that are recovering from injuries can be buried. Watching how they perform and if they can perform in the spring is a good indication of if they should be drafted.
Pitching Really Can be Had Late
I enjoyed this article by the folks at ESPN.com today. Eric Karabell wrote on the sheer number of decent pitchers available after a draft. If you're in a 10-team standard league, players like Joe Saunders, Armando Galarraga, and Mark Buehrle are still going undrafted. Bronson Arroyo is barely on the board.
It's a topic I've written about, more on the way pitching can fluctuate from year to year, and owners need to be aware of these facts.
Power and offense is at a premium, and no offensive player is dependent on others when it comes to most stats. Hitters will still give you average, home runs, and a moderate number of steals and RBI (depending on the player) regardless of who is on base or around them in the lineup.
Pitchers, though, are dependent on defense and offense to accumulate wins. Sure, they can control strikeouts and ERA to a degree, but it isn't in the same realm.
Blossoming Rookies and Youth
We may not always be able to draw on results, but we can draw on perceptions that ownership has of players.
We're hearing word that Colby Rasmus will likely be on the Cardinals' opening day roster. The kid has the power and the tools to be a difference maker. In fact, he likely ends up the starting left fielder, as the Cards would want to make sure they get the kid at-bats if he's sitting in the dugout.
That spells the end to Chris Duncan starting. Take note!
Clay Buchholz is pitching well in Boston, and the Red Sox just cut Josh Bard. I doubt they would go through the season with unproven George Kottaras backing up Jason Varitek. They could look to use Buchholz's spring and success in the Fall League to springboard a trade.
David Price is getting a look as the Rays' fifth starter, but that's not written in stone yet. If he's not in the rotation, his value does take a decent hit in the short term.
Jordan Zimmerman, a Nationals rookie, is pitching well and getting a look for the rotation.
These are the stories we have to look at. When young players are still in camp at this stage of the game, there's always a reason. Teams want to start fine tuning rosters and ensuring they have set paths for success. If younger players are getting innings or appearances, that's always a good sign.
Rise of the Fallen, Fall of the Risen
What we hope many times to get out of spring training is also a sense as to if players can return to form or continue success. In that regard, box scores can be misleading.
CrookedPitch has been down in Florida and spent some time watching various games. A piece of important information that came out of that (to me anyway) was that Justin Verlander looked sharper than he has in a while.
It wasn't just that he pitched well, but that his command was good and his location was solid.
I've received the same information on several players that just simply disappointed owners this past season, including Aaron Harang and Chris Young (OF, Arizona). For hitters, seeing solid contact even when it produces outs is solid.
We can also get validity on sleeper selections. On Twitter, @fakebaseball pointed out that Alexi Casilla of the Twins is stealing bases like crazy and hitting over .400. Will that continue come April? The average likely falls, but it shows that he can be a decent late-round selection.
He made a similar point on Corey Hart after his second half struggles in 2008. Hart has had a solid spring and deserves consideration for that.
(By the way, @fakebaseball is only on Twitter. His posts alone are a reason to hop on the bandwagon!)
Established stars and one-year wonders have us looking at the stats too, if only to see if the spring numbers are concerning. While Cliff Lee has been roughed up, he's admitted to working on location and off-speed pitches. Good things to know that you can't always find in a box score.
Collin Hager writes The Elmhurst Pub Blog. You can have your fantasy questions answered by sending an email to elmhurstpubroundtable@yahoo.com. He can be followed on Twitter @TheRoundtable.
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