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First Half Report Card: Outfielders, and Jim Thome

Yesterday: infielders

Again, these grades are based on a combination of my own personal expectations and each player's WAR.

For a full archive of my articles, check out my page at Examiner.com.

Jermaine Dye

If Dye keeps hitting the way he did in the first half, the Sox will have an interesting situation on their hands at the end of the season. Dye has a $12 million mutual option with a $1 million buyout, and if he ends up hitting 35 home runs with a .919 OPS like ZiPS projects, it's not out of the question for the Sox to pick up their half of the option.

He'll be 36 in January, but a move to first base or DH would not only prolong his career but eliminate his biggest deficiency: defense. Dye's UZR has been pretty bad over the last three years, and this year, it's no different (-7.3 in the first half).

It's for this reason—defense—that Dye's WAR is at just 1.7 in the first half. His offense has been excellent, but lack of range has hurt the Sox on occasion. Dye is a smart fielder, though, and knows how to position himself to make some tough catches at his age. Still, as Dye gets older, there are only going to be more and more balls that drop around him in right.

In the end, Dye's offensive production has made up for his defensive issues in the first half—just like every season except 2007 that he's been in a Sox uniform. He leads the team in home runs, slugging, OPS+, and is tied with Paul Konerko for the highest batting average. He's been one of the few stable forces in the lineup all season long and, barring injury, will continue to be a rock in the lineup for the rest of the season.

Offensive grade: A

Defensive grade: D+

Brian Anderson

With Carlos Quentin due back sometime after the All-Star break, Anderson is going to see his playing time significantly cut (or, he could be sent to the minors. See below) This year was supposed to be Anderson's chance to prove that he could hit at the MLB level. Outside of a short few spurts, Anderson never hit the ball well with any sort of consistency and goes into the All-Star break with an OPS+ of 66, worst of any regular on the Sox.

He had just 11 extra-base hits in 183 at-bats in the first half, contributing to him having a slugging percentage (.317) lower than his on-base percentage (.320). He doesn't have enough at-bats to be qualified, but if he did, his slugging percentage would be fourth-worst in baseball only ahead of Jason Kendall (.275), Willy Taveras (.297), and Russell Martin (.314).

To pile on a bit more, his .637 OPS would only be better than Taveras (.585—remember when the Sox wanted him? Thank God that didn't work out), Kendall (.597), and Emilio Bonifacio (.628).

Anderson is far better suited for a fourth outfielder role, coming to play left for Quentin or right for Dye late in games. His 1.0 UZR isn't great, but it's a marked improvement over what Quentin or Dye can do defensively. He just doesn't have the bat to be an everyday major leaguer right now, and he proved that in the first half.

Offensive grade: D

Defensive grade: B-

Scott Podsednik

Even though the Sox are just 34-33 since Podsednik joined the team May 1, it's hard to imagine being two games over .500 at the All-Star break without his production at the top of the lineup. He fueled the Sox' charge in June, posting a .389 OBP for the month as the team's leadoff hitter.

While he tailed off heading into the All-Star break, the fact that Podsednik is hitting .299 in mid-July is pretty incredible given that he couldn't crack Colorado's opening day roster this year. The adjustments he's made at the plate—namely, his shuffle move—have worked wonders. He's likely going to have to make more adjustments to keep hitting in the second half, but he's obviously at the point where he's willing to try anything no matter how unconventional it is.

Defensively, Podsednik has been pretty solid, too. He has a UZR of 1.6 in left, but when Carlos Quentin comes back, he'll shift to center where he has a UZR of -0.3 in 99.2 innings this year. If he can find a way to keep his UZR in center around 0, the Sox should probably call that a win. Unfortunately, the UZRs of Dye and Quentin won't be great, but hey, I guess anything's better than the outfield of Quentin/Dye/Ken Griffey Jr. that the Sox trotted out at times last year.

Offensive grade: B+

Defensive grade: B-

Carlos Quentin

12 games into the season, Quentin looked like he had answered all questions about his surgically-repaired wrist. He was looking unstoppable at the plate with seven home runs and an OPS of 1.040. Then, something happened—whether it started as a slump and ended with an injured heel or started as an injured heel and turned into a slump, we don't know—but Quentin only hit one more home run after April 19 and saw his OPS drop to .783.

Quentin was pressing, that's for sure. When he went on the disabled list in mid-May, he was swinging at 54.4 percent of the pitches he saw—exactly five percent higher than in 2008. He went from being a selective hitter who waited for a pitch he could drive to a hitter who jumped on the first pitch he saw, usually weakly popping or grounding out.

It's going to be very interesting to see where Quentin is when he returns from his rehab assignment. Will he regain his home run stroke? Will his injured heel affect his already sub-par defense? Will this heel injury flare up again later?

Personally, I'm confident that Quentin's offense will start to come around a week or so after he's back. When he went on the DL, he had a BABIP of just .208—and good hitters like Quentin don't see that stat drop that much unless they're incredibly unlucky (like Nick Swisher last year) or hurt. If Quentin really is healthy, that stat will start to climb back up and as a result, so will his offensive numbers.

Whether he regains his home run stroke is a different story. The nice thing is, though, even if he doesn't the Sox still have Dye, Jim Thome, and Paul Konerko all putting up nice home run totals to make up for it.

Defensively, Quentin probably will suffer because of his heel injury. If he can keep his UZR from getting completely out of control into the negatives (say, to Dye levels), though, it won't be too bad.

Getting Quentin back will be tantamount to making a deadline deal for an outfielder, except the Sox won't have to give up any prospects. Whether he produces/stays healthy after coming back remains to be seen.

Offensive grade: Incomplete

Defensive grade: C-

Dewayne Wise

Even though he's out of minor league options and Brian Anderson still has one left, Wise may be the player to go when Quentin comes back. Yes, he's the only left-handed bat off the Sox' bench right now, but he's just not hitting well enough to warrant a spot on a MLB roster. His 39 OPS+ is the worst of any hitter on the 25-man roster, and the only player who saw significant time in the majors with the Sox who has a worse OPS is Brent Lillibridge, whose OPS+ was 19 when he was sent down.

It'll be interesting to see what the Sox do between Wise and Anderson, though. According to UZR, Wise has been the better fielder compared to Anderson, but Anderson does have a better arm than Wise. He's also hitting better than Wise, although it's not like either player is really hitting the ball well at all.

What Wise brings to the table is a left-handed bat who can be used as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement late in games. Anderson brings a little less speed and a little better bat than Wise, but hits right-handed. The fact that Anderson has another minor league option isn't working in his favor, either.

But Wise has looked so lost at the plate in the first half that the fact he hits left-handed may not be enough to save him. If the Sox really want a left-handed fourth outfielder, I'm sure they could find someone better than Wise on trade market for free agent scrap heap.

Offensive grade: D-

Defensive grade: B

Jerry Owens (no longer with organization)

Not much to say here. How Owens managed to sneak in 12 MLB at-bats with the White Sox this year is beyond me. Even though it's a very small sample size, it's still kind of funny to see Owens with a -3 OPS+.

But hey, at least he had a positive UZR in his 29 defensive innings.

Note: I would've given Wise an F offensively, but that would've given him the same grades as Owens, so I gave Wise a D-.

Offensive grade: F

Defensive grade: B

Jim Thome

Everyone keeps waiting for Thome's production to tail off, but for a guy who turns 39 in August, it hasn't significantly happened yet. Thome's OPS+ of 129 is second-best on the team and his OBP of .400 is best on the Sox. He may not hit 30 home runs for the first full season of his career since 1995, but his numbers are still going to end up being very good when the year is over.

Something interesting to look at regarding Thome is his "clutch" rating. While the stat isn't perfect, it's worthy to note that Thome's rating in that department is positive (0.93) for the first time in his White Sox career. You can't say that Thome doesn't come up in big situations anymore, as the rating shows that Thome actually has been a better hitter in high-leverage situations than in low-leverage situations.

This may end up being Thome's last year in a White Sox uniform—I personally think the Sox should keep Dye and move him to DH—and if it is, he'll have put together a very nice four-year stretch with the Sox. If not, the Sox certainly could do a whole lot worse than keeping him with a one or two-year contract after his current one expires.

Offensive grade: B+

Defensive grade: N/A

 

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