There's not much to talk about regarding hitters on Major League Baseball's offseason market. There was once, but signings and trades have taken care of that. They're all gone now. Mostly.
But pitchers? That's a different story.
Even after the signings of Jon Lester, Ervin Santana, Francisco Liriano, Andrew Miller and David Robertson and the trades of Jeff Samardzija, Mat Latos and Rick Porcello, the winter market is still teeming with intriguing arms. Enough to make sorting through it all a laborious task, anyway.
But we're going to give it a shot by taking a look at the good, the bad and the ugly of what's left. Or, more specifically, the steals, values and busts among some of the intriguing names—hint: names I personally cherry-picked—out there.
The Steals
Nathan Eovaldi, RHP, Trade
Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio says Eovaldi is not in the Miami Marlins' future plans and that a trade is likely. Pitching-needy teams should rejoice, for this means there's a tremendous buy-low opportunity available.
Eovaldi posted a 4.37 ERA in 2014, but that's largely owed to a .323 BABIP that should come down. The reasons for optimism don't end there, as FanGraphs shows Eovaldi is a high-velocity pitcher who lives in the zone. Also, he has a slider that could make him the strikeout pitcher he should be.
Oh, and Eovaldi is also controllable through 2017. With his value down, now's the time to get in on him.
Chris Young, RHP, Free Agent
This is going against sabermetric wisdom, as the fancy-pants ERA metrics say Young's 3.65 ERA in 2014 should have been over 5.00.
But Young is a special case. Brooks Baseball can show the degree to which he lives up in the zone, and he gets away with it thanks to how his rising fastball produces so many pop-ups and weak fly balls. And, really, pitching up has become a market inefficiency at a time when everyone else is aiming low.
Granted, whether Young can stay healthy is a legitimate question mark. But if he were to stay healthy, he could more than justify a cheap one-year contract.
Carlos Villanueva, RHP, Free Agent
What's so special about a guy who had a 4.64 ERA as a swingman in 2014, you ask?
Look to Villanueva's second-half performance. Albeit in a small sample size, he produced a 1.69 ERA and got more swinging strikes than any other free-agent starter, per FanGraphs. As I recently noted, his scrapping his sinker and trusting his rising four-seamer more really helped.
This is not to say Villanueva is an ace in hiding, but he could be a Yusmeiro Petit clone on a cheap salary.
The Values
Max Scherzer, RHP, Free Agent
By FanGraphs WAR, the only pitcher who's been better than Scherzer since 2013 is Clayton Kershaw. When you have a power arsenal capable of racking up a 10.19 K/9 to go with improved command, yeah, you can be that good.
And yet, you wonder about how Scherzer is going to age. His velocity is already declining toward average, and it's hard to trust that a 30-year-old who's pitched with so much velocity and such a funky delivery will be able to stay healthy in the long run.
Mind you, Scherzer's short-term future is too bright for the "bust" label. But if he gets the $200 million contract that Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com says he's seeking, there's just no way it's a bargain in the end.
Cole Hamels, LHP, Trade
There's no need to get into rumors here. As Hamels told MLB Network Radio, he knows he's on the block:
As for Hamels' trade value, one thing that doesn't look like such a huge roadblock anymore is his remaining contract. Because he and Jon Lester have basically been the same pitcher, Hamels' max payout of $114 million over the next five years doesn't look so bad next to Lester's $155 million contract.
But of course, trading for Hamels will require sacrificing more than money. It would cost several top prospects as well, so, realistically, the real price of acquiring him isn't lower than Lester's.
This is not to say Hamels can't possibly live up to the lofty sacrifices a club will have to make to get him, however. If he continues to more or less be Lester's equal, he could at least justify a megatrade.
Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Trade
The Washington Nationals don't have to trade Zimmermann, but his page at MLB Trade Rumors makes it clear that they're open to the idea.
Understandably so, actually. Like the rest of us, the Nationals saw the A's turn one year of Samardzija into four pieces of controllable young talent. Even despite a $16.5 million salary, the price for Zimmermann's walk year in 2015 would be even higher.
Maybe that sounds ominous, but that's how good Zimmermann is. His career-best 2.66 ERA in 2014 was the culmination of him finally becoming an above-average strikeout artist who gets a lot of pop-ups and limits walks. He's a legit No. 1 with a very short list of weaknesses.
Johnny Cueto, RHP, Trade
Admittedly, the odds of Cueto being traded are probably slim at this point. But Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com said there was a lot of interest in him at the winter meetings, and the Cincinnati Reds could bite if they get an offer worthy of Cueto's walk year.
To that point, Cueto is in the same boat as Zimmermann in that the price for his walk year will be even higher than the price for Samardzija's walk year. But, also like Zimmermann, Cueto is worth it.
His health can be tricky, but his 2.48 ERA since 2011 reflects his talent. He has good command of a lethal arsenal, and he can use it to get both strikeouts and ground balls. And though he and Zimmermann are comparable, the bonus with Cueto is that he'll be $6.5 million cheaper in 2015.
Greg Holland, RHP, Trade
ESPN.com's Jayson Stark says the Kansas City Royals are willing to listen on their top relievers, which of course means Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland.
Because Holland is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to make $9.3 million in arbitration this winter with even more on the way next winter, he's the top candidate to be moved. But though he's an expensive reliever who likely can't be had without sacrificing MLB-ready talent, he's also really good.
Among relievers over the last two years, Holland's 1.32 ERA is the best, and his 5.08 K/BB ratio is one of the best. When you have a deceptive delivery, a mid-90s fastball and devastating slider, that's what you can do. So even despite his price, he's definitely worthy of consideration for closer-needy teams.
Aaron Harang, RHP, Free Agent
There really should be something fishy about a 36-year-old Harang emerging to post a 3.57 ERA in over 200 innings in 2014. But really, it wasn't too much of a fluke.
Harang has a long track record of durability, and his 2014 ERA was a product of some worthwhile adjustments. Brooks Baseball can show he utilized a more diverse repertoire, including a new cutter that was tough to hit. Though far from an ace, he looks like a cheap value buy for a back-end slot.
Ryan Vogelsong, RHP, Free Agent
Vogelsong bounced back from a brutal 2013 with a solid 2014, posting a 4.00 ERA in 184.2 innings. In light of that and his solid command of a diverse arsenal, he's worth a look on a cheap one-year contract.
The real question, however, is whether Vogelsong fits anywhere outside of San Francisco, as he's a fly-ball pitcher who doesn't get many pop-ups. So though he's a potential value buy, the catch is that he's only a potential value buy for teams with big ballparks.
The Busts
James Shields, RHP, Free Agent
Shields has pitched over 200 innings every year since 2007, and the 3.17 ERA he has since 2011 has much to do with how he suddenly has his best velocity. So yeah, he looks good on the surface.
And yet there are real questions about the soon-to-be 33-year-old's future. How long before his workload history catches up with him? Can he really keep increasing his velocity at his age? If not, can he resurrect a changeup that Brooks Baseball can show is no longer hard to hit?
Heck, are Shields' decline years already imminent? Beyond the Box Score notes that Shields isn't projected to be that good in 2015, after all:
These questions wouldn't be so scary if Shields was in line for a modest contract. But Lester's $155 million deal likely puts him in line for a $100 million deal of his own. Despite Shields' track record, a deal like that would be risking much.
Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, Free Agent
Maybe it seems weird that a guy who just saved 44 games with a solid 3.04 ERA and 4.06 K/BB ratio in 2014 is still looking for work, but that's a sign of the times.
There's plenty to like about how Rodriguez can still miss bats, but his declining velocity means a declining margin for error. That means what was a bad problem with home runs in 2014 may be an even worse problem in 2015. So even on a cheap deal, K-Rod will have bust potential.
Brandon Beachy, RHP, Free Agent
Because it's easy to remember the 2.00 ERA Beachy had before his elbow quit on him in 2012, he may stand out as a solid value target alongside fellow Atlanta Braves non-tender Kris Medlen, who agreed to a two-year deal with the Royals on Thursday, according to Blair Kerkhoff of The Kansas City Star.
But don't be so sure about that.
Like Medlen, Beachy is also coming off his second Tommy John operation. And when he was able to pitch in 2012 and 2013, his velocity and strikeouts were down from his quietly strong 2011 season. Though he and Medlen are in the same boat, Beachy is the more likely bust in what could be a similar two-year deal.
Dillon Gee, RHP, Trade
We're still waiting on the New York Mets to trade Gee, but Jack Curry of the YES Network reported last week that they were confident something would get done.
Since Gee has two years of club control left, he's no rental. But the price to acquire those two years could well exceed his talent. Gee has posted ERAs in the 4.00s in three out of four seasons, and he comes with "meh" stuff and bad road splits away from the cavernous Citi Field.
At best, Gee is a No. 5 starter. At worse, he's nothing.
Note: Basic stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked. Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Brooks Baseball.
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