The Oakland Athletics have had an interesting offseason to say the least—one extremely difficult to grade.
If you look at it from the perspective that the A's were contenders and are retooling to remain as contenders in 2015, then the grade is an F. They downgraded at third base, traded their starting first baseman and one of their top starting pitchers and did not sign a proven shortstop.
If they couldn't get it done with Josh Donaldson, Brandon Moss, Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester (not to mention Yoenis Cespedes before him), then they're not going to get it done with Brett Lawrie, Ike Davis, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin and Craig Gentry.
Grading this offseason based on the long-term effects is a crapshoot.
Prospect experts and analysts can certainly try, but the truth is, there are too many variables—too many things can happen that throw projections off.
For instance, take the Moss for Joe Wendle trade.
Moss could go downhill rapidly, in talent or in health, while Wendle overachieves and becomes the next Mark Ellis. That'd be an A+ trade for the A's. Or Wendle could be a bust, while Moss consistently hits 25 home runs and drives in 75 runs for the next three seasons.
There's no way to tell. You can only guess.
That said, let's grade this offseason based on general manager Billy Beane's notion that the team is retooling.
First, let's define "retooling."
Rebuilding is a process that takes a minimum of three years, typically, and can last a decade (looking at you, Houston). Rebuilding is a commitment to a massive overhaul—a fire sale or two—to stockpile hoards of prospects.
The A's aren't doing that.
Though Beane himself has never clarified his exact definition of retooling, one can guess it simply means the A's will sit 2015 out, nab a handful of nearly ready prospects without carrying out a complete fire sale and try to pull off a shocker (like 2012) again in 2016.
We're throwing out the high (years and years away) and the low (2015) and grading this offseason based on its effects on the 2016 and '17 seasons.
Now, let's grade each move individually, then come up with a cumulative grade with "retooling" for 2016-17 in mind.
Signing Billy Butler
Beane acted swiftly and signed free-agent power hitter Billy Butler. The move would have provided a solid cleanup hitter and full-time DH who can feast on left-handed hitting—something the A's lacked in 2014—to hit behind Moss and Donaldson.
Butler, hypothetically, could make up for some of the power lost when Oakland traded Cespedes to the Boston Red Sox.
In the short term, this would have been a solid move.
However, after trading Donaldson and Moss away, signing Butler is a bit of a head-scratcher for 2015.
Still, there are two ways to view this signing in a positive light.
First, Butler is signed to three years, so he could very well be around still in 2016-17. When the A's are ready to compete again, Butler remains at DH and is hopefully still hitting for power. At the least, he's providing veteran leadership and teaching the younger guys what he knows about the game, pitchers' tendencies and hitting tips.
Or, he's traded halfway through 2015 and nets one more fringe player who can contribute in '16 or '17.
Either way, there's value there, it's just in the long term, not in the short term.
Grade: B
Trading Josh Donaldson
After completing the Butler signing, Beane simply needed to find a shortstop, decide who will play left field and potentially upgrade second base.
Instead he shocked the Oakland contingent by trading away the team's best player, Josh Donaldson. In the extremely short term, it makes no sense trading your superstar if you intend to compete.
That said, the trade wasn't all that awful.
Oakland had an A+ third baseman and a below-average farm system. Now it has a B+ third baseman and a slightly above-average farm system (before the other trades occurred). The A's upgraded their prospects while avoiding a huge hit on the major league level.
In 2015, it will hurt not having Donaldson.
But Lawrie is no slouch. He'll be 25 to start 2015, is locked up until 2018 and will be much cheaper than Donaldson. Meanwhile, the A's also get a top-tier shortstop prospect and two pitchers who could contribute in Oakland in 2015.
Might these pitchers be the next Jarrod Parker and Tommy Milone, two guys who arrived in Oakland as possibilities to contribute and ultimately earned starting spots immediately?
Grade: B+
Trading Brandon Moss
Beane's next move is easily the worst of the offseason.
On Dec. 8, Beane traded Brandon Moss to the Cleveland Indians for Joe Wendle—a Double-A prospect.
One guy. A fringe prospect.
The Miami Marlins were rumored to be interested in Moss. They eventually gave their No. 1 prospect to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Dee Gordon, which makes it even more confusing that Oakland shed Moss for so little.
Scouts are mixed on Wendle, though.
Jake Seiner of MiLB.com wrote, "MLB.com's Pipeline touts Wendle's hitting ability as his 'lone standout tool.'"
Hitting is undoubtedly important, but of five tools, only the one seems to stand out, and that's a concern. So if Wendle fails at that, he fails period. Also going against him, Wendle is 24 and has never played above Double-A.
Let's hope Wendle absolutely crushes pitching at all levels. That, or he betters his other tools.
Clearly, this move was solely about shedding the $7.1 million arbitration case Moss was expected to win.
Grade: D+
Trading Jeff Samardzija
Next up, Beane traded starting pitchers Jeff Samardzija and Michael Ynoa to the Chicago White Sox for Marcus Semien and three other prospects.
Here's Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle on analysis of each player coming to Oakland in 140 characters or less:
Grading this on the short term only, it's not a good trade for 2015. The A's needed a shortstop or an upgrade at second base. In a trade with the White Sox, one could only hope Oakland would net Alexei Ramirez (and in the long term, the hope was Tim Anderson).
It's Semien instead.
He may or may not fill the shortstop hole. He may or may not be an upgrade over Andy Parrino and Eric Sogard. No one knows at this point, because he's still essentially unproven.
But this is where the "in Billy we trust" mantra comes in.
Beane must have targeted Semien for a reason. He must see something in Semien that he doesn't see in one of his incumbents. So if Semien starts and is efficient, all at 24 years old and for $500,000 and not arbitration-eligible until 2018, then this move will look genius.
And Beane got three other guys on top of that, all for a guy (Samardzija) who would have only been in Oakland one more season before leaving as a free agent anyway.
Grade: A-
Recap and Final Grade
Beane says the team will retool, and he signs Butler, trades Donaldson, trades Moss and trades Samardzija. In return, he gets Lawrie, Semien and a half-dozen prospects.
Beane traded the starting first baseman (an All-Star), the starting third baseman (an All-Star) and one of his starting pitchers (an All-Star). He filled his shortstop hole with an unproven player. He also never replaced the power-hitting left fielder he lost at the 2014 trade deadline.
For 2015, the grade is an F.
For 2016, the grade is a C+.
It's a safe grade, for sure. It means the A's didn't blow it. But on the surface, they didn't openly fleece teams, at least, not that we can see.
The grade could certainly go higher, though, as soon as 2017.
Once upon a time, the A's traded star pitcher Rich Harden for a couple of prospects not many had heard of. One was a catcher who was not the feature piece and spent years in the minors, blocked by so many options ahead of him. That guy converted to third base out of desperation (on the team's part).
That guy is Donaldson.
The C+ grade also assumes Beane is done making moves. The 2015 offseason isn't over yet, though. If he's retooling, then 2015 could just be Part I of a two-part series that includes next year's offseason, too. Count on it.
None of the guys Beane acquired will make the 2015 team better than the 2014 team. But maybe—just maybe—the 2016 team will be even better than the 2012 team, if you know what I mean.
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