When the Seattle Mariners signed Robinson Cano last winter, a prevailing train of thought was that they were probably more than one star away from being a contender.
Except not, as it turned out. With Cano in tow, the Mariners improved from 71 wins to 87 wins and barely missed the postseason in 2014. Since one star was good enough to take them that far, you wonder what one more star could do.
So let's talk about Hanley Ramirez and what he could do for the Mariners.
The word is that the Mariners are a candidate to sign the shortstop, formerly of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Miami Marlins. According to Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com, they're at least a little interested:
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Mariners are more than just a little interested:
Signing Ramirez would require handing over the No. 21 pick in the 2015 MLB draft thanks to his rejection of a qualifying offer, not to mention a whole bunch of money. Zach Links of MLB Trade Rumors has projected that Ramirez's next deal could be worth as much as $132 million over six years.
But the Mariners could do it. They're not in a position to worry about lost draft picks, and it was just last month that club president Kevin Mather said in a 710 ESPN interview that the team isn't looking to scale back its spending after dishing out over $100 million in 2014.
That's one thing that helps explain Seattle's apparent interest in Ramirez. Beyond that, this would seem to be a case of the team's suits listening to the manager.
"I think we're a club that's built for the playoffs," said Lloyd McClendon in September, via Jerry Brewer of The Seattle Times. "Now we have to get ourselves to the point where we're built for the regular season."
McClendon's not wrong. The Mariners are set to return virtually everyone that had a hand in the team finishing tied for seventh in rotation ERA and first in bullpen ERA, according to FanGraphs. Per Baseball Prospectus, Seattle also finished first in park-adjusted defensive efficiency.
As per usual, what the Mariners weren't great at was scoring runs. At 3.91 per game, they finished under the league average of 4.07.
The good news, though, is the difference of 0.16 runs per game between Seattle's average and the league average was its best showing since being above average in 2007. As such, it's conceivable the Mariners really are just one good bat away from having an above-average offense.
And this, naturally, is where Ramirez could help.
Understand this: The Mariners probably wouldn't be getting the Ramirez of 2013, who had a 1.040 OPS and 20 homers in only 86 games. In the context of what he's done recently, that season looks like an outlier.
Thankfully, the Mariners wouldn't need to get the 2013 Ramirez for him to be an upgrade. The 2014 version that had an .817 OPS and 13 homers would suffice. Heck, even the 2011-2012 version that had a .742 OPS and an average of 17 homers would work.
Here's another McClendon quote that hits on why: "You look at really good offensive clubs, and you see what they have at spots 3, 4, 5 and 6 in the lineup. We were good at 3 and 5, or 3 and 4, depending on where we would put [Kyle] Seager to complement Cano."
Every single one of Cano's plate appearances in 2014 came in the No. 3 spot, from where he hit .314 with an .836 OPS. The bulk of Seager's plate appearances came in the No. 5 spot, where McClendon understandably views him as a "prototypical" fit.
That leaves the cleanup spot open for Ramirez, and the reason why even his 2011-2012 self would be an upgrade is simple: When you have the league's worst cleanup spot, the only way to go is up.
Such was the case with the Mariners in 2014. Their cleanup hitters produced only a .647 OPS, the lowest in baseball. If they sign Ramirez and put his right-handed thump in between the left-handed thump of Cano and Seager, what was a major weakness will become a solid strength.
Now, there is a counterargument here. Ramirez's bat may be just the bat they're looking for, but his defense at shortstop was so atrocious in 2014 that it limited his Wins Above Replacement (per FanGraphs) to just 3.4. Knowing that, his total package could only be a marginal upgrade.
If that, even. FanGraphs' Carson Cistulli looked at what the Steamer projection system is predicting for 2015 and concluded the following:
Brad Miller and Chris Taylor are projected to record WARs of 3.2 and 2.9, respectively, per 600 plate appearances in 2015 — numbers which the reader will recognize as very similar to Ramirez's, at a fraction of the cost. So...the Mariners actually appear to have a surplus of shortstops, and — according to reports, at least — are actively pursuing another one.
Steamer is currently projecting a 3.2 WAR for Ramirez in 2015, so Cistulli is right: The Mariners signing him to play shortstop would essentially cancel out the value of adding his bat.
However, it's not a given that the Mariners would sign Ramirez to play shortstop.
As Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported, Ramirez is being realistic about his defense. He's telling teams he'll play "wherever there's a need," including either corner outfield spot and even first base.
The Mariners have a good left fielder in Dustin Ackley, but they have potential homes for Ramirez in right field or at first base. Right field will be wide open if Michael Saunders is traded, something ESPN's Jerry Crasnick hinted the Mariners are looking to do. The only thing standing in Ramirez's way at first, meanwhile, is Logan Morrison.
Would Ramirez provide quality defense in right field or at first base? Likely not. But his bad defense would at least be tucked away at two of the least important positions on the defensive spectrum, and the Mariners would get to keep enjoying good defense at shortstop thanks to Miller and/or Taylor.
Given that, they would still have the goods to be a quality defensive team. Add in a deep and talented pitching staff and a lineup based around an enviable Cano-Ramirez-Seager trio, and the Mariners would have an extremely well-balanced team lined up for 2015 and beyond.
And with the way the American League is situated these days, that would change things.
At the least, Ramirez joining the Mariners would make an already strong AL West that much stronger.
Two of the American League's five playoff teams in 2014—the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland A's—came from the AL West. Factor in the 87-win Mariners, and the AL West accounted for three of the AL's six winningest teams. The power structure of the AL West will be changed if Seattle adds Ramirez, but the odds of it becoming even more entrenched as the AL's best division would be pretty good.
What might be even more likely, however, is the Mariners simply rising to the top of the entire league.
That would mean surpassing all five of the teams that finished ahead of them in 2014, but that's hardly impossible. After all, each has its question marks:
- Los Angeles Angels: Mike Trout is superb, but Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson are only getting older, and an injured Garrett Richards could miss a chunk of 2015.
- Baltimore Orioles: Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis and Andrew Miller played big parts in getting the club to 96 wins in 2014, and it's a good bet that at least two of them will be lost to free agency.
- Detroit Tigers: They probably can't afford Max Scherzer after spending $68 million on Victor Martinez, and their other worries include their bullpen, Justin Verlander's decline and Miguel Cabrera's achy-breaky body.
- Kansas City Royals: They'll probably lose James Shields and Nori Aoki to free agency, and the only way for their killer bullpen trio (Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, Greg Holland) to go after 2014 is down.
- Oakland A's: Jon Lester, Jed Lowrie and Luke Gregerson are likely goners, and Billy Beane's biggest trades in 2014 sacrificed the club's best controllable assets.
Elsewhere in the American League, the Tampa Bay Rays have lost the executive and the manager that presided over their rise to power. The old and feeble New York Yankees are stuck getting older and feebler. The Boston Red Sox are loaded with assets, but they're also loaded with work to be done.
With the door open this wide, the Mariners could make their move in 2015 even if they don't add Ramirez. Their offense would continue to be hit-or-miss, but their run prevention could be good enough if the competition does indeed diminish.
But if the Mariners do add Ramirez and make their offense whole, making their move would be nearly a certainty. He's not a perfect player, but he's just the bat they need to be able to beat teams any way they please.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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