When we last saw them in the regular season, Major League Baseball's six divisions were nice and orderly. A place for every team, every team in its place.
But then the offseason happened.
As you might have noticed, things have been bonkers. We're not even halfway through December, and the free-agent market's shelves are approaching empty and the trade market has produced enough high-profile deals for two offseasons.
Through it all, teams have changed. And as they've changed, so have the divisions. At least on paper, all six have different power structures to one degree or another.
So gather 'round. We need to take a closer look.
In the American League East
The AL East was the plaything of the Baltimore Orioles in 2014, as the O's went 96-66 and won the division by 12 games.
But in light of what's happened in Baltimore this winter, that feels like ancient history.
Nelson Cruz, Nick Markakis and Andrew Miller have all departed as free agents, leaving the O's without a guy who just hit 40 bombs, a solid everyday right fielder and a deadly left-handed reliever. And so far, Baltimore's response to these losses has been to do...well, nothing at all, really.
This wouldn't be a big deal if the rest of the division was quiet, but it's been quite loud in two places.
In Toronto, the Blue Jays have added an elite catcher in Russell Martin and an elite third baseman in Josh Donaldson. They also made a strong buy-low move in swapping J.A. Happ for Michael Saunders. Their pitching is iffy, but they've improved their defense and offense.
Not surprisingly, Donaldson is excited about the latter:
Then there's what's been going on in Boston. The Red Sox couldn't bring back former staff ace Jon Lester as a free agent, but they've fattened up their rotation with Rick Porcello, Wade Miley and Justin Masterson and their lineup by spending nearly $200 million on Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez.
After following up a championship run in 2013 with 91 losses in 2014, the Red Sox looked rejuvenated. And just wait until they acquire a true No. 1 starter.
Consult FanGraphs' projections for the AL East in 2015, and you'll find basically the exact opposite of the division's power structure in 2014. The Red Sox and Blue Jays are on top, with the Orioles on the bottom.
Of course, there's still time for the Orioles to make the moves they need to make. The same goes for the New York Yankees, who need to add more than just Miller and Didi Gregorius with Brandon McCarthy and David Robertson already gone and Chase Headley and Hiroki Kuroda stripped from their roster. The Tampa Bay Rays could also make some moves now that they have a new manager squared away.
But for now, the Blue Jays and Red Sox are clearly winning the offseason in the AL East. If you're looking for the teams to beat, look at them.
In the American League Central
After winning a fourth straight AL Central title in 2014, the Detroit Tigers have proceeded like a team hell-bent on keeping the streak alive in 2015.
The Tigers aggressively re-signed Victor Martinez out of the gate and have since traded for left fielder Yoenis Cespedes, center fielder Anthony Gose and starters Shane Greene and Alfredo Simon.
It's not all good in Detroit, however. With Max Scherzer a likely goner and Porcello traded to Boston for Cespedes, Detroit's starting rotation is weaker than we're used to. Factor in how the Tigers bullpen still looks weak, and they look beatable.
This, indeed, helps explain the hyper-active Chicago White Sox.
In adding David Robertson, Zach Duke, Adam LaRoche and Jeff Samardzija, the White Sox have made serious upgrades to their bullpen, the middle of their lineup and their rotation. Samardzija and Chris Sale, in particular, are a dangerous duo. Here, behold a taste of what they can do:
Elsewhere, the Cleveland Indians now have Brandon Moss in a dangerous lineup to go with their Corey Kluber-led rotation. If the Minnesota Twins don't benefit from old friend Torii Hunter's veteran leadership, their dreadful 2014 rotation will be glad to have Ervin Santana alongside Phil Hughes.
The moves these three clubs have made puts them not only on Detroit's radar but also on the radar of the Kansas City Royals.
Their dream 2014 season has given way to a nightmare offseason. It's a matter of time before staff ace James Shields and right fielder Nori Aoki are lost to free agency. And if replacing Billy Butler with Kendrys Morales at designated hitter is any indication, their replacements will be disappointing.
As of now, the projections still favor the Tigers. But the Indians are right there with them, and the White Sox and Twins are projected to improve, while the Royals should keep from falling too far.
This is a recipe for a dogfight, and it's possible anyone could win it in 2015.
In the American League West
That loud noise coming from the AL West is the demolition of the Oakland A's.
After adding Jeff Samardzija, Jason Hammel and Jon Lester to what already looked like a juggernaut roster, the A's stumbled to an 88-74 record and were finished in the AL Wild Card Game.
After that, A's assistant GM David Forst told FanGraphs' Eno Sarris it was time for some soul-searching: "We decided very early on that we needed to take a similar route that we did in 2011, in November in December, and work hard on increasing our depth, getting younger and getting healthier."
In other words: Time to rebuild.
Gone are Lester, Hammel and Luke Gregerson as free agents, with Jed Lowrie likely to follow. Also gone are Samardzija, Josh Donaldson and Brandon Moss in trades. Next to departures like these, the additions of Brett Lawrie, Marcus Semien and Billy Butler make you say "meh."
The dismantling of the A's might have served as an excuse for the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros to get aggressive. But the Rangers' silence says they're banking on improved health in 2015, while the Astros have been content to merely upgrade their hideous bullpen with Gregerson and Pat Neshek.
That's surely just fine by the Seattle Mariners, whose signing of Nelson Cruz gives them the No. 4 hitter they never had to complement Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager in 2014. And though they got the lesser end of the Saunders-for-Happ trade, the rotation depth they gained is an acceptable justification.
As for the Los Angeles Angels, their most notable move saw them flip second baseman Howie Kendrick to the Los Angeles Dodgers for left-handed prospect Andrew Heaney. He should help a rotation that needed help, but what was the MLB's best offense in 2014 could miss Kendrick in 2015.
That helps explain why the projections have the Angels below the Mariners, who secured a truly balanced team with the Cruz signing. After rising from the depths in 2014, 2015 could see them take the next step.
In the National League East
It took time for the Washington Nationals to get going in 2014, but they eventually launched themselves to a 96-66 record and won the division by a staggering 17 games.
Not much has been done this winter to damage Washington's superiority. With Ryan Zimmerman's move to first base making up for the loss of Adam LaRoche, the only departure they have to address is Asdrubal Cabrera's at second base.
Below the Nationals, however, things are fairly interesting.
The Atlanta Braves have watched Ervin Santana and Jason Heyward depart and replaced them with Shelby Miller and Nick Markakis. That's a short-term downgrade, and the seemingly inevitable trade of Justin Upton will likely mean the same.
Atlanta putting one foot in rebuilding territory is an open door for the New York Mets and Miami Marlins, and both have taken advantage of the opportunity.
Already able to look forward to Matt Harvey rejoining a quality rotation, the Mets' signing of Michael Cuddyer gave them a needed bat. And though the Marlins were overaggressive in trading young talent for Dee Gordon and Mat Latos, they stand to gain a dynamic leadoff hitter and top-of-the-rotation ace.
The one NL East club that should still have a lot of moves left in it is the Philadelphia Phillies, but not in a good way. A.J. Burnett and Jimmy Rollins are already gone, and Cole Hamels and others could also leave town. The team's long-overdue rebuild is underway.
The projections for the NL East in 2015 unsurprisingly favor the Nationals to run away with the division. But with the Marlins and Mets projected to overtake the Braves, the projections clearly see that the second tier of the division has gotten a shake-up.
In the National League Central
The winter noise in the NL Central has mainly come from the heretofore lowly Chicago Cubs, and understandably so.
After a respectable 33-35 second half, the Cubs have made some major additions through trades and free agency. Their big trade brought them a catching upgrade in Miguel Montero, and free agency brought them a strong starter in Jason Hammel and an excellent starter in Jon Lester.
As MLB.com's Phil Rogers sees it, Chicago's rotation is no joke now:
With Lester, who's fresh off a 2.46 ERA, joining a strong rotation backed by a young, high-ceiling offense, Grantland's Ben Lindbergh sees the Cubs as close to a finished product:
They’ll have to build a bullpen out of lesser-known names, and the rotation is still one starter away from representing a strength. There are bound to be a few faltering first steps, but the clock counting down to contention is about to zero out.
Mind you, two teams that will have something to say about the Cubs contending in 2015 are the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Cardinals were strong before they acquired Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden for right field and their bullpen. Though the Pirates will miss Russell Martin, Francisco Cervelli can at least duplicate his framing (see Baseball Prospectus) for the reunited trio of A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano and Gerrit Cole.
This leaves the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds, both of whom have been largely quiet.
The Brewers seem content to bet on what they have in-house, while Cincinnati's most notable moves saw the club swap Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon out for young talent. The Reds, too, will need what's already available to drive them to contention in 2015.
The projections don't see either team having much luck, meaning the action in the NL Central in 2015 could be what the offseason is promising: a three-way fight between St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Chicago.
In the National League West
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a new-look front office led by former Rays mastermind Andrew Friedman, and recent days have seen it renovate a roster that just won 94 games.
"Renovate," however, is not the same as "destroy."
Here's the simple version: Hanley Ramirez, Dee Gordon and Matt Kemp are out, and Jimmy Rollins, Howie Kendrick, Yasmani Grandal and Brandon McCarthy are in. That's not a fair trade based on star power, but it's more than fair based on production.
Rollins and Kendrick will be a defensive improvement over Ramirez and Gordon up the middle, and both also pack quality bats. The solid-hitting, sweet-catching Grandal is an upgrade over A.J. Ellis. Starters don't get much more underrated than McCarthy.
Ace of MLB Stats can vouch that he's pitched even better than his 3.81 ERA since 2011:
Make no mistake about it, the Dodgers are a very good team. And fortunately for them, that's not something you can say about the competition right now.
The world-champion San Francisco Giants have already lost Pablo Sandoval and are currently missing Sergio Romo, Jake Peavy, Ryan Vogelsong and Michael Morse. They tried hard to get Jon Lester but now must find talent on a market that's almost been picked clean.
Elsewhere, the San Diego Padres gave their woeful offense a needed bat when they acquired Kemp from the Dodgers. But Grandal will be missed, and said woeful offense needs a lot more than Kemp.
Then there are the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks. Colorado has done virtually nothing to improve. Signing Yasmany Tomas and buying low on Jeremy Hellickson were good moves, but Arizona will miss Miguel Montero and Wade Miley and may come to regret selling low on Didi Gregorius.
As things stand now, you can't fault the projections for seeing the NL West as the Dodgers' division. They've been the most active team, and they've made major improvements while everyone else has either stood in place or gotten worse.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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