With pitching and defense in charge, the Major League Baseball landscape has become no country for good hitters. The ones that do exist are few and far between, making it difficult for clubs to find them.
As this offseason is showing, that goes double for National League clubs. Maybe even triple. And for that, you can thank and/or curse the designated hitter.
To begin with, the open market only had so many good position players on it. The headliners of the free-agent class were starting pitchers Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields, who went 1-2-3 on MLB Trade Rumors' list of the top 50 free agents. Behind them were only 23 position players.
Between the American League and the National League, the fight for these players hasn't been much of a fight at all. Of the 15 who have signed so far, 12 have signed with AL clubs. With an assist from ESPN.com, here's a look:
That's over $700 million dished out to the top hitters on the free-agent market, and American League clubs are responsible for roughly $580 million of it.
Granted, this might make it look like the AL has gobbled up most of the top hitters simply because it has more money to spend. But that's not actually the case.
Per figures compiled by The Associated Press (and showcased on Deadspin), both AL and NL teams had an average payroll of around $106 million on Opening Day in 2013. In 2014, the average NL payroll was actually about $2.5 million higher than the average AL payroll.
So no, it's not for lack of cash that the National League hasn't been able to compete with the American League for the top hitters this winter. It has a lot more to do with the designated hitter.
That much is obvious regarding three players in particular: Victor Martinez, Nelson Cruz and Billy Butler.
FanGraphs can vouch that the three of them have been easily above-average hitters during baseball's five-year run of suppressed offense, making them rare gems who could help any lineup. But because each is a DH, their markets were limited to the American League.
AJ Cassavell of Sports on Earth hit the nail on the head in writing about the absurdity of that:
And what do [Martinez, Cruz and Butler] have in common? None of them are the least bit feasible for half of the franchises in Major League Baseball. Think about that for a moment. Three of the hottest commodities on the market -- well, realistically two, plus Butler -- were essentially available exclusively to half of the sport.
Even without context, that's messed up. Factor in how National League clubs are hurting for impact bats even worse than American League clubs—it does take a lot of extra offense to make up for pitchers providing so many free outs, you know—and it's even more messed up.
Where it gets worse is that NL clubs aren't missing out on quality hitters just because they have no room for DHs. That they don't have the DH as a bargaining chip is also a factor.
Case in point: Pablo Sandoval. He may want everyone to believe that he means to be a third baseman for the duration of his contract with the Boston Red Sox (five years with a club option for a sixth season), but Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News heard otherwise:
In discussions with the Giants over the past week, Sandoval's agent, Gustavo Vasquez, made it clear that his client was drawn to the possibility of being a designated hitter. The Red Sox have one of the best of all time in David Ortiz, but the slugger who played an instrumental role in recruiting Sandoval turned 39 earlier this month and likely will retire sometime during Sandoval's new deal. The D.H. role was one the Giants could not offer, and it could be a key for Sandoval...
In light of what's happened around him this winter, you can't blame Sandoval for being lured by the DH.
Martinez and Cruz are two examples of hitters who have been able to prolong their productivity thanks to the DH. And despite being in their mid-30s, both were able to become richer men because of it. Martinez got his $68 million deal off his age-35 season, and Cruz got his $57 million deal off his age-33 season.
Mind you, it would appear Sandoval's not alone in being lured by the DH.
The AP reported that Adam LaRoche was made well aware that he's going to spend some time at DH with the Chicago White Sox. The oft-injured, poor-fielding Hanley Ramirez is even more of a potential DH candidate than Sandoval. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise if the Toronto Blue Jays used the DH to help keep Russell Martin functional for the life of his five-year contract.
So of the 12 top hitters who have signed with AL clubs, the National League may never have had a chance at signing as many as seven of them thanks to the DH. Maybe more than that, as Torii Hunter is likely to spend some time at DH in 2015, and Chase Headley and Melky Cabrera might be DHs eventually.
Has the National League had this hard of a time attracting hitters in past offseasons? Not this hard, no. But if we focus on recent history, what's happening this winter looks like the culmination of a trend.
Per MLB Trade Rumors' transaction tracker, the American League is now responsible for 18 of the last 26 $50 million-plus contracts for position players and 41 of the last 61 position player contracts worth at least $10 million dating back to 2012. With spending power virtually the same between the two leagues, you do have to wonder if the AL could dominate like this without the lure of the DH.
Now, this wouldn't be a big deal if the National League had the pitching market cornered. Knowing that the lack of the DH is just as appealing to pitchers as it is unappealing to hitters, you'd think it would.
But no. Not really.
Though Jon Lester, Brandon McCarthy, Francisco Liriano and Jason Hammel have signed with NL clubs this winter, the AL has landed Ervin Santana and arguably the five best relievers on the market: Andrew Miller, David Robertson, Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek and Zach Duke.
There's also a decent chance that the AL will be able to keep Max Scherzer and James Shields. If they remain in the AL, they'll be making like Phil Hughes, Scott Kazmir, Jason Vargas, Anibal Sanchez, C.J. Wilson and John Lackey before them.
As such, it's a stretch to say that the NL attracts pitchers like the AL attracts hitters. And beyond this, there's also the reality that the NL is a competitive disadvantage on the field without the DH.
Specifically, in interleague play.
The American League has won the bulk of the league's interleague slate every year since 2004 largely because it's simply hit better. Since 2004, there's been only one year (2013) in which the difference between the AL's interleague OPS and the NL's interleague OPS was smaller than 19 points.
Put yourself in the shoes of an NL general manager and imagine how frustrating this must be.
They know their clubs are guaranteed to be fighting an uphill battle in a decent-sized chunk of games, particularly now that interleague play is an everyday, season-long thing. They also have to know that this isn't changing until the offensive gap between the two leagues is closed.
And that, of course, isn't happening until the National League gets the DH. Beyond needing it to put competitive lineups on the field in interleague play, the NL needs it to break up the AL's dominance of the hitting market in free agency. Never mind just DHs—it needs it to help it attract all types of hitters.
None of this is to say that the NL needs the DH from a subjective standpoint. I personally prefer AL-style baseball, but I'm not going to flat-out tell you you're wrong if you prefer NL-style baseball. It's the same thing as some preferring Star Wars and others preferring Star Trek.
But from an objective standpoint, that MLB's two leagues play by different sets of rules makes no sense. Especially not now with interleague play a regular thing and with the National League facing inescapable disadvantages both on and off the field without the DH.
The National League needs the DH, all right. To this end, we know of at least two NL executives who have their fingers crossed.
"I think that time is coming," Milwaukee Brewers GM Doug Melvin told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark in 2013 about the NL eventually getting the DH.
"I think we're going to see the DH in the National League," Chicago Cubs boss Theo Epstein told Bob Nightengale of USA Today in 2013. "Hopefully we're just a few years away."
These two may be right about the DH coming to the National League sooner rather than later. But as this offseason has gone to show, sooner would definitely be better.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
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