The baseball season is over. The hot stove season begins.
The highlight of the offseason for most baseball fans, however, is the annual narcissism festival of the BBWAA, which is telling us, the fans, who the best players in baseball history are.
The logic of men like Jim Rice being enshrined over men like Ron Santo is another topic for another day, however. This is about 2010, and the eligibles.
This year, only 11 players return from the 2009 ballot: Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Lee Smith, Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Mark McGwire, Alan Trammell, Dave Parker, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and Harold Baines.
Also on the ballot are newcomers: Robbie Alomar, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Barry Larkin, Ellis Burks, and Ray Lankford are among them.
So among this ballot comes the inevitable question, who deserves to enter the Hall of Fame? Well, this is my ballot.
The past years picks:
1) Bert Blyleven. Quick, how many Hall of Fame eligible pitchers in the top 10 all time in Strikeouts are in the Hall? Answer, all of them, except Bert. The argument against Blyleven, from what I can gather, is that he didn't have the "big game impact" of men like Jack Morris. A quick look at his 5-1, 2.47 ERA, 4.50 K/BB playoff statistics dispelled that idea for me. For a career, his K/BB was 2.80, he won 287 games, is 5th all time in strikeouts, and has the same ERA+ in his career as Tom Glavine.
2) Tim Raines. The current king of unfair treatment from the voters. Whether he's been held to Rickey Henderson's unfairly high standard, being lumped into the Willie Wilson / Gary Pettis / Vince Colemans of the world, or simply having his skills ignored, he's seen it all while awaiting his deserved enshrinement. In his career, Raines had a .385 OBP, he was successful in 84.7% of his stolen base attempts, hit for decent power (170 career HR, .425 SLG), and was a very good defensive player. Lou Brock, in comparison, had a career line of .293/.343/.410, hit less HR's (149), and while he did steal a lot of bases (938), his career success rate of 75.3% is far less shiny than the more selective, intelligent base runner in Raines. Lou Brock, by the way, was a first ballot Hall of Famer.
3) Andre Dawson. What, a Bill James reading geek thinks Dawson is a Hall of Famer? Shocking. This time last year, though, I would have said no. Then I put some perspective on it all. Dawson, as obviously flawed as his offense was, still cranked 438 Home Runs in his career, on top of 314 stolen bases (74.2% success rate). He was also a very good defensive center fielder in his heyday (+4 runs / 100 defensive games according to baseball prospectus). His 70.2 career WARP-3 puts him right on that line of borderline players. There's a character clause in there, and by all accounts, Dawson is a class act. Seems like the kind of person MLB should want to represent them throughout history.
4) Lee Smith. Was he dominant enough? Well, let's compare Smith's performance metrics to another Hall of Fame reliever, Goose Gossage.
Innings: Gossage 1809 1/3, Smith 1289 1/3
K/BB rate: Gossage 2.05, Smith 2.57
WHIP: Gossage 1.232, Smith 1.256
ERA+: Gossage 126, Smith 131
OPS against: Gossage: .6385), Smith: 647
Seems pretty comparible to me. Comes down to, did you agree with Gossage's selection? I did. I think Smith should follow.
5) Alan Trammell. His teammate, Lou Whitaker, got screwed out of the Hall of Fame, and Trammell looks well on his way to being in the same boat. While not the offensive player someone like Jeter is (career .274 EqA for Trammell vs. a .294 for Jeter), he was more than useful, with 185 HR, 1,231 career runs scored, and a .767 OPS. Defense? Baseball Prospectus has him at 110 FRAA, at Shortstop. His 66.8 WAR on baseball projection puts him ahead of Hall of Famers Eddie Murray, Pee Wee Reese, and Willie McCovey.
The New Guys:
6) Robbie Alomar. Likely a first ballot, Alomar was an outstanding defensive 2B who also attained a .814 OPS, while hitting 210 HR, stealing bases at a good rate, and accumulating 10,400 career plate appearances. As shown on baseball projection, Alomar compares well with Ryne Sandberg, who of course is also in the Hall of Fame.
7) Barry Larkin. Cincinatti's Derek Jeter (or their Cal Ripken, whoever you like). Most people would agree Jeter is a first ballot Hall of Famer, correct? Well, Derek Jeter's WARP-3 on baseball prospectus is "only" a 67.5 (still Hall of Fame worthy once he finishes up). Jeter has a slight offensive edge (121 OPS+ for Jeter, 116 OPS+ for Larkin), but defensively, this is not a battle. While defense is tough to measure, the +60 FRAA of Larkin vs. the -170 FRAA of Jeter is a very sizeable gap. Despite all this, Jeter will still end his career as one of the great shortstops of all time. But it's clear, Larkin belongs in that group, too.
8) Edgar Martinez. "But he was just a Designated Hitter." The favorite argument, well, really the only argument, used to discredit Martinez as a Hall of Famer. A Hall of Fame that has already made room for horrifying defensive players like Ralph Kiner, Ernie Lombardi, and Orlando Cepeda. Implication: Martinez should be punished for playing in a period that allowed for a player to be designated to hit for the pitcher, and being on the same team in much of his best seasons as Tino Martinez and John Olerud. The fct of the matter is, Martinez has a WARP-3 (factoring in the fact that he did not play defense) of 79.6. His career OBP of .418 and SLG of .515 are both very impressive, and his career OPS+ of 147 puts him ahead of players like Mike Schmidt, Hack Wilson, and Harmon Killebrew. If Edgar Martinez should be penalized for being a specialist, should Mariano Rivera be treated the same way when his time comes?
9) Robin Ventura. Really? Okay, Robin Ventura versus, let's say, Brooks Robinson:
OBP: Robinson, .322: Ventura, .362
SLG: Robinson, .401: Ventura, 444
EqA (era adjusted statistic): Robinson, .262: Ventura, .281
So Ventura was a better hitter, but what about defense? Well, Robinson had a much better FRAA, with a 286 runs above average number. However, Ventura was a 154.
Overall: Robinson, 74.1 WARP-3: Ventura, 71.2 WARP-3.
Will all these men end up in the Hall of Fame? More than likely, no. I feel these 9 men displayed the skill and talent needed to deserve their place in baseball history. Whether the men who vote will agree with me or not, only the future knows.
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