When asked about Joe Ross’ dominance this season, Washington Nationals manager Dusty Baker elected to offer a simple explanation.
“He’s good,” he said of the Washington starting pitcher. “It’s simple as that. He works the strike zone. Has a good sinker, good slider and this guy is going to be good for a long time.”
That bodes well for the future of Washington’s entire rotation, which has been surprisingly dominant this season. The Nationals' ERA in innings one through six is 2.67, second-best in baseball as of Tuesday night.
Ross, who turns 23 later this month, is the burgeoning star in the group. His emergence among a collection of proven pitchers solidifies its standing as one of baseball’s best rotations. And it’s refreshing for Nationals fans to hear the overwhelming confidence Baker has in Ross. After his start on Tuesday in which he allowed a season-high five earned runs against the Detroit Tigers, Washington’s right-hander had a 2.29 ERA.
Prior to Tuesday, Ross had allowed four earned runs in five starts.
He was the X-factor in the team’s rotation heading into the season after Washington allowed Jordan Zimmermann to leave in free agency. Zimmermann has a 1.10 ERA through six starts for the Tigers this season.
Command of a third pitch is a factor in Ross’ coming of age. It’s a reason to believe his dominance will continue. Bettering his repertoire of pitches can only net positive results.
He isn’t coasting through a period in which he has electrifying stuff, though.
There have been times this season where Ross has had to battle, using location to overcome starts in which he didn’t have as much movement on his pitches.
“I feel like I’ve been able to throw all three of my pitches for strikes, which I think has been my biggest key to the start of this season, because last year I was fastball-slider for the most part,” Ross said. “So being able to throw my changeup for a strike, being able to throw it behind in the count, I think has been really good for me so far."
Of course, one starter doesn’t make a rotation that also includes ace Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark, the only player in the rotation who wasn’t a first-round pick. Roark was drafted in the 25th round of the 2008 draft out of the University of Illinois.
Scherzer is the only player of the five who has struggled. He appears to have caught baseball’s “ace bug.” Scherzer has lugged a head-scratching 4.60 ERA through seven starts this season. His 4.79 FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggests he has pitched even worse than his ERA might indicate.
FIP is a stat that calculates a pitcher’s run prevention independent of the quality of the defense behind him. It’s kind of like judging Beyonce as a solo artist after Destiny’s Child went on hiatus.
Scherzer’s struggles can be taken one of two ways: Either something is seriously wrong, or the trajectory of his season can only go up.
Given that if Scherzer finishes 2016 with that gargantuan ERA it would be the worst of his career, history tells us he will improve—making the latter of the two scenarios more likely.
Last season, Scherzer had an ERA of 2.79 and an FIP of 2.77. In 2014, his numbers were 3.15 and 2.85, respectively, and 2.90 and 2.74 in 2013.
But these numbers are all a product of struggling command.
His location issues haven't shown up in his walk totals. Through seven starts Scherzer has issued 15 walks. By comparison Chicago Cubs ace Jake Arrieta has 16 in as many starts. But Scherzer is simply catching too much of the plate on his pitches, which has resulted in an a unsightly nine homers off Washington's so-called ace this season.
“It is improper location,” Baker said of what ailed his ace in Scherzer’s most recent start against the Chicago Cubs. “That’s the main thing. I don’t care who you are. If you’re not locating the ball—especially the fastball—you know you’re going to get hit.”
That’s correctable, which means this rotation could be even better. The biggest shock of the season for Washington’s starters has been their dominance despite Scherzer’s struggles.
Washington’s dominance on the bump isn’t just the real deal. It could be an even bigger deal.
But the task of continuing the group’s stellar performance also rests on the arms of the three aforementioned starters—Gonzalez, Roark and Strasburg.
Gonzalez (2.19), Strasburg (2.76) and Roark (2.03) are all on pace to have career years in ERA, but their numbers aren’t far off from how they’ve performed in previous seasons.
In 2012, his first season with the Nationals, Gonzalez finished with an ERA of 2.89. The last two campaigns, his ERA hasn’t been as good—3.79 in 2015 and 3.57 in 2014—but his FIP indicates he pitched better. Those numbers were 3.05 in 2015 and 3.02 in 2014. In Roark’s only other season as a full-time starter—he split time in the rotation and bullpen last season—he posted a 2.85 ERA.
Strasburg has been a player whose ERA has always hovered around 3.00, except last season when it was 3.46. But his FIP in 2015 was 2.81. This could be the third straight year he finishes with an FIP under 3.00.
And, more importantly, he is throwing ace-like stuff and was rewarded with a seven-year, $175 million contract on Monday. Strasburg has proved this season he is capable of filling the current void left by Scherzer at the top of the rotation.
That was the plan, at least, when Washington made him the first overall pick in 2009.
But injuries, including Tommy John surgery in 2010, have hurt his ascension through baseball's pitching ranks. As recently as last season, he struggled with inflammation in his elbow. If he can stay healthy, Strasburg can challenge for that top spot, even if Scherzer turns his season around.
The Nationals also have an insurance policy in Lucas Giolito, who is expected to be promoted to the majors this season, according to MLB.com. The site also says Giolito "has the highest ceiling" among minor league pitchers.
So, should any of Washington's starters falter, they have Giolito awaiting his opportunity.
It’s difficult to predict the future, but past performance is our best indicator. Each of these players has done it before. Now, they’re doing it collectively.
So there’s little question as to whether this group can keep its current pace. All that’s left to answer: How much better can it get?
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. All quotes were obtained firsthand.
Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.
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