Yesterday I received a text from a friend who wrote: "Inexcusable if the Pads non-tender Correia."
That was the first time I had heard any discussion about non-tendering Correia, and frankly, I was a bit surprised. However, my immediate reaction was not one of anger, but instead, as I usually do, I tried to defend the possible action.
I wrote back: "Well...some guys are getting more in arbitration now than on the market, so it might make sense...[plus] its Correia we're talking about-at best he's an average pitcher."
That was yesterday. Today, after further reflection, I see no reason for the Padres to not tender Kevin Correia a contract.
The team has four options: Go to arbitration with Correia, agree to a contract with Correia, trade Correia, or let him leave for nothing.
Because Correia is a good bet to provide at least some value in excess of his contract in 2010, Correia is indeed tradeable, and the "let him leave for nothing" option is strictly dominated.
Last season, Correia threw nearly 200 innings, and had a 3.91 ERA and a 3.81 FIP.
Fangraphs valued him at 2.4 wins above replacement, and nearly $11 million. With incentives, Correia made about $1 million.
No matter how you break it down, Correia was a valuable pitcher.
The problem, of course, is that Correia had never before been such a valuable pitcher, and expecting the same type of production is probably a bit optimistic...or is it?
Bill James projects a 4.23 ERA in 217 innings for Correia. Zips has Correia pegged for a 3.93 ERA in 171 innings.
Basically, both Zips and James project Correia to be a bit above league average, just like last season. I personally see Correia as no better than an average pitcher, but that is still very valuable, especially to a team like the Padres that does not currently have many (if any) pitchers projected to be much better than average.
Lets say, just for the sake of argument, that Correia will be a 2 WAR pitcher in 2010, valuing him around $9 million.
Reports are Correia wants to be paid between $3M and $4M. Meanwhile, the Padres want to pay him something closer to $2 million. In either case, Correia's expected production exceeds his salary.
Not tendering Correia a contract makes no sense. If the team cannot afford the $3 million or $4 million it might take to employ Correia, they should trade him to a team that can.
Doing so will allow the team to get something, rather than nothing for Correia. In fact, they could probably get something decent.
The argument that the Padres would have no leverage in trade negotiations is irrelevant. Assuming there are a decent amount of teams (and there are) who could benefit from adding a league average starting pitcher to their rotation, competition between teams should allow the Padres to get a fair deal for Correia.
To sum things up: The Padres should not non-tender Kevin Correia. He is not expected to earn more money in 2010 than he is expected to produce on the field. The Padres would benefit from either keeping Correia, or trading him to another team.
Of course, the Padres may just be using the threat of a non-tender as a negotiating ploy, making all this excitement somewhat moot.
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