For the second time in less than a year, the Boston Red Sox have paid a heavy price for a left-handed starter they hope can take them over the top. Actually, better make that a very heavy price.
But just like the first time, you can see where they're coming from.
The Red Sox reportedly acquired All-Star southpaw Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres on Thursday evening. Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune had the news first and was among the first to confirm the parameters. It's a one-for-one deal involving one of Boston's top prospects:
This isn't quite the Red Sox paying $217 million to sign David Price. However, the blow to Boston's farm system is just as bad, if not worse, than the one it took in the club's last trade with the Padres.
When the Red Sox parted with center fielder Manuel Margot and shortstop Javier Guerra in a four-player package to acquire closer Craig Kimbrel last November, they gave up two prospects who were talented but not needed in Boston. At the major league level, Xander Bogaerts blocked Guerra, while Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. blocked Margot.
Anderson Espinoza, however, is a different story.
Baseball America just ranked him the No. 15 prospect in the sport. He made it into the top 10 in Bleacher Report's future 50, in which I raved about a fastball-curveball-changeup combination that's advanced for a dude who's still only 18.
The Red Sox's future sure looked good with Espinoza in it. With Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers positioned to one day join Bogaerts, Betts and Bradley, Boston's future lineup is loaded with homegrown talent. Espinoza could have been the homegrown ace to go with them.
But the thing about the future is it's not here yet. And in the case of the Red Sox, they shouldn't prioritize a promising future over a promising present.
It hasn't all been pretty, but the Red Sox's 49-38 record would make them one of the American League's two wild-card teams if the season ended today. It also puts them just two games behind the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East race.
This is a good team—minus one missing link, of course, and everyone knows what that is.
The Red Sox's starting pitching ranks 19th in the league with a 4.72 ERA. That figure would look worse without All-Star knuckleballer Steven Wright (2.68 ERA) and steady sinkerballer Rick Porcello (3.66 ERA). Price has been disappointing, and the back of the rotation has been nothing short of a dumpster fire.
It feels weird to have to reassure anyone about an All-Star pitcher, but Pomeranz can help. Although his career traveled a rocky road, he hasn't put up a 2.47 ERA in his 17 starts by accident. His 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings underscore his dominance. At the heart of that is excellent stuff.
The 27-year-old doesn't pop any eyes with his fastball velocity, but he's averaging a solid 90 mph with decent vertical rise, per Baseball Prospectus. It works to set up his curveball, which Brooks Baseball reveals he throws about as often as his four-seamer.
And my, what a curveball it is. Here he is using it to finish off eight of 10 strikeouts in an April 20 start against the Pittsburgh Pirates:
"His curveball is as good as a left-handed curveball there is in the game right now," said Padres skipper Andy Green after that game, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. "It's playing very well. Ten punchouts were the product of that curveball."
If you're thinking Clayton Kershaw might take offense to Green's opinion of Pomeranz's hook, well, maybe not. It's in the same ballpark as Kershaw's curve in one respect: The three-time Cy Young Award winner is the only lefty starter who is getting more downward break on his curve than Pomeranz in 2016, per Baseball Prospectus.
Pomeranz has also put more trust in his changeup and a new cutter in this year. Pros best use such pitches to combat opposite-handed batters, so we shouldn't be surprised Pomeranz has squashed a nagging platoon split against right-handed batters:
- vs. RHB, 2011-2015: .775 OPS
- vs. RHB, 2016: .546 OPS
Way back in 2011 and 2012, Pomeranz was a top-100 prospect on the basis of his fastball-curveball combination. Now he's a four-pitch pitcher, and each offering is a good one. To wit, hitters are batting under .200 against all of his primary pitches, per Brooks Baseball.
Of course, he's not perfect. Pomeranz is walking 3.6 batters per nine innings. This makes him a Rich Hill-type pitcher: a lefty who gets by more on the sheer quality of his stuff than on where he puts it.
But that's OK. The Red Sox don't need Pomeranz to be their best starter. Price is supposed to be that guy, and his solid 3.14 ERA since mid-May is an indication that he may still be just that. With Wright and Porcello also doing solid work, the Red Sox don't even need Pomeranz to be their No. 2. They just need him to be a much-needed stabilizing force.
If he can be that, this Red Sox team has the potential to be pretty good.
It's gotten this far mainly on the strength of MLB's top run-scoring offense. That offense plus a stable rotation is a combination that could do a lot of damage. And then there's the potential for the newly acquired Brad Ziegler to combine with a healthy Kimbrel—who's on the 15-day disabled list due to a knee injury—to form a shutdown bullpen.
If it all comes together, the 2016 Red Sox could go far.
If not, that's not the end of the road. The Red Sox control Pomeranz through 2018. And though the idea of having him through 2018 may not be as appealing as the thought of having Espinoza for much longer, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald raised a good point:
Prospects are great until they're not, and they're often not. And as tantalizing as Espinoza is, it is indeed much too soon to assume that an 18-year-old at Single-A is going to be a major league ace.
There's no need to tell that to Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. He's never been afraid to deal star minor league talent for star major league talent, and he has enough hits on his track record (Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, etc.) to get the benefit of the doubt.
The Pomeranz trade could be another hit on that track record. If it is, a price that feels heavy now won't feel so cumbersome later.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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