With the list of potential free agents being adequate at best, this Hot Stove season will be heated with potential trades. Leading the list of "Who Will Win The (insert name) Sweepstake" is Roy Halladay.
The current market seems to include both Los Angeles and New York teams, Boston and Chicago Cubs. I expect this list to grow with Atlanta, St. Louis and Philly jumping in the game.
Before deciding who will win and pay at least $120 million over six years, we need to understand what the Toronto Blue Jays need and who they may want.
Needs
New GM Alex Anthopoulos (aka GM Alex) needs to make a splash and regroup the Blue Jays with this trade.
The Blue Jays infield are set at second and third (tentatively) with Aaron Hill and Edwin Encarnacion, respectively. First base is currently manned by Lyle Overbay, but an improvement wouldn't hurt.
The outfield spots are locked with Adam Lind, Travis Snider and Vernon Wells. Though, I'm sure the Blue Jays wish they can turn back the clock on that Wells signing.
The pitching staff has some depth with Ricky Romero, Scott Richmond, Brett Cecil, Brian Tallet, and the return of Shane Marcum. Plus, Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch are expected back before the All-Star game.
Despite all those names, a veteran pitcher who can give them some quality innings at the No. 2 spot is required. This may need to be acquired with the saved money.
For any team, bullpen help is always required. The Blue Jays seem to have a quality 'pen with Jason Frasor, Brandon League, Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs, Jesse Carlson, and Shawn Camp.
Reviewing the roster, the needs lie at catcher, shortstop, DH, and a solid No. 2 for the rotation.
Market
Understanding what positions are required we would expect the Blue Jays to aim for two major league ready players and two prospects (one top).
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are loaded with young inexpensive players who are starting to make a big impact, plus, the Dodgers always seem to have talented prospects.
A trade centered around OF Andre Ethier (2009 salary: $3.1 million) and RP George Sherrill ($2.75 million) would be a good start. Especially if GM Alex was able to get SS Ivan DeJesus included.
To get these players, GM Alex will have to sell Roy Halladay to the Dodgers and make them understand that they really need him, not only to compete with their divisional foes, but against the Phillies.
The Dodgers do need Halladay to ace their rotation that includes Chad Billinglsey (faded in the second half), Clayton Kershaw (a star in the making), Hiroki Kuroda, and Jason McDonald. The rotation fell apart towards the end of the season and have too many question marks leading into 2010.
The Dodgers have a history of not trading young players. This may be a tough trade to complete, but one that seems to be a nice fit for both.
TRADE POSSIBILITY RATING (*** out of five)
2. Los Angeles Angels
The past five years, the Angels have become stubborn as the Dodgers in trading young talent. In my opinion, this has hurt the Angels from acquiring guys like Johan Santana and Matt Holliday. Though I do give them kudos with the Mark Teixeira trade in '08.
Even though the Angels may lose ace John Lackey to free agency, they are still solid in the rotation with Jered Weaver, Earvin Santana, Scott Kazmir, and Joe Saunders.
They may look to acquire a middle to back-end pitcher to fill their rotation, rather than trade for Halladay.
If the Angels wanted to win the sweepstakes, you can expect the Blue Jays to ask for a package centered around 1B Kendry Morales or OF Juan Rivera. Getting Jeff Mathis included would be nice.
I don't see the Angels making a trade for Halladay unless the price is extremely favorable.
TRADE POSSIBILITY RATING (* out of five)
3. New York Yankees
The World Champions are always linked to rumors, even if they are about Angelina Jolie and Jennifer Aniston (what beauties).
I don't see a fit, especially since they play in the same division. It's bad enough that AJ Burnett went interdivision;not going to happen with the Blue Jays in control of his destiny.
Plus, they don't have the right personnel to trade unless they blow GM Alex away with Melky Cabrera ($1.4 million), Phil Hughes, and at least one more top prospect. Not sure if that still would be enough.
TRADE POSSIBILITY RATING (* out of five)
4. New York Mets
The Mets are the most desperate to make this trade possibility a reality. They need to overcome the terrible signing of Oliver Perez and the regression Mike Pelfrey made in 2009. This trade would sure up the top of the rotation with Johan Santana.
They also need to please the angry fan base, who have seen their beloved team collapse in September in 2007 and 2008 after losing game seven in 2006, if they want to fill those nice seats in Citi Field.
Similar to the Santana sweepstakes, the Mets GM Omar Minaya, will need to continually pursue this trade and stay visible to GM Alex. Also they play in the other league which helps.
Any trade will need to start with 25-year old Pelfrey ($2.2 million) and may also require top outfield prospect Fernando Martinez or prospect first baseman Ike Davis. Other players in the picture include P Bob Parnell, P Eddie Kunz, and P Jonathon Niese.
TRADE POSSIBILITY RATING (**** out of 5)
5. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are starting to realize that Carlos Zambrano's past workload is catching up with him, therefore another ace is required.
Getting Halladay should be enough to dethrone the Cardinals and seriously compete for the NL Pennant.
There's no one player to center a deal, but definitely a package with 3B/OF Jake Fox, SP Randy Wells, or SP Sean Marshall and Of Micah Hoffpauir should do it.
TRADE POSSIBILITY RATING (** out of five)
6. Philadelphia Phillies
Would the Phillies stand pat again and allow the Mets to obtain a top pitcher?
If not, they shouldn't have a problem acquiring Halladay to join what would become the best rotation since the 90s Braves.
They could easily put a package together which starts with Rookie-of-the-Year runner-up SP JA Happ or super prospect SP Kyle Drabek (son of 1990 NL Cy Young Winner Doug). The Phillies would probably be willing to include outfielders Ben Francisco or John Mayberry to complete the deal.
I truly feel that the Phillies could complete a deal in a heartbeat if they mention one of the two pitchers.
The Phillies may feel they have enough talent and pitching to compete and win again with the current roster, especially, with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Happ, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton in the rotation. Let's not forget one of the best offenses in baseball as well.
They only receive three stars because they probably feel that they are good enough and are looking to keep the payroll around $105 million.
TRADE POSSIBILITY RATING (*** out of five)
7. Boston Red Sox
Similar to the Yankees, I can't fathom GM Alex trading Halladay to a division rival, but you never know if the Red Sox are so desperate that they offer a package similar to SS Jed Lowrie, P Clay Buchholz, and P Michael Bowden.
TRADE POSSIBILITY RATING (* out of five)
Trade Partners
After analyzing the market and potential players that would be involved, I have come to the following conclusions:
a. Phillies have the best talent to complete the trade, but is unlikely to be a partner.
b. Mets are the most desperate to complete this trade similar to the Santana sweepstakes and have the payroll room to pay the hefty tag.
c. Dodgers are the best trade partner if they are willing to part with Ethier.
d. Both the Yankees and Red Sox will be content with having Halladay leave the American League like they were with Santana.
Outcome
GM Alex needs to make a big splash and fill some holes with this trade. The Blue Jays can continue to be contenders next year and in the near future even after losing Halladay, Alex Rios, Burnett, and BJ Ryan in the past year.
It would help if they played in another division.
Trades like this and the fan speculations, are the main reasons why the Baseball Hot Stove League have morphed into a sport in itself.
Perhaps, I should start a Fantasy Hot Stove League.
Let the fun begin and enjoy.
Happy Thanksgiving.
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