It has been the same problem all season long, and it was the No. 1 concern going into this postseason.
The Kansas City Royals’ starting pitchers had been inconsistent at best. From Opening Day though the end of the season, that has been the case. October baseball’s bigger stage and brighter lights have done nothing to improve the outlook over the team’s first eight playoff games.
Johnny Cueto continued that trend with a historically miserable outing in Game 3 of the American League Championship Series against the Toronto Blue Jays. Cueto, Kansas City’s supposed ace, failed to get through the third inning as the Blue Jays eventually won an 11-8 shootout Monday night at Rogers Centre.
The Royals now lead the best-of-seven series 2-1, but with a rotation as shaky as theirs and the next two games in Toronto’s hitter haven, the Royals have only a tenuous grasp on the series.
Rough night for Johnny Cueto. He allows 8 runs in 2 IP. pic.twitter.com/FO6CJC0PHr
— Baseball Tonight (@BBTN) October 20, 2015
Cueto has been the team’s model of inconsistency since it acquired him prior to the July non-waiver trade deadline. At the time of the deal, it seemed the Royals added the necessary piece they were lacking to win a World Series.
Through Cueto’s first four starts as a Royal, he was marvelous. He allowed six earned runs in 30 innings (1.80 ERA) and opposing hitters had a .257 OBP and .590 OPS. Indeed, the defending American League champs had their No. 1 starter.
Since then, though, Cueto has been a mystery. The Royals have no idea how he will pitch from start to start, and his 6.82 ERA in his next 12 starts, including this postseason, shows why. Aside from the eight runs in two innings he allowed Monday, he also walked four and struck out only two.
Royals manager Ned Yost stunningly said he never considered taking Cueto out before he did, five batters into a six-run third inning.
“It was the second inning,” Yost told reporters in his postgame press conference. “I was hoping he would find a way just to make an adjustment.” ESPN's David Schoenfield and the Kansas City Star's Sam Mellinger chimed in:
From @ESPNStatsInfo: Cueto allowed 11 runners, tied for most in postseason history, 2 IP or fewer. But Yost didn't leave him in too long!
— David Schoenfield (@dschoenfield) October 20, 2015
This would’ve made for a hell of a comeback if Johnny Cueto was merely terrible, instead of historically terrible.
— Sam Mellinger (@mellinger) October 20, 2015
When asked if he wonders which version of Cueto he will get every time he takes the mound—Cueto pitched eight innings and allowed two runs in his Game 5 start in the AL Division Series—Yost backed his guy.
“No. I don’t,” Yost told the reporters on site. “His next start, he’s going to work on some things on the side and I’ll guarantee you if he makes another start in this series he’ll be good.”
Dan Plesac, former major league pitcher and current MLB Network analyst, wasn’t having it.
“I don’t buy it,” Plesac said on the network’s postgame show. “It’s been too up and down. Too much volatility.”
That quote could be directly aimed at the rest of the rotation, not just Cueto.
Yordano Ventura and Edinson Volquez, the team’s other two starters to this point in the playoffs, have not injected enough dominance into their starts to believe either can pick up Cueto’s slack and lead the group.
Volquez has been good this postseason, allowing three runs in 11.2 innings (2.31 ERA), but he also had a 4.89 ERA in his final 35 innings of the regular season.
Ventura has given up nine earned runs in his 12.1 postseason innings (6.57 ERA) and opponents have a .909 OPS against him. He also had his share of late-season inconsistency before the playoffs started, posting a 5.32 ERA over four starts before allowing just one run over his last two regular-season turns.
Entering this postseason, the Royals’ rotation had a 4.34 ERA during the regular season, among the worst in the majors and the highest among postseason teams. It figured to be a weakness, or at least a question mark, for them when the playoffs started, and now we know it to be one. The starters’ 5.85 ERA in eight playoff starts is the worst among teams that have played more than one game.
“Eight runs should be enough to win a ball game,” Yost told reporters, “but tonight it wasn’t.”
That is the risk this rotation runs right now. The team has to walk on eggshells no matter who has started because the rotation’s inconsistency rarely gives it an easy walk through the other club.
The Royals turn to Chris Young in Game 4. He enters as a severe fly-ball pitcher throwing in a hitter’s park against one of the best offenses of its generation. On the surface, this does not seem like an ideal matchup for Young.
Then again, none of the Royals starters would fit that billing. Sure, they are capable of having a strong outing the way Volquez did in Game 1 when he threw six shutout innings. But this is also a group capable of losing when its offense scores eight runs. When that happens, it negates the team’s one true advantage—the back of its bullpen—because it becomes a non-factor when the team is behind by so much.
The Royals have the lead in this series. However, going forward, including into Tuesday’s Game 4, the starting pitching invokes at least a sliver of doubt every time it takes the ball. And ultimately, that could be the part of the team that wakes up the Royals from their World Series dreams.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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