The veneer of invincibility that struck fear and intimidation into so many opponents has faded, and it has been replaced by a sense, real or perceived, of vulnerability.
Sometimes that's all it takes to lose the advantage.
The Kansas City Royals bullpen, specifically the once-dominant three at the back end, is now vulnerable. This was the group that virtually carried the Royals into the World Series last season, making it tolerable for the team to have a rotation that pumped fear into the hearts of no postseason opponent.
That was left to the three-headed relief monster of seventh-inning guy Kelvin Herrera, setup man Wade Davis and closer Greg Holland. But over this second half of the season, there have been chinks in what was once viewed as an impenetrable part of the team, and that could have devastating effects on the Royals' run at another American League pennant.
The problem came to light once again Friday night when Holland allowed two runs to the Detroit Tigers in the 12th inning, blowing his fifth save and pumping his ERA to 6.00 over his last 14 appearances (12 innings).
The #Royals appear to have a closer issue.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) September 19, 2015
"I've never not trusted you," Royals manager Ned Yost said he told Holland last week (via Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star). "I'm not going to start now."
That was before Holland's fastball velocity was in the 80s and he walked a guy, allowed a hit and threw a wild pitch while saving a game against the Cleveland Indians last Tuesday. That prompted a slightly different tune.
"Being fair, Holly's velocity has dropped," Yost told reporters. "But he's always been a guy who has done it. Until he proves he can't do it, he's going to get the opportunity to do it. He's earned it, over the years."
But…
"If it gets to be an issue, we'll evaluate it," Yost added. "It hasn't become an issue yet. People want to get nervous because he's throwing 90 or 91 mph. That's fine. But right now, it really hasn't become an issue. If it does, we'll evaluate it."
Holland threw a clean inning two days later for his 32nd save, but then came Friday's debacle in which he issued a bases-loaded walk and the walk-off hit. That obviously brought on questions about Holland's role, ones Yost was not willing to answer.
Yost, as a manager with the Milwaukee Brewers and the Royals, has always been loyal to his players and will fiercely defend them to the media when they are struggling. He proved that to be true again after Holland's showing against the Tigers.
"I'm done talking about Greg right now," Yost snapped at reporters, choosing not to address the elephant tucked into the corner of the manager's office. "I'm done talking about Greg tonight."
If Yost is done using him at any point, the Royals have an excellent replacement.
Wade Davis is arguably the best reliever in baseball this season. He leads all qualified arms with a 0.88 ERA, is second with a 91.1 percent strand rate and is eighth in FanGraphs wins above replacement, although he is only that low in the strikeout-centric formula because his 10.22 strikeouts per nine innings rank 37th in the majors among relievers.
Davis, an All-Star this year and owner of a 0.63 ERA in 14.1 postseason innings last year, also has not allowed an earned run in his last 14 outings. He's struck out 17 in that span.
For now, Holland's role remains the same. But he is far from the closer he was over the last two seasons, when he saved 93 games with a 1.32 ERA, 1.59 FIP and 13.4 strikeouts per nine innings with an average fastball velocity of 96 mph, according to Baseball Info Solutions (h/t FanGraphs). During last postseason, Holland was absolutely filthy, allowing one run in 11 innings and striking out 15 hitters.
This year, Holland's velocity has dropped to under 94 mph and even further down as of late. He has a 3.83 ERA and is striking out 9.9 hitters per nine. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has dropped dramatically to a career-low 1.88 from 5.08 over the previous two seasons.
Holland is not alone in these struggles, though. Herrera, a dominant bullpen arm at times in his career, was great in 2014. He had a 1.41 ERA and in the playoffs allowed three runs in 15 innings (1.80 ERA) and struck out 16.
He started out this year in the same form. In his first 55.1 innings, Herrera had a 1.95 ERA, and opponents hit .181 against him. But in his last 10 outings, starting on Aug. 22, the 25-year-old right-hander has a 7.71 ERA with eight earned runs allowed in 9.1 innings. The majority of that damage came in back-to-back outings on Sept. 11 and 14 when he surrendered three earned runs in each, but since then, Herrera has had consecutive scoreless innings without allowing a run, though he did give up a hit and a walk Friday.
Whatever happens between now and Game 1 of the American League Division Series for the Royals, the fact is that the bullpen's immaculate facade has cracked, aside from Davis. Holland and Herrera have had their skin pulled back, and instead of robotic parts, there are human ones.
That is enough to strip the Royals of their intimidation factor in October. And unless their questionable starting pitching steps up next month or both relievers return to last season's form, that could be enough to cost the team late-inning losses when it can least afford them.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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