1. General Manager Meetings Negotiations
Like muscle cars at an auto show, they're lined up all shiny and gleaming. Cole Hamels. Matt Kemp. Carl Crawford. Andre Ethier.
Want 'em? Make an offer. Vroom!
General managers are meeting in the desert this week, and that sandstorm of rumors blowing in from Phoenix is real. This is where the groundwork was laid for the three-way deal that sent Curtis Granderson from the Tigers to the Yankees, Max Scherzer from the Diamondbacks to the Tigers and Edwin Jackson from the Tigers to the Diamondbacks after the 2009 season.
Brad Lidge went from the Astros to the Phillies at the GM meetings in 2007. The Cardinals laid the foundation for the deal that sent David Freese to the Angels for Peter Bourjos at the GM meetings last year.
Really, the Hot Stove League begins in earnest this week as clubs look for matches to fill their needs to avoid writing ludicrous checks in the free-agent market later this winter. Oh, those checks still will get written, largely. But don't underestimate the urgency for clubs to get a jump on trade talks in hopes of filling their needs that way.
To that end, one executive predicted to Bleacher Report in September that the game is going to see a whole lot of "bad contracts" moved this winter. Why? Well, look around. There are a lot of those out there, and it makes too much sense for one club to foist its problem player/contract off on another club and take that club's problem player/contract back in return.
Fresh starts, you know?
Do that math. The Dodgers' four-outfielders problem from 2014 multiplies this year: Highly touted Joc Pederson, the 2014 Triple-A Pacific Coast League MVP, is ready for prime time. Add him to the Yasiel Puig/Kemp/Crawford/Ethier mix. Add to that a newly reconstructed Dodgers front office led by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, and the Dodgers have to deal.
Crawford is owed $62 million over the next three seasons, Kemp $107 million over the next five and Ethier $53.5 million over the next three.
In Atlanta, where veteran John Hart has taken over as general manager, the Braves owe B.J. Upton some $46 million over the next three years, and Justin Upton has one year and $14.5 million left. If the Braves don't divest themselves of both Uptons (ah, that old all-Upton Sports Illustrated cover featuring B.J., Justin and Kate seems so ancient now, doesn't it?), they will look strongly at dealing one.
With Hamels, 31 next season, the issue isn't so much a bad contract as a bad and poorly constructed Phillies team with few good rebuilding options other than to trade Hamels for prospects. The lefty, who is guaranteed $96 million through 2018, has a limited no-trade clause. But that could be exchanged for, say, the acquiring team guaranteeing to exercise his $20 million option for 2019.
There is no reason for the Phillies not to aggressively shop him given at least three rich clubs with prospect-stocked farm systems are looking for pitching this winter: the Cubs, Red Sox and Dodgers.
If, say, the Cubs can land Hamels, it will give them more free-agent money to spread elsewhere while significantly filling one enormous rotation need.
Stay tuned. The fun is just beginning.
2. Potential (Likely?) Cubs Moves
Free-agent catcher Russell Martin is drawing as much early-winter interest as anybody, and one NL executive predicts the Cubs could make a serious statement in the NL Central by signing him.
"Jon Lester, James Shields, Russell Martin...I think the Cubs are going to get two of them, if not all three," the executive says. "You've got relationships, and that's the key. You've got Shields and Joe Maddon [who worked together in Tampa Bay], you've got Lester and Theo Epstein [who were together in Boston].
"I think they're going to open their purse this winter. They're going to spend money. They need Russell Martin, and it's going to be a huge loss to Pittsburgh. He was damn near their MVP. You can talk about Andrew McCutchen, but the way Martin handles a pitching staff, wow."
Martin, who turns 32 in mid-February, hit .290/.402/.430 with 11 homers and 67 RBI for the Pirates last summer.
If the Cubs sign Martin, Welington Castillo could be packaged in a deal for, say, a pitcher. And it would send the Pirates scrambling, with only Chris Snyder and Tony Sanchez as their backstops.
3. Ichiro Suzuki Speaks, Cooperstown Listens
Don't order that retirement cake just yet for legendary outfielder Ichiro Suzuki. The free-agent outfielder told MLB Network he absolutely intends to play in 2015—which comes as no surprise, in that he's only 156 hits short of 3,000 for the MLB portion of his career.
But those sighs of relief you hear after Ichiro's proclamation aren't just coming from Japan: Had he decided to hang 'em up, it could have sent Cooperstown into overwhelming gridlock five years from now.
You might recall that a certain fella named Derek Jeter has just retired? Already, Hall of Fame officials are anticipating crowds for Jeter's induction could hit 125,000 in 2020, well past the record 80,000 who attended the inductions of Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn in 2007.
Had Ichiro retired, there's no telling how big the pilgrimage to Cooperstown might have been in 2020. The wait for a slice at Sal's Pizza on Main Street could have lasted several days.
4. Autumnal Change in the Air?
Every November, GMs gather and everyone knows what to expect from Milwaukee's Doug Melvin.
He's been pushing his pet project for years: bringing sanity to September roster expansion. And it's way, way overdue.
Talk to any manager in the game, and they all agree (or, let me put it this way: I haven't polled every single one of the 30, but I've yet to talk with a manager who is not in favor): Clubs should be able to call up as many minor leaguers as they want in September, but rosters should be frozen for each series at an arranged number. Maybe it's 28, maybe it's 30.
Once the number is agreed to, clubs would travel in September with however many extra minor leaguers they want. But when the Yankees play the Red Sox, for example, each club would have to designate 30 players who are active.
The point of this is to guarantee the integrity of the pennant races and refrain from situations in which one team has 14 pitchers in its bullpen. September call-ups are important, but there is no good reason roster rules should change—and risk inequality—during the most important month of the year.
The GMs cannot unilaterally change this rule (biggest obstacle: the players' union), but they can strongly urge the owners to back the change. And they should.
5. Free-Agent Power Rankings
My weekly take as agents bluster, suitors cluster and bean counters muster the courage to write those checks...
1. Michael Cuddyer (signs with Mets, two years, $21 million): One way to avoid a bidding war? Strike early and swing away! You go, Mets.
2. Russell Martin (.290/.402/.430, 11 HRs, 67 RBI): Suddenly hot and available. Buccos might walk the plank in the NL Central if they don't retain him.
3. Pablo Sandoval (.279/.324/.415, 16 HRs, 73 RBI): Panda wants six years, says his agent. Giants have no in-house solution at third if he leaves.
4. Victor Martinez (.335/.409/.565, 32 HR, 103 RBI): One of 12 who rejected a qualifying offer by Monday's deadline, Martinez, 36 next month, led the AL in OBP (.409) and OPS (.974).
5. Jon Lester (16-11, 2.46, 1.10 WHIP): Baseball gods speculating he'll sign before Max Scherzer and James Shields. Baseball gods have Theo Epstein haircut and wear Joe Maddon lookalike glasses.
6. Virginia is for (NL East) Lovers
With Cuddyer in the Mets' fold, joining franchise icon David Wright, the NL East now has cornered the market on all five first-round picks to come out of the tiny Tidewater area in the southeast corner of Virginia between 1997 and 2005.
Talk about a baseball-rich area.
Cuddyer was a first-round pick in 1997 (Twins) and Wright in 2001 (Mets).
Then, B.J. Upton was a first-round pick in 2002 (Rays) and his brother, Justin, was a first-round pick in 2005 (Diamondbacks). Both, of course, now play for the Braves.
And Ryan Zimmerman was a first-round pick in 2005 by the Nationals, where he continues to play.
Cuddyer, as classy a player as there is in the game, gave Mets fans a quick Instagram hello Monday.
7. Santa Claus Plays for the Cubs
Heard the one about Cubs phenom Kris Bryant meeting the Cubs fan and memorabilia collector?
A man was going to buy a Bryant bat and tweeted at Bryant just to make sure it was authentic. Bryant heard the price, $850, and told the guy via Twitter that it was ridiculous, and he'd just send him a bat. So he did.
Bet we don't hear a cooler story than this all winter.
8. Final Take on Giants-Royals
One longtime scout was entertained but not too impressed.
"That was one of the worst World Series I ever saw," the man who has been scouting for more than a half-century told B/R the other day. "Each side had one starting pitcher. Yordano Ventura was good for Kansas City. Madison Bumgarner was great. The rest of them stunk."
Call it like you see it, brother.
(And man, it's hard to argue.)
"I've never seen anything like Bumgarner," the scout continued. "He's easy to watch. As great as Clayton Kershaw is, he kind of puts you to sleep with all that wasted motion. Not this guy. He puts it right there and lets it fly."
9. Last word
New Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi at his introductory press conference last week:
"We're the Dodgers. We have incredible resources. We have high expectations. We need to be the best at everything."
Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report. He has over two decades of experience covering MLB, including 14 years as a national baseball columnist at CBSSports.com.
Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball @ScottMillerBbl.
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