There have been some rumblings of late that the Detroit Tigers are going to allow Placido Polanco to walk via free agency, turning the keys to the candy store over to Scott Sizemore.
Ranked as the team’s seventh-best prospect by Baseball America prior to the season, he did little to hinder that ranking, posting the following statistics between Double- and Triple-A:
520 At Bats
.308 Batting Average (160 Hits)
17 Home Runs
66 RBI
88 Runs
21 Stolen Bases
.389 On Base Percentage
.500 Slugging Percentage
Exactly what is there to complain about there? The 2006 fifth-round draft pick will be 25 years old by the time the 2010 season starts and now seems like the perfect time to see exactly what they have. What are they waiting for?
There was some justified concerns entering the 2009 season, as he had his season abruptly ended on June 3 when he fractured his wrist. More than a year removed, he proved that the injury was not one that was going to hinder his performance at the plate.
He hit .307 at Double-A (228 AB) and .308 at Triple-A (292 AB), so he was awfully consistent. To further that, he had just one month (.279 in July) where he hit under .300.
His averages at both levels came courtesy of potentially unrealistic BABIP (.353 at Double-A and .349 at Triple-A), but it is very likely that he can post an average in the .270-.280 range in the major leagues.
The decrease will come from decreased luck, but I wouldn’t be overly concerned with the strikeouts getting much higher than they were last season. While he posted a 20.2 percent strikeout rate at Double-A, he reduced it to 16.8 percent upon being promoted to Triple-A.
In all likelihood he falls somewhere in the middle, though even if he does regress all the way back to his Double-A numbers, he should still be able to hit well enough.
The power is not likely to be much above the 15 home run mark, putting 40.7 percent of his balls in the air last season. Still, as long as he can produce extra base hits, the Tigers will be happy.
Along with the 17 HR, Sizemore added 38 doubles and five triples. That certainly brings a favorable comparison to Polanco, who had 45 extra base hits for the Tigers (while hitting .285).
Sizemore’s speed is likely what we’ve seen from him last season, the potential to swipe 15-20 bases. He’s not a burner and he’s not a big-time power bat, so don’t look to him expecting the potential for a 25/25 season or better, like you can for some of the top 2B in the game.
He is likely to go 10/10, at the least, and with regular at bats could find the 15/15 range.
Polanco has only had three seasons with double-digit home runs and two with double-digit stolen bases.
While he would have an advantage in the average department, he turns 34 years old today and has no upside left. He is what he is, and for fantasy owners, that just isn’t much.
Sizemore has the high-end potential to be a usable option in all formats at some point in his career, though 2010 is not likely to be that season.
Even if the Tigers do use him as their starting second baseman, it’s not likely that he assumes a prominent role in the batting order, limiting his opportunities for both R and RBI.
In deeper formats, however, who require a middle infielder, he definitely is a player worth having on your radar.
We’ll get more into projections for him as the off-season progresses, but he at least brings potential to help across the board, at least a little bit, as opposed to many of the low-end middle infield options.
What do you think of Sizemore? Should the Tigers give him the job? Is he going to be a viable fantasy option?
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