Over the last couple of days, I have read every rumor I can find about the Mariners: which free agents are they interested in, which players are they looking at in trades, etc...etc...etc...and about the only logical conclusion at this point is that the Mariners, especially GM Z, are seriously looking at every big-name free agent on the market.
What that means is that the front office is in a position to spend, and if ownership agrees, the M's could have a very different look in 2010.
Let's take a look at the players that the M's have been linked to so far.
Lyle Overbay: First Base, Toronto Blue Jays
Overbay has roots in the Pacific Northwest. This seems to me to be the only reason the M's are even considering a trade for a past-his-prime first baseman who is decent at defense, decent offensively, but excellent in neither area.
Overbay would come with a price tag of around $8 million. He bats in mid-upper .200's, has moderate power (16 HR last year) and has never really been known for his bat or his glove.
While it has been suggested that the Blue Jays may be willing to pay some of his salary (by other authors on this site). I find that hard to believe as the Jays are trying to cut payroll, and eating part of the salary of a player you're trading is essentially the opposite of that strategy.
Acquiring Overbay would be fine by me if the M's weren't paying the majority of his salary, but as it seems that that Blue Jays would be unwilling to take on any of his salary, I tend to agree with Griffin Cooper on this one. I don't think it makes any sense to take on a player that would produce at the level that one of our minor leaguers could produce at roughly 16 times the cost.
I don't think there's anyone who would say that Mike Carp couldn't put up a line of .260, 15-20 HR, 60-70 RBI in a full season. That would be what the M's would get out of Overbay, essentially, only at a lot steeper price tag. I'd pass on this one if I was Jack Z.
Jason Bay: Left Field, Free Agent
In any other ballpark, Bay would be an intriguing possibility, but not in SafeCo. He is exactly the type of hitter the M's need to stay away from: a right handed power hitter with a poor glove.
Bay has been consistent (five straight years of 30-plus HR, 100-plus RBI) but those numbers wouldn't translate to SafeCo. It's murder on right handed sluggers, as was shown by Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. And with the current lineup, Bay would definitely not have as many opportunities to drive runs in, making it even less likely that the M's will sign him.
Add to that Bay's asking price (reportedly $18 million, five years) and this is a definite pass for me.
Remember, last year Jack Z. started using sabermetrics to scout potential additions to the team, so, using advanced statistics, if the player doesn't fit the park, then he's probably not going to be added to the team.
John Lackey: Pitcher, Free Agent
John Lackey is an intriguing potential signing for a couple of reasons. First, he's a top-of-the-rotation starter who would be a great No. 2 behind Felix. And second, signing him would hurt the Angels, thus helping the M's even more.
That's about where my support for that signing ends however, as he has failed to win 15 games or more in all but one of his big league seasons (2007 he won 19). Not exactly ace stuff, but because he's the best starter on the free agent market who doesn't have injury problems, he's going to make a killing, somewhere in the $17-20 million range.
That's far too much to pay for a No. 2 starter, at least in my opinion. I expect the M's to make a serious offer, but they will probably not be the team to sign him as he will probably sign with a larger market team.
Now lets look at my wish list for this offseason. The M's have several holes and a dire need for offense.
First Base
The M's got decent production out of their first baseman last year, Russell Branyan, and while I like Russell the Muscle, I would prefer a player with a proven track record of consistency, and far fewer injury problems. His demand that the M's give him a multiyear deal in the $4 million per year range also makes me wary of signing him.
The three names on the free agent list that stand out to me are Carlos Delgado, Adam LaRoche, and Nick Johnson.
Personally, I would like to see the M's sign two of these guys, preferably Adam LaRoche and Carlos Delgado.
Delgado is coming off an injury plagued '09, and he's getting up there in years, but he would probably come cheap, and he's got a proven track record of power. He would be an ideal fit as the everyday designated hitter, while occasionally filling in at first base as necessary.
Laroche is the top first baseman in this free agent crop in my opinion. He is a decent defender, and he has pop in his bat. He can hit for a relatively high average for a slugger, and best of all, like Delgado, he's a lefty. He hit 25 home runs in Atlanta this past season.
I would expect that number to go upwards of 30-35 were he in SafeCo. The downside here, however, is that he wouldn't be cheap. He would want somewhere in the $8-12 million per year range and probably a long term deal of four or more years.
However, he's only 30, and he would be a great fit in SafeCo.
Second Base
Jose Lopez is currently the team's second baseman, and the teams second best power hitter behind Russell Branyan.
While he is a below average defensive second baseman, he is an above average offensive second baseman, which is why I think he should be playing at a different position in 2010, possibly even third base, barring the re-signing of Adrian Beltre (which is looking more and more unlikely with each passing day).
A lot of people will say that Lopez doesn't have the range to play third, and while I tend to agree with them, we do have the best defensive shortstop in all of baseball to pick up the slack, something that is a lot harder to do with Lopez playing second.
There are several internal options at second base. One is Matt Tuiasasopo, but the same problems that the M's have with Lopez at second would still be there with Tui. He just doesn't have the range to be a great defensive second baseman.
Then there is Dustin Ackley, who, if Michael Saunders is everything he's projected to be, will more than likely end up playing at second when he gets called up. But he's not quite ready, which means the M's need a stopgap.
The only guy that fits that bill is Orlando Hudson, in my opinion, and he will come relatively cheap, considering his skill set and the declining market.
Last season he signed a one year, $3.5 million offer from the Dodgers, but they are unlikely to offer him arbitration, which means that the M's could pick him up for around $3-4 million, and not risk losing draft picks in the process. Defensively Hudson has lost a step, but he's still average to above average. Offensively, he is well above average and would make an excellent No. 2 hitter behind Ichiro.
Catcher
Personally, I don't find that there's a major hole at catcher. Rob Johnson isn't anything spectacular on either side of the game, but he will do as a nice backup.
Adam Moore will more than likely start (and complete) the 2010 season as the starting catcher.
Starting Pitcher
Starting pitching is a big need for every team every year, and usually there isn't much, if anything, available.
There are a couple of intriguing possibilities for the M's to look at, none of them named John Lackey.
First, I love Rich Harden, despite the injury issues, and I think that he would make a fantastic No. 2 pitcher behind Felix Hernandez. He has ace-type stuff, and the only thing that makes this a high-risk, high-reward signing is his extensive injury history. I think the M's offer him an incentive loaded three-year deal.
In case Harden does get injured, how about another pitcher with an injury history longer than this article: Ben Sheets. Sheets is another one of those ace level starters who can't seem to stay healthy, but when he is, he's one of the best pitchers in the game.
A one year, incentive-laden deal would benefit both sides. Sheets would view it as a low pressure situation, pitching in Seattle, as he wouldn't be the staff ace, and the team (at this point) isn't expected to win a World Series title. The M's get a No. 3 pitcher who would be a No. 1 on most teams.
And finally, an oldie, but a goody: Erik Bedard. I know what you're thinking: I must be out of my mind. But think about this: When Bedard was healthy, he was one of the best pitchers in the league, and he knows that Seattle has the best park for his skill set.
He would come cheap, as his injury history will keep most teams from signing him, and he already knows what its like to pitch with that defense behind him. Another one year, incentive-laden deal benefits both sides once again.
In the end, this is what my 2010 Seattle Mariners would look like:
DH—Carlos Delgado
1B—Adam Laroche
2B—Orlando Hudson
3B- Jose Lopez
SS—Jack Wilson/Carlos Triunfel (should Wilson get hurt)
C—Adam Moore
LF—Michael Saunders/Dustin Ackley
CF—Franklin Gutierrez
RF—Ichiro
SP1—Felix Hernandez
SP2—Rich Harden
SP3—Ben Sheets
SP4—Erik Bedard
SP5—Ryan Rowland-Smith
Long Relievers—Ian Snell* Luke French* Brandon Morrow*
Short Relievers—Shawn Kelley, Phillipe Aumont, Josh Fields
Setup—Mark Lowe
Closer—David Aardsma
*All available as replacement starters should one of the starters get injured.
Bench Players would be Ken Griffey Jr. Jack Hanahan, and Josh Wilson or Tui.
Let me know what you guys think. I'm not saying this is going to happen, but I figured while everyone else is speculating, why don't I throw out some speculations of my own?
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