Any fool can pick an All-Star starting lineup. All you have to do is sit at your computer and click away until you reach the voting limit or you get carpal tunnel syndrome, whichever comes first.
But choosing which pitchers should start the All-Star Game? That's up to Ned Yost and Terry Collins. And because the game counts, they can't make the call without putting some thought into it.
We know which players made the first cut for the American League and National League rosters, which were announced Tuesday evening. Yost, who will manage the AL All-Stars at Petco Park on July 12, has five starting pitchers to choose from. Collins, the NL manager, has a whopping eight to choose from.
Which pitchers are the right guys for the job? Let's pretend we know what we're talking about weigh the options and figure it out!
American League
The Options: Marco Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays), Cole Hamels (Texas Rangers), Danny Salazar (Cleveland Indians), Chris Sale (Chicago White Sox), Steven Wright (Boston Red Sox)
These five have something important in common. So long as the probable pitchers at ESPN.com are in order, none of these guys are slated to pitch Sunday. That means none of them will be barred by rule from toeing the rubber in San Diego.
However, Marco Estrada's status is uncertain. He's dealing with a bad back that, as TSN's Tony Ambrogio reported, is likely to push back his next start. Technically, that wouldn't bar him from starting. Realistically, it'll probably cause the Toronto Blue Jays to insist Estrada not pitch at all.
That narrows the search down to just four options, and now we're on our own. Per Scott Merkin of MLB.com, Yost refused to tip his hand when he was asked about the topic:
If Yost wants to go with the guy who's earned the start over multiple seasons, he'll find himself leaning so far toward Chris Sale that he'll actually be violating the lefty's personal space. This is the Chicago White Sox ace's fifth straight All-Star appearance. All those have come in the American League, and he's still waiting on his first start.
If Yost wants to go with the guy who's having the best season in 2016, there's an argument. At 2.36 and 10.3, Danny Salazar has the best ERA and strikeouts-per-nine rate among his options. Add in his 10-3 record, and that's arguably enough to overrule Sale's 14-2 record, 2.93 ERA and 8.9 K/9 rate.
Another thing to consider is how Yost's guy would match up against the National League's starting lineup. Collins hasn't picked a designated hitter yet, but we know who the other eight hitters are:
That's four right-handed hitters, two left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters. Put a right-hander on the mound, and it's an even split between righty batters and lefty batters. Put a left-hander on the mound, and he's looking at six right-handed batters. Potentially seven if Collins picks Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Wil Myers or a number of other right-handed options to be his DH.
That doesn't bode well for Cole Hamels, who has been hit harder by righty batters this season than any of Yost's options. But it doesn't crush Sale's chances. He's actually handled righty batters better than Salazar and Steven Wright. And not just in 2016, either.
That makes Sale an ideal candidate to start. And for what it's worth, his manager has no objections to the idea.
"I would like to see (Sale) do whatever he wants to do," Robin Ventura said, via Paul Skrbina of the Chicago Tribune. "He's earned the right to do it. Whether they ask him to do it is another thing. ... To be the guy who is asked to start is special."
Verdict: Chris Sale
National League
The Options: Jake Arrieta (Chicago Cubs), Madison Bumgarner (San Francisco Giants), Johnny Cueto (San Francisco Giants), Jose Fernandez (Miami Marlins), Jon Lester (Chicago Cubs), Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals), Noah Syndergaard (New York Mets), Julio Teheran (Atlanta Braves)
Hoping for Madison Bumgarner to draw the assignment? Too bad. He's slated to start Sunday. Unless the San Francisco Giants call that off (and they won't), he's nixed from consideration.
That leaves seven options, one of whom is one of Collins' guys. As Adam Rubin of ESPN.com notes, at least two pundits are reading into that:
Noah Syndergaard wouldn't be a bad choice. He's rocking a 2.41 ERA and an 11.0 K/9, and he's walking only 1.3 batters per nine innings to boot. His peripherals, including a microscopic 1.88 FIP, rate him as the best of Collins' choices.
Plus, there's the possible entertainment value of Syndergaard taking the bump. His average fastball of 98.2 miles per hour is the highest ever recorded for a starting pitcher, and he's routinely climbed into triple digits. If given a chance to air it out in a short stint, he might make even Aroldis Chapman jealous.
However, that idea could make Collins and the rest of the New York Mets feel uneasy. Syndergaard is pitching with a bone spur in his right elbow. Logic says the Mets shouldn't push their luck with that.
If Syndergaard is off the board, the legacy candidates will be 2015 Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta and veterans Johnny Cueto and Jon Lester. With a 2.33 ERA to his name, Arrieta is also having a darn good season this year despite a recent slump.
Or, Collins could go straight for the matchup advantage. This year's AL lineup does present one of those:
Whoever gets the ball for the NL will be facing a lineup with six right-handed batters. This makes Jose Fernandez an attractive option. He's not only doing the best against righty batters this year, but by far the best dating back to his rookie year in 2013.
There's more working in Fernandez's favor. The 2.69 ERA he has this year has lowered his career ERA to 2.47. Among starters with at least 60 starts since 2013, that ranks behind only (the currently injured) Clayton Kershaw. And with a 13.1 K/9, Fernandez is also working on the third-highest single-season strikeout rate ever for a starting pitcher.
Syndergaard and Arrieta are two really good choices. If Collins goes with either of them, he won't be going wrong.
Fernandez, though, looks like the best choice he can make.
Verdict: Jose Fernandez
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked, and are current through play on Monday, July 4.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments