If in 2006, you told the New York Mets that they held two of the future's top closers in their grasp in Heath Bell and Billy Wagner, they would have questioned your sanity. In a season that the Mets fought their way to the NLCS and watched Wagner, Chad Bradford, Pedro Feliciano, and Duaner Sanchez each excel in their assigned roles, why would they even consider Bell, who appeared in just 22 games and posted an ERA above five, one of their bullpen's best?
After three seasons, they had seen enough.
On November 15, 2006, the 28 year old Bell was traded, along with fellow reliever, Royce Ring, to the San Diego Padres for outfielder Ben Johnson and reliever Jon Adkins. The Mets saw little return out of their haul, as Johnson would appear in nine games, and Adkins would appear in just one. The Padres' gamble, on the other hand, paid immediate dividends. Bell adjusted well to his new role with San Diego, posting a record of 6-4 to go along with an ERA of 2.02.
Needless to say, the Padres were impressed. The following season, they promoted him to the eighth inning role, setting up the ninth inning for legendary closer, Trevor Hoffman. He excelled in this role as well, appearing in more than 70 gamed for the second straight season and posting a record of 6-6 and an ERA of 3.58 for a Padres team that struggled.
The next season, the long time Padre, Hoffman, signed on as the closer for the Milwaukee Brewers, and the Padres were left with a gap in their own bullpen. Instead of scouring the free agent market and paying top dollar for a closer to play for a team that wasn't expected to compete, the team handed Bell the job. He thrived as the team's closer, striking out more than ten batters per nine innings and converting a league leading 42 saves, to go with an ERA of 2.71. In 2010, his second year as the team's closer, Bell was practically untouchable. The opposition hit just .221 against him, as he punched out more than 11 batters per nine innings and allowed just one home run over the course of the entire season, posting an ERA of just 1.93, and Bill James, stat projection extraordinaire, expects much of the same out of Bell in 2011.
So why is now the time to trade Heath Bell?
There are a couple of reasons, but for the Padres, the main reason is money. Because he broke into the major leagues at an older age, Bell has been providing the Padres' with maximum value over the last few seasons. Since joining the Padres in 2007, Bell has cost the Padres just $6.06 million, while logging 251.1 innings, converting 91 saves, and posting an ERA of 2.56 over that same period of time. However, after a season that saw him dominate the National League in the ninth inning yet again, Bell is about to earn a hefty raise in his final year of arbitration. Though a price tag of somewhere between $6-10 million is reasonable for a closer of Bell's caliber, the Padres may find that a little rich for their blood over the course of the season.
The second reason is Bell's looming free agency. Even if he has a mediocre season in 2011, his track record as the Padres' closer should effectively price them out of their range. Though 2010 was a difficult off-season to project a closer's price tag, with Rafael Soriano yet to sign and Mariano Rivera's true value hidden, thanks to his Yankee loyalty, the 2012 free agent market is filled to the brim with closers, including players like Jonathon Broxton, Matt Capps, Francisco Cordero, Brad Lidge, Joe Nathan, Jonathon Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez, Koji Uehara, and Jose Valverde, but Bell may be the best of the bunch.
So how can we determine his value? In 2009, the best available closer was Jose Valverde of the Houston Astros. He converted just 25 saves in 54 innings, for the Astros in 2009, to go along with an ERA of 2.33. Eventually, he would sign with the Detroit Tigers for two years and $14 million. Valverde, like Soriano in 2010, was plagued by a weak market for closers, with a limited number of suitors. Bell will be able to fetch much more than $7 million a year, and with his track record of health and performance, should receive more guaranteed years as well.
One contract he'll certainly look to surpass is the three year, $37.5 million deal that Brad Lidge signed with the Philadelphia Phillies during his perfect season in 2008. With Bell's track record, he should have no trouble earning at the very least, four years, $48 million on the open market, with teams like the Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, and New York Mets all potentially in need of a closer. Once again, he will be way out of the Padres' price range.
The third main reason the Padres should look to deal Bell now is the return they would receive, in prospects, for a full season of the closer. In the past, teams have been reluctant to trade top prospects for a closer before a season begins, due in large part to the streaky tendencies of the reliever in general. That shouldn't be a concern for teams acquiring Bell. In years past, top closers have fetched at least one top prospect. When the Phillies acquired Lidge in the 2007 off-season, they traded talented outfielder, Michael Bourn. The Cubs sent talented pitcher, Jose Ceda, to the Marlins for Kevin Gregg, the Dodgers acquired George Sherrill from the Orioles for Josh Bell, and the Twins sent top catching prospect, Wilson Ramos, to the Nationals for Matt Capps.
For a full season of Bell, the Padres are in a position to demand two top prospects for their dominant closer, and may have potential suitors waiting on their doorstep in the American League. Two teams that were heavily involved in the Cliff Lee bidding, the New York Yankees and Texas Rangers, could both benefit from Bell's services, and have the prospects to make it happen. Despite having Mariano Rivera, the Yankees were rumored to be interested in Rafael Soriano this off-season, wanting to shore up their bullpen, since the starting pitching market was weak, after Lee. They've been dangling top prospect, Jesus Montero, for quite some time now, and could create an enticing package to offer the Padres. The Rangers are in much of the same boat. Without Lee, their rotation could use a boost from their 2010 closer, Neftali Feliz, and after failing to acquire Matt Garza from the Tampa Bay Rays, they could trade for Bell and move Feliz into the rotation.
A number of other teams could also be interested in Bell's services, including the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, who are assumed to be Soriano's last real suitor. The price, in prospects, may be enough to drive them away, however, as San Diego would certainly love to have top prospect, Mike Trout. In the National League, the St. Louis Cardinals, Milwaukee Brewers, and Florida Marlins could all use Bell, in different ways, and those are just a number of his suitors.
Using his performance, future price, and potential return in prospects as their reasoning, the Padres would have no trouble finding a suitor for Bell. Even still, there are reasons why they would be reluctant to move him as well. The first of those reasons is the depth in their bullpen beginning to dwindle. The bullpen was their strongest leg in 2010, and they've been trading from it's depth all off-season. In November, they acquired outfielder Cameron Maybin from the Marlins for relievers Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb, and in December, they traded relievers Adam Russell and Cesar Ramos as part of a package to the Rays for shortstop, Jason Bartlett. Though they've signed relievers like Luis Perdomo and Dustin Moseley, they aren't of the same quality.
Trading Bell, their best reliever, may be akin to shooting themselves in the foot. On one hand, if the Padres hope to contend in the NL West this season, they'll need Bell's services. On the other hand, if they don't move Bell now or before the trade deadline, they will have lost the chance to add to their farm system.
If the Padres are convinved they can win this season, they will have one shot to win the World Series with Bell as their closer, before he likely skips town and heads to the highest bidder in the following off-season. If they decide to go into a small rebuilding season in 2011, they could move Bell for top prospects, and use last season's set-up man, Luke Gregerson, as the closer. In 2010, he posted a record of 4-7 with an ERA of 3.22 (2.86 FIP), and used much of the same motive as Bell, striking out more than ten batters per nine innings while walking just over two. If the Padres decide that Gregerson is ready to become the next Heath Bell, moving the interim closer may be an easier decision.
The hardest thing for any team to do, however, is trade a fan favorite. After already having moved the face of the Padres, Adrian Gonzalez, earlier in the off-season, General Manager Jed Hoyer would have a tough time selling a Bell deal to a tough fan base. Sometimes, a general manager just has to close his eyes and pull the trigger. While it may be tough to trade a fan favorite now, it could reap huge rewards in the future.
Unless the Padres go on an unbelievable run and are running away with the division by the trade deadline, Bell's days in San Diego seem numbered. The Padres would be foolish to let him leave as a free agent this off-season (with draft compensation up in the air as the league reconfigures it's collective bargaining agreement), when they can add several quality pieces much closer to being major league ready with a trade. They have the option of waiting until the trade deadline until teams are desperate, but there are desperate teams out there now.
It's time for the Padres to cash in on Heath Bell.
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