The Rookie of the Year awards were announced yesterday. In the National League, Florida's Chris Coghlan won the award. He was followed by J.A. Happ, Tommy Hanson, and Andrew McCutchen.
My personal picks, which I posted a few weeks ago, had McCutchen winning the award, with Hanson, and Colby Rasmus right behind him.
While much has already been written about the McCutchen-Coghlan debate, I was surprised to see that Rasmus, my third place pick, garnered such little support amongst actual voters. He received only one total point in the voting.
I think the reason Rasmus was overlooked by the voters is that so much of his value comes from playing a premium position, playing good defense at that position, and running the bases well.
Rasmus’s batting average of .251 pales in comparison to Coghlan’s .321 mark. He also trails Coghlan in some of the more advanced stats such as OBA. Coghlan’s bat was worth about 26 more runs than Rasmu’s this past season, a significant difference.
However, Rasmus makes up the difference with the glove. He was worth about 10 runs more than the average centerfielder. Meanwhile, Coghlan was 11 runs worse than the average leftfielder.
Throw in a seven-run difference for positional adjustments (based on their actual playing time), and 3.5-run difference for baserunning , and Rasmus actually edges Coghlan (albeit barely, and perhaps insignificantly) in value for the 2009 season.
Chris Coghlan was not a terrible choice for N.L. Rookie of the Year. He was just not my pick. But the lack of support for Colby Rasmus seems to demonstrate that voters are still underweighting defense, baserunning, and positional scarcity, while overweighing offense.